Why China won't attack Taiwan | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman

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GUEST BIO:
John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.

PODCAST INFO:

SOCIAL:

[LexClips]

Guest bio: John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.

[thegreatone]

I’m so glad that John told the truth that US care about Taiwan because Taiwan is an important US assets and not because of the political bs about democracy or people in Taiwan. 😂

[jasonhoman]

It’s wild that Taiwan semiconductor wasn’t mentioned as to why the U.S. is interested in protecting Taiwan

[douglasmatsenguest]

I love how simple and direct he is. People dance around things so they don’t have to say the thing out loud.
He just says it.

[royshaul]

I’m retired Navy and I agree 100% with John. Having real world experience in blue water AND amphibious operations … it is indescribably difficult to land, in force, on a heavily defended island. Your losses would be incredible even if you could make it ashore. It would require the entire destruction of the island and everything on it ….. and at that point, what have you accomplished?

[johnlee]

Im blown away how honest and to the point this guy is. None of this "democracy must protect other democracy" bullcrap I see on the internet all the time.

[rrngbol]

For the record, guy also said that Russia won't invade Ukraine

[jakewolf]

Taiwanese here, there's literally zero tension in our daily lives. I'm more worried about fixing the stuttering issue on my copy of Half-Life 1 than literally anything else going on.

[StickyKeys]

Lex you should bring a Taiwanese to talk about Taiwan and its state affairs. This guy is giving his view but with a western-centric lens.

[ivanclementecabrera]

"Elon musk said" is the new "my dad said"

[guydreamr]

Really impressed with Lex's relevant mention of geopolitical and military expert Elon Musk, who also thinks that tanks are now outdated due to the advent of anti tank weapons. Wait until Elon finds out that bullets can kill infantrymen.

[joelcon]

Lex never misses a chance to name drop Elon lmao

[JohnH-momb]

If you want to guarantee that China will invade Taiwan, then all you have to do is declare that Taiwan will be part of NATO in the foreseeable future. Worked in Ukraine.

[DrewbattleTheGreat]

I’ve been through the Taiwan straits. Craziest rough seas I’ve ever sailed on.

[randallrobertson]

During WW2 the United States actually did a study on invading Taiwan. ( Operation Causeway) Although it was only defended by about thirty thousand Japanese troops, the study revealed that Tawian would require a larger invasion force than Operation overlord to be successful, due to sea state and local geography, thus they decided to fight elsewhere. Now of course technology has changed in the interim, however that can be said for both sides. Like your guest I don't think it will come to violence in this matter. The CCP will seek other ways.

[Coffeepots]

This makes me think of all those people in the lead up to WW2 that thought the Maginot Line would hold the Germans back. 'Its so well fortified, the losses would be tremendous'

[Leonlion]

Points that made Chinese assault on Taiwan difficult (non exhaustive):
>There are only about 14 beaches suitable for an amphibious assault. Other locations are either too narrow or straight up cliffs.
>>These 14 beaches are known to the Taiwanese army so they are heavily fortified.

>Seas in general are really rough to sail through, and Taiwan Strait only has 2 calmer windows which is April and October. Other times are having waves that are too big to send troops through or covered in heavy fogs.

>Most of TSMC factories are close to the above mentioned beaches while next to military bases. So as long as China still want the chips, it is hard to do saturation bombing to control air and sea dominance.

>Modern satellites made it easy to predict if China is gathering its forces and resources near the coast. This gives Taiwan a much more time to prepare e.g. put sea mines across the Taiwan Strait, deploy tanks to guard the beaches, and coordinate with allies for preparation.

>Amphibious warfare is very hard mainly due to the fact that you can't just send all the ships at once.
>>First, any of the beaches aren't even that big to hold that many ships, so ships has to send troops in waves.
>>Second, what do you do with the sank ships that block other ships? Sank ships just make Chinese troops have to travel further from the sea to the beach
>>>Mind you, this is the troops, after going through hours of rough sea condition, risking getting bomb tf out by Taiwan navy/air force/sea mines, then in full gear, having to swim through the shallow sea, then face barrage of machine guns and tanks with nothing but guns.
>>Third, the sea/air dominance would be very hard to achieve with the density of missiles available in Taiwan. One of the highest in the world. It is simply a cost problem: (assuming 0 value in human life because China) training a pilot + building jet > missiles

Even going strictly by values and viability, the assault is still very hard to pull off. Let alone that US is doing more and more training for Taiwanese military and supplying with better weapons to effective deter China.

[spankminister]

You know, I wasn't previously worried but now that I hear Mearsheimer speak so confidently, I am.

[troyleyman]

A few counter point to this:

1. China wants to take Taiwan not because it has TSMC. Even if the island does not have TSMC China wants to unite with it because it is part of China. If it really comes down to a hot war, you cannot count on China will "tread lightly" because of TSMC. In fact, if China actually manages to take TW with TSMC intact, the engineers that actually matters will already been moved out and someone on our side will blow that infrastructure up like a certain pipeline.
2. Comparing this to Normandy is a mistake, sure they're both amphibious assaults that requires huge landing force, but the similarities stops there. Normandy stand in front of a whole continent. Aside from the stockpile that's already built up, they can manufacture their own weapons, ammunition, oil, coal, steel. TW is an island the size of Maryland, it isn't even self sufficient in food let alone anything else you might need to fight a war. We're talking about a few weeks supply for energy to keep the lights on and the trucks running.
3. China has MLRS that can hit the island directly from the mainland, a fraction the cost of what it is taking Russia to hit Ukrainian targets. Not to mention perhaps the largest and most advanced drone fleet. If by the time Chinese ground forces decides to land, and there are still a formidable defense force on the beachfront, then the air force, navy and rocket force didn't do their jobs. So if the US does not step in directly, the only thing TW has going for itself is that the Chinese military is really as incompetent as we hoped.

[alagieceesay]

I hope war doesn’t happen between Taiwan 🇹🇼 and China 🇨🇳