3 Reasons China Might be About to Invade Taiwan

With tensions between the US and China growing, and Xi's fixation on the "One China" Policy, we break down the three reasons Taiwan might be invaded: China's diminishing window of opportunity, spiralling relations with the US and their domestic problems.

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[saullucey]

I think its important to note, the U.S is largely clearing out outdated equipment to Ukraine, almost none of the U.S most modern equipment is in Ukraine. Additionally, learning from WWII, the U.S military is designed to sustained a prolonged two front conflict.

[gregkelly]

Any US / China conflict would be a naval affair. US naval assets are completely untouched by the Ukraine conflict.

[newsgeekus]

After Russia’s catastrophic Ukraine blunder, I think everyone is reviewing their basic assumptions and thinking about unintended consequences. While China might have a better than 50/50 chance, failure could result in regime change, and success may only be only a Pyrrhic victory. A weaken China could embolden their neighbors to reassert their South China Sea claims and for India to push China back to the line of control or further. Add in sanctions, blockades, foreign direct investment, possible internal descent and the risk vrs reward is not completely clear.

But leaders do do stupid things.

[Dimology]

I always wonder every time that "China invades Taiwan" story comes up, that nobody is actually talking about Taiwan and its defensive capabilities. Taiwan is not a grass field with sheep walking around and suddenly a million soldiers will come from China and everything will be finished in a day. First, if there is some sort of preparation to invade, Taiwan can see it. Second, Taiwan is a rich country and bought tonne of defensive equipment for one purpose only - invasion. Third, geographically Taiwan is rather hard to invade. And then we come to the last and biggest factor, USA will help out. So if China does invade, I don't think that success chance is good for China...

[paulogmf]

Next week : 5 reasons China definitely most likely probably will not invade Taiwan

[POCLEE]

One small mistake: Taiwan's current ruling party DPP's full name is Democratic Progressive Party, not Democratic People's Party.

[freddytang]

I swear I’ve seen like 500 videos on this topic in past year alone

[joshhillis]

Sorry guys, but to think the US has somehow depleted their munitions and military hardware is just incorrect... They've been clearing old inventory off to help in Ukraine and continually add stockpiles of the latest gear always.. that's why they are such a dominant force globally, but they most definitely are not "running low"..

[XA]

China will need months to gather the men and material in ports, in full view of US satellites and Taiwan. It will definitely not be a surprise and Taiwan will have months to make final preparations

[marcofava]

One thing that is very often not mentioned is that the Chinese Military has nowhere near the experience in actual active conflicts that the U.S. Military has, being that the last proper engagement the Chinese Military had was in the late 1970's with Vietnam and even those were mixed results, so everything they would be doing would be a first for the entire military establishment, and contrary to many other nations which have Militaries in the vein of China like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and so on (by that I mean without effective real-world experience in high-intensity conflicts and operations) is that the true real-world performance of Chinese military technology is still an unknown, especially their newer indigenous design, sure they've been used in small quantities in small regional conflicts but not to the extent of what the equipment (incidentally mostly American made) those nations field which has been constantly been used and their performance is a known quantity their capabilities and deficiencies and those can be planned around.

On top of that while there seems to be no major discontent coming from the population at the prospect of a possible invasion of Taiwan the sheer amount of casualties they would take should that operation go anything but perfectly might incite rebellion or at least major discontent in China (then again China much like Russia have historically put up with staggering losses in manpower and not batted an eye, although that was mostly always in civil wars or fighting in defense of their territory) which may disrupt their ability to maintain a cohesive war effort.

And also the economic ramifications would ensure that it won't become a drawn-out conflict as blockading China would effectively bring their economy to a standstill, and unlike Russia right now China does not have the wealth of natural resources to fall back on and keep at least their internal economy going. While the world would be initially impacted it would adjust to it, much like it has done with the absence of Russian gas.

In order for it to work out for China so many things would have to align and go perfectly right that it's probably more likely for Xi to show up in Macau at the world's largest Casino play the entire Chinese economy on 7 and win than everything to work perfectly for China in such an attack.

[frankbieser]

The big problem for China in invading Taiwan is that to do so would destroy everything that makes Taiwan worthwhile to China. A war in Taiwan would destroy it's manufacturing base which China sorely needs. It would also lead to ever greater trade restrictions from more countries (like Australia which China depends on for coal). It's possible Xi might do it just for the political "win" at home, but it would compound the economic pain they are already experiencing, and accelerate their economic collapse. Of course, this all depends on how insulated Xi is from practical realities.

[adamporter]

I think when you do "3 reasons why X might happen" and "3 reasons why X might not happen" videos, you should upload them at the same time. Makes them seem less clickbaity.

[jimmark]

We get most of our most sophisticated computer chips for our military from Taiwan. Until our 2 billion dollar computer chip plant is up and running here in America we can’t allow China to invade and China knows this. They know they can’t successfully invade if we commit our forces and I’m sure behind the scenes we’ve made it clear we will as it’s vital to our national security.

[ChadSimplicio]

With all that unemployed young (Han) Chinese, you'd think Xi would conscript them into the PLA, and ready them for the big push to "reintegrate the Renegade Province of Chinese Taipei into the PRC." For now, they need to deal with their economic issues, & clean up the massive flood damage.

[sauldean]

World leaders should focus on making this world a better place, we the ordinary people have no time for wars.

[loot]

I think something everyone should consider is that China will never invade Taiwan and never had intention to. If you look at it like that it actually looks like a very clever plan. Taiwan keep wasting money on unnecessary defence, as do the US and are 'living in fear'. Meanwhile China gets on with their daily business without an ounce of effort.

[toasteroven]

5:26 saying the CCP is the reasonable party is like saying a bear treats fish like friends.

[sogerc]

What better way to solve domestic issues than by creating more domestic issues.

[ammarkhalid]

TLDR Global in 2035: “Why China might be about to invade Taiwan”

[devanshtyagi]

"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near."