3 Reasons China Won’t Invade Taiwan

Consensus in the west seems to be that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’ but there are reasons to be sceptical of this consensus. In this video, we’re going to look at 3 reasons to think China won’t invade Taiwan.

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[taiwanisacountry]

To be honest I don't think it is a point against invading Taiwan simply because they have not specified a time for the invasion.... I can't remember the last time when an invading force was so kind as to tell in advance by when they were going to invade.

[feelin_fine]

I live in Taiwan, and I have to say that since the war in Ukraine and Taiwan's military reforms, I feel less worried about a Chinese invasion. It would make the PRC an international pariah, only increase already high levels of resistance among Taiwan's 23 million people (it's not Hong Kong in terms of size or challenge), be costly and bloody, tank the world economy (including China's) due to semiconductors, and threaten the much-prized political stability of the CCP.

[sonneh]

I remember the 'three reasons why Russia won't invade Ukraine' videos.

Problem is, we shouldn't rationalise the decisions of irrational dictators.

[joshuayang]

There's one more: China has been using Taiwan to redirect internal tensions and if they've invaded, they would need to find another way to do it even if they succeed.

[achernarchang]

As a Taiwanese, thank you for covering this topic again. I (and many fellow Taiwanese) surely hope people pay attention more to our situation.

Just a few thoughts:
Re Point 1: The CCP has always been known for its vagueness in language. They never put their words in absolute terms and always allow huge space for ambiguity. They hardly have any deadline in anything, but that doesn't mean they don't set goals. Relying on their lack of a hard deadline to suggest low likelihood of an invasion is... a bit of a stretch.

Re Point 2: Communist China's most militarily belligerent time in history was when it was poor (Korean War in the 50s, Sino-Indian War in the 60s, Invasion of Vietnam in the 70s etc). They might not want to wage a war to harm their economy, but their economy is already on a decline without war. Once China inevitably turns poor again, they won't have to worry about the economic/trade cost of an invasion.

Re Point 3: Very fair and valid!

I certainly wish we could afford such optimism as the video implies, but the reality is we can't. Of course I know your next video on this topic will touch on the pessimistic side and I look forward to it!

[deecee]

I think an additional point to note is that China won't just lose military forces attempting to take Taiwan. Taiwan maybe be a hedgehog but it has a few offensive capabilities, and a country of over 1 billion is VERY vulnerable to infrastructure attacks (like dams and power grids).

[nimaiiikun]

next episode, 3 reasons China will invade Taiwan. And next week, 3 reasons why Taiwan will invade China.

[atomatolol]

I wasn't really concerned china was going to invade Taiwan, but now that TLDR says they won't i am worried😰

[joshuawells]

I took a course on Modern China and my professor said there was Chinese politician who boasted that it would be easier for the PRC to buy Taiwan than to invade it. He also mentioned some inconsistencies with the One China Policy, namely that flights from the Mainland to Taiwan are through international terminals, not domestic.

[fleshbhones]

"my roommate wants to murder me but he hasn't added it to our shared calendar so I think I'm safe"

[walesruels]

On the "economic" point; countries have often invaded neighbouring countries/territories when their economies are weak, in order to distract their populations from the poor performance of their economies (and the Chinese economy isn't doing great right now, what with Evergrande teetering on the brink, record-high youth unemployment etc).

[Andromahlius]

"Europeans have a poor record of predicting China, so here's our prediction." Gold.

[muic]

Actually Taiwan could literally see an invasion coming. The PAVE PAW phased arrays on Leshan mountain could track naval targets due to its geological position despite being early warning radar to track ICBM and aerial targets originally.

[spartanparty]

The difficulty with this is that nations often do things that do not make logical sense, and that nationalism, and isolated leaders surrounded by obsequious aids tend to make such illogical decisions.

[matthewshields]

Many videos on this topic ignore the fact that reasons for an invasion do not have to be logical. Similar videos were made to giving logical reasons as to why Russian wouldn't invade Ukraine but at the end of the day it was just the irrational decision of one mad man.

[tyronejoshua]

I like these videos showing both sides

[davidschaftenaar]

Those are sound reasons. Another is the real risk of military intervention by the West. I would argue that the threshold for that has been significantly lowered by the war in Ukraine in a number of different ways. And China probably realizes too that they stand a snowball's chance in hell of actually capturing Taiwan's semiconductor industry intact.
In all likelihood they would just end up with a thoroughly destroyed new province that would be internationally recognized fairly quickly as an independent nation. Taiwan's current state of limbo on the international stage is mostly a result of the parties wanting to keep the peace and continue to trade. All of that goes right out the window the moment China invades.

[JamitMan]

Back around 2013, the Western Media were talking about North Korea almost every day and nothing happened at all.

[masterchinese]

Finally, a video about this topic that brings up the typhoon seasons! If landing on a limited amount of hostile beaches wasn't challenging enough, Mother Nature could wreak havoc if she wants.

[greatsky]

There is no country named Taiwan on this earth. The government on the island Taiwan is The Republic of China (ROC), whose recent legitimate constitution is of 1947, as the ROC ruled the whole China before The People's Republic of China (PRC) formed and take over the ROC.