Real Reason China Can't Invade Taiwan

I explore the geographical, political, and economic factors that make it unlikely for China to take control of Taiwan. From Russia's influence in the region to China's long-term strategic objectives, learn how geography, politics, and economics play a role in understanding this dynamic in this documentary about why China cannot invade Taiwan.

[chinneths]

3000 active troops? I do not believe that is correct. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Taiwan has 169, 000 active military personnel. This number includes the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps. Taiwan also has a reserve force of 1.66 million personnel.

[ironwolfF]

When you do an update of this video, you should include the Philippine's opening up of EIGHT military bases to the USA (one of the them overlooking the Taiwan - Philippine gap), AND Japan altering it's Constitution concerning matters of national defense, which has led to the deployment of military assets to it's southernmost islands (and covering Taiwan's northern flank).

[andyyang]

The _obvious_ roadblock to invading Taiwan isn't even hidden -- There had been no large scale amphibious operation since the Korean War, and the scale needed to invade Taiwan might be magnitudes above any amphibious operation ever attempted in history. China will be trying to invade an island with only a few suitable beaches, requiring enormous amounts of vessals to transport people, and even more vessals to keep supply lines open. Unlike Incheon or Normandy, the Chinese will be landing on hostile territory, with no chance of the local populace in support. There is also no telling whether 70+ years of technological advancements made amphibious assualts easier or harder.

[csimet]

The overall lesson here... as demonstrated so many times... never, ever underestimate the will of people fighting on and for their own territory (Vietnam, Afghanistan, Taiwan, Ukraine, etc.). It matters not how big the invader is.

[diegosilang]

Imagine the hell the Americans had gone through just to take over Saipan and Iwo Jima.

[kevanhubbard]

Islands are difficult to invade as Hitler found out in WW2 with the island of Great Britain and it is very close to the mainland too but Taiwan is about 5x further out.Japan would likewise be hard to invade.

[americanexpat]

As one US military historian told it, the D-Day invasion required immense planning to pull off. But Taiwan is a lot more difficult. Remember, the Normandy beaches were only 30 miles across the ocean between the UK and France, while Taiwan is 100 miles. Plus, and this is key, by the time that the Allies had implemented the D-Day invasion that had already had other amphibious landings throughout WWII - especially in the Pacific with a huge US Navy. China has no experience with this sort of difficult tactic. The idea that they could easily pull it off is almost certainly pushing the outer reach of their limits. This is no trivial undertaking.

[Skanking-Corpse]

Something to note about the Chinese military is that they haven't fought a major military engagement in over forty years and they lost. China has a lot of fancy technology but it is unproven in real world combat, and virtually no one in the military has any real world combat experience. Looking at what happened to the Russians in Ukraine, which actually have a lot of combat experience, an invasion of Taiwan likely won't go as smoothly and the Chinese military might hope. If the Chinese military struggles badly against Taiwan that would negatively affect the peoples views of their government and could create deep unrest.

[Apollonos]

Another difficulty for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is the weather. The tides around Taiwan are so treacherous that an amphibious invasion is only possible two months out of the year, in April and November. The Taiwanese are well aware of this, and I'm sure they keep an extra watchful eye on the mainland during those months. Also, the 100-mile Strait of Taiwan gives the Taiwanese plenty of warning if China ever decides to invade.

In addition to the physical problems of an invasion, there are also political considerations. The Taiwanese were not asleep when Xi and his CCP thugs brutalized Hong Kong. On the contrary, they were glued to their TV's, watching the whole thing go down. They know that if Xi ever invades Taiwan, they can expect the same treatment. They know that the mainland is a totalitarian dictatorship, and they have no interest in suffering under that kind of government. Taiwan has been a thriving democracy for over 70 years. The Taiwanese elect their own leaders, and they want to keep it that way. Thanks to the semiconductor industry, the Taiwanese are prosperous and happy. Unlike mainland China, there are no "cancer cities" in Taiwan, and I don't think the Taiwanese want any of those in their country.

[garykirscher]

You state at 11:04 that Taiwan has 3000 full time military personnel. It actually has a standing army of 160000 with trained reserves of 1.66 million.

[bufnyfan]

When I was in graduate school in the 1980s I had the opportunity to work with many visiting Chinese scientists. Even back then they spoke of how China would one day reclaim Taiwan and how sensitive this issue was with mainland China. This had been driven home to them from the time they were children. This reminds me of how sensitive an issue the Falkland Islands are to Argentina. They went on to an unsuccessful war to reclaim these islands in 1982 and even today will not give up their claim to them.

[jumpinjehoshaphat]

During WWII, the US considered invading Formosa (Operation Causeway), but decided that it was unrealistic in view of the numbers of troops required.

[catchen]

I'm from Taiwan and in semiconductor industry so I know the importance of this industry very well. PRC's claim of Taiwan as part of its territory went all the way back to 1949 when Chinese Civil War ended and at that time there's no semiconductor industry! So I believe the true reason is that Taiwan blocks China's entry into Western Pacific Ocean. Taiwan's history is interesting and maybe confusing to some, but what's important is that Taiwan is never part of PRC, so whether Taiwan wants to join PRC or stay independent should be determined by Taiwanese people themselves. Basically, China's "historical" claim is just an excuse to expand its territory and break the First Island Chain.

[richknudsen]

I love the irony of "communist billionaires" in China.
So much for the prolitariat.

[USAmerican]

3:18. The "Qing" was Manchurian! Correct Manchu name is Daicing. Qing is Mandarin translation. Empire name was Dulimbai Gurun, Middle Kingdom. The Manchu's conquered not only Han China (Ming Dynasty) but also Tibet, Mongolia, East Turkistan, and a small part of Taiwan. All these areas were colonies of the Manchu Daicing Empire. Manchu's forced Han Chinese to wear the queue hairstyle, to show they were in charge.
So during this period, part of Taiwan was a Manchurian colony, as was China.
Both areas had different forms of government.

[garyz]

Wow, what a thoughtful, intelligent, well-scripted, and narrated mini-documentary on the Sino-Taiwanese issue. Just brilliant. Thanks for this. I think I'll subscribe.

[Jackr]

I visited Taiwan decades ago, and found it to be a beautiful country. The older people (at the time) thought they were the real Chinese govt and therefore Chinese. The young people thought they were Taiwanese and didn't want anything to do with China. The native populations were like native populations anywhere and were a largely oppressed minority. Very interesting place.
Also, lived in Australia for ten years and got to know some Aussie military people. One of them had gone to China on a military tour (this was pre Xi) and she said they had obviously fake equipment they were being shown. She was military so she pointed this out to their guide and got hustled along. She said it was a paper tiger. Granted this was years ago, but given decades of corruption I can't imagine its changed much.

[andyyang]

11:00 Taiwan has 215K active military personnel, and 2.38M in reserve.

[KabukeeJo]

If Taiwan ever forgets what China is really all about, they just need to remember what China did to Hong Kong.

[leocarmopereira]

Nice work. One little piece of correction: Brazil doesn't have that much of a poor soil.