Ukrainian Equipment Losses and Resupply (2024): Allied support, captured equipment & endurance

However, in a war like this, equipment losses take on most of their strategic relevance when they're considered in relative terms. That is, who is going to start feeling the pain from materiel shortages first, and how may it shape the wider war.

So, as promised, today we look at Ukrainian equipment loss estimates, discuss the potential impact of changing equipment quality, and dive a little deeper into a few key equipment categories and the changing nature of the force

Patreon:

Caveats, Comments and Corrections:

One chart shows the Strv 122 appearing twice - this is an error however the data shown is correct in both cases.

I will also note the M113 supply list includes both Benelux and Netherlands lines. These relate to separate efforts for different vehicles in the M113 family. With the Dutch line relating to the YPR-765

All normal caveats and disclaimers apply

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes

Sources & Reading:

This video is primarily data-centric so I will include relevant notes there up front

The primary source for visually confirmed losses and equipment commitments remain the relevant Oryx databases - this is done to ensure that data comes from a consistent source across videos. Sense checking can be done against other VC database efforts, including Warspotting and Lostarmour in the case of losses, and national announcements for equipment pledges.

Relevant news articles featured or other relevant pieces are also included below:

Germany and Slovakia work to extend repair hub beyond 2024

Russia's demilitarisation headline from June 2023

CV-90 supply

Ukrainian pilots training on Gripen - 2023

Denmark and Netherlands announce 14 Leo 2A4s will be delivered within weeks

Spain to deliver HAWK

France to deliver SPGs

Ukrainian MoD on equipment restoration

Ukraine to create new brigades

Ukrainian General on Equipment shortages

Finland announcing another aid package - sans details

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:12 — Assessing Ukraine & Russia
00:06:47 — The Quality Question
00:17:51 — The Question Marks: Domestic & Captured
00:19:38 — Losses
00:26:04 — Inputs
00:30:53 — MBTs
00:36:27 — IFVS & APCS
00:45:04 — Aircraft
00:54:56 — Changing Force Composition
01:01:07 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

As noted in the description, this video is intended as the companion piece to the video on Russian equipment losses and reserves released two weeks ago and they should probably be considered together. I think the broad observation here is that the Ukrainian military has been sustained and is being steadily transitioned to NATO equipment by foreign assistance over time, but still finds itself facing shortages, uncertainty over its pipeline and various other challenges that mean it still remains in a period of relative vulnerability even if it's proven capable of maintaining a pattern of hard defensive fighting through much of this year. How the pipeline develops may help determine the trajectory of Ukrainian combat power over time.

I'll also note that certain system categories (including artillery and air defences) really do merit their own detailed look as part of a more focused study, so you may see a closer look at them in the coming weeks and months.

[laststand]

"Here is a picture of a vehicle whose turret is presumably trying out a new career as an anti satellite weapon" Haha, Love it.

[jimtalbott]

44:40 - When you look at the normal Costs of having a vehicle like the M113 “decommissioned”(scrapped), donation to Ukraine makes OH-so-much-sense. Just a quick servicing, ensure it’s functional, and load it onto a transport to Europe. After learning about the situation for regular transport vehicles in Ukraine, those medical version 113s are especially valuable to the Ukrainians.

I’ve worked for a contractor to the US Government that worked on decommissioning projects. There’s a SUBSTANTIAL cost to it on the part of the government, due to things like environment regs, customs/export rules, etc., donation as an alternative might even be saving us money, on balance.

[jaredpilbeam]

The one we don't like to hear, but need to hear. Thanks for the straight shootin' as always Mr. Australian PowerPoint man.

[Elkarlo]

As a German Ex M113 Driver: We used them for everything which needed to be transported or to be hidden but not fast. It was darn cheap, around 25.000 USD in the 80's or about two midsized Cars. It's literally an Aluminium Box, a truck Diesel Engine, some Steelbars which are the Springs and a Ramp, together with an okeish differential and steering is in the simple Version with simple Breaks. Later variants got a Wheel instead of the tillers for the breaks, i am allowed to drive both types, as they didn't upgraded the ones in the unit but in driving school those had been upgraded... and then replaced with some without as the hydraulic system had problems. But extremely simple and Cheap.
And according to our Feldwebel the best Shopping Vehicle in the World, you can pull up at the market, drive in 4 Shopping card, thanks to the Ramp, with 4 Soldiers (Driver, commander, 2 grunts)

[Earl]

Great timing. Was about to start cleaning the flat and now i am perfectly informed and entertained while doing it.

[MarkfrmCanada]

"Without sufficient mine clearing equipment or ATACMS to suppress enemy attack helicopters" was said so matter of factly that I had to back up and make sure I'd heard that right. God dammit Perun, I love your humour!

[defenstrator]

There do so many talking heads on this subject that I have grown to loathe. Perun is one of the few I can watch with his data driven analysis that is actually sourced. Keep going man.

[casbot]

While PTSD is a issue for any military in a war, Ukrainian mechanics and the logistics departments (having to maintain all the various nations' _"donations")_ might be more stressed than some combat

[Winged_Gunsknecht]

The Polish Rosomaks clearly just have an aura of anger so strong it burns any approaching projectiles, acting as an impromptu hard kill system.

[chrpnll]

The Swedish Gripen's were put on hold when the western allies asked Sweden to wait until Ukraine had implemented the F16's.
This to simplify implementation and logistics.
Kind of a shame imo but there is logic there.

[caliperstorm]

This really makes me appreciate OSINT. We as the public would know almost nothing about the details of this conflict if it weren’t for the hard work of people on Oryx, people who buy satellite images, and communicators like Perun. It’s amazing that we can cut through the fog of war as well as we do.

[ioanbotez]

There's one more category of countries that offered aid - those that sent agricultural vehicles of a highly unusual configuration and uncertain use, except perhaps for VERY long range plowing of fields. Romania and Bulgaria are in this category, I believe.

[EkawarGehuara]

came for the Terra Invicta gameplay, stayed for the geopolitics and economics, don't regret a thing, keep it up Perun.

[kilroy]

I've been hearing "Ukraine is going to be getting F16s as soon as the end of the month" for more than a year. It's starting to sound like "everything in the store is up to 90 percent off."

[karenrobertsdottir]

Beyond the Poland brigade training, there was an idea I saw floated a while back but haven't seen anything done with it since: let people considering signing up choose their MOS. Guarantee them: 1) If you qualify for your MOS, you serve in your MOS for your entire service period. 2) You cannot be transferred to any other MOS. 3) Serving in your MOS makes you immune from conscription. 4) If you do not qualify for your MOS, you're free to leave at any time (potentially even letting overseas Ukrainians of draft age return overseas if they fail to qualify).

I'd think that'd lead to a *huge* surge in recruitment. Tons of people want to help but don't want to serve in trenches. Many have specific skillsets but think those skills would be wasted as a general grunt in a trench. Pilots, drone hobbyists, programmers, engineers, truck drivers, your name it.

One example that really drives this home for me was watching Denys Davydov - commercial pilot and self professed coward who would never serve in the Ukrainian military, as much as he wants to see Ukraine win, out fear of just being sent to a trench and getting killed - in a video where he was covering how Ukrainian pilots in WWII-era planes were shooting down drones with shotguns. He was practically giddy describing it and sounded like he wished so much that he could be doing that. So you know... why *not* create an environment where people with varying skillsets can offer to serve *in just that skillset* ? It should be a *massive* boost in service rates.

[ycplum]

The M113 is a terrible front line armored vehicle. However, it is perfectly capable as a armored supply vehicle, ammo carrier, ambulance, command vehicle (if outfitted with commo gear), armored personnel carrier to staging areas (not into combat), recovery vehicle of light armored vehicles, towing artillery, etc.

[robertsinnott]

Now that iv caught up on all the episodes from the last 3 years, it takes so long for Sunday to come around. Always worth the wait 🎉

[JinKee]

0:00 “Mission Accomplished” banner hanging on the Admiral Kuznetsov

[davidswaens]

Small correction: at 44:22 you have a graph with both "Benelux" and "Netherlands". "Benelux" however stands for "Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg", so you're including the Netherlands twice. Greetings, a concerned Belgian who thinks one Netherlands is already plenty.