Infantry Fighting Vehicles in Ukraine - losses, lessons & will Western IFVs matter?

While tanks and fighters tend to win public attention, the fighting in Ukraine has done a lot to remind us of the critical role played by the infantry. And to survive and thrive on the battlefield, the infantry in Ukraine rely on their armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles to enable to enable movement and provide fire support.

Those vehicles, so critical to both sides have, however, been lost in extreme numbers - with no vehicle on the Russian side having suffered more visually confirmed losses than the BMP-2.

Now, it seems, the floodgates are opening on the supply of Western IFVs to Ukraine. In this video I look at these vehicles, their employment in Ukraine, and suggest that despite being lost in large numbers - that they will remain critical in the fighting to come.

Special thanks to those consulted for this video.

Patreon:

Caveats & Comments:
I mispeak and call RUSI the "uniform services institute" - It is correctly (and has for the better part of two centuries) been the "united services institute."

As always, keep in mind that while visually confirmed loss data is among the best data we have for setting loss baselines, it is limited and should be interpreted with care.

To enable some of the analysis in this video, some data treatment was done - for example, entries for destroyed BMPs where the variant could not be determined were divided, pro-rata

Regarding the narrative - while the BMP-1 had a major impact, I should note that other IFV type vehicles preceded it - with perhaps the most significant being the German HS.30.

In this video, I call the Stryker an American vehicle due to its service. The vehicle has Canadian DNA and is built there

Notes/further reading:
pre-war equipment levels are as per Military Balance 2021 for consistency.

Loss and resupply data as per Oryx as noted:

War for Ukraine - First Conclusions from 2022 and New Challenges 2023

Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022

TASS - on the Bradley

TASS - on BMP-2 Production

On the pledge of Marders and BMPs to Ukraine

Russian MoD claim of destroyed Bradleys is as per their official TG channel - September 4 2022

GAO assessment of Bradley and Abrams in Desert Storm

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:57 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:36 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:03:43 — IFVs: History & Doctrine
00:03:52 — The Combined Arms Problem
00:05:17 — VARIETY OF RESPONSES
00:06:36 — Halftracks & APCs
00:08:05 — The BMP-1
00:10:14 — IFVs & Modern Mechanised Infantry
00:11:06 — Related Vehicles
00:12:08 — PRE WAR FORCES
00:12:13 — The Russian Arsenal
00:14:02 — The "Cutting Edge"
00:15:57 — Fossils
00:17:08 — Shortage Conditions
00:17:51 — The Primary Force
00:19:14 — The Ukrainian Armoury
00:20:07 — The Soviet Inheritance
00:20:28 — New Gen. Vehicles
00:21:28 — Western Systems
00:22:19 — LOSSES: AND WHY THEY AREN'T EVERYTHING
00:23:02 — Assessing Losses
00:23:59 — Overall Trends
00:25:54 — Visually Confirmed Losses
00:27:20 — ORYX IFV & APC Visually Confirmed Losses
00:29:07 — Russian Losses
00:31:24 — Analysing Ukrainian Losses
00:33:15 — Highlighting Outliers
00:36:08 — Three Common Potential Misconceptions
00:36:53 — ORYX Implied Net IFV Loss
00:38:18 — Colonel Reisner
00:39:27 — EMPLOYMENT & EXPERIENCE
00:40:11 — Infantry Support and Early Losses
00:41:50 — Vulnerability
00:43:15 — Relationship with Survivability
00:45:20 — Dispersion & Concentration
00:46:09 — A Critical Tool
00:48:07 — Static Warfare
00:49:03 — Through the Fog of War
00:49:49 — Potential Lessons
00:50:19 — RESUPPLY & REPLACEMENTS
00:50:28 — The Need to Replenish
00:51:40 — Russian Efforts (and Debates)
00:53:28 — Western Resupply
00:55:17 — The Shift To Heavier Materiel
00:55:59 — A Note on Quantities
00:57:19 — MEET THE CANDIDATES
00:57:24 — Marder
00:58:18 — M2/M3 Bradley
00:59:24 — Moving the Needle?
01:01:06 — STRYKER (+MGS)
01:01:44 — THE RUSSIAN RESPONSE
01:02:07 — 1: Gross Escalation
01:02:37 — 2: The System is Terrible
01:03:09 — 3: They Were Destroyed
01:03:51 — WHAT NEXT?
01:03:55 — The Resupply Effort & Losses
01:04:47 — Force Evolution: Russia
01:05:55 — Force Evolution: Ukraine
01:06:39 — Conclusions
01:07:35 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Many thanks again to those who contributed to the preparation of this video.

Just to repeat a point in the corrections and caveats section before I'm blacklisted from a country, I wanted to note that while I call the Stryker an American vehicle (in American service) - I acknowledge its Canadian DNA and manufacture. Also from the caveats that's worth putting here - while the BMP-1 had a major impact on the development of AFVs everywhere, I do want to call out the West German HS 30 for beating it into service with a similar concept. Another editing flub was calling RUSI the "uniform" services rather than "united" services institute for lord know what reason and then missing it in editing.

There would be more caveats and notes (such as noting Czech production of the BMP in addition to USSR figures) but I ran out of text allowance. The biggest caveat is to note, as always, that loss data from an ongoing war is subject to a significant degree of uncertainty.

And apologies to the Germans in the audience - Early in the video I say SdKfz 241, instead of the correct 251. Missed that in editing.

As always, thank you all for your engagement and support!

[francois]

Who remembers the early days when Perun was like "I can't believe people want to watch hour-long slideshows on YouTube, but here we are..."?

[honestlyreed]

"You cannot pay your teachers in armored personnel carriers, and even if you could, I'd recommend against it unless you want the next teacher's strike to be that much more interesting."

[haxney]

The WWII example of "the American M1 came under fire and soldiers fired back with M1s, M1s, and M1s" was absolute gold!

[AG-pmtc]

Can we just take a second to appreciate the M1 bit 😂

[aenorist]

"Exploded vehicles are no longer very useful and should be replaced by unexploded ones."
Pearls of wisdom like these are what we are really here for :D

[propagandalf]

As a German I'm simply amazed that youmanaged to pronounce "Sonderkraftfahrzeug" almost correctly.

[HarryP]

There seems to some "law" on YouTube that videos should be kept to 10-15mins long as that is the attention span of most users. Why is it then that so many people, myself included, seem perfectly happy to sit through hour long PowerPoints by some Aussie? IMHO, it's because they tick every box of being informative, engaging, includes accurate data, and most importantly, humorous. Thanks Perun for your continued delivery of such excellent content. I have yet to watch one of your videos without being educated further on some subject that I thought I was already pretty well informed about.

[peez]

Honestly, thank you Perun.

Today, I've been in surgery for 4 hours and I was awake the whole time. It was a very unpleasant and painful experience.

I usually watch your videos right away, but I saved this one for my surgery date to help keep my mind occupied. Through the 4 hours, I listened to your videos back-to-back and as unpleasant as the surgery was, you got me through it.

So I wholeheartedly wanted to thank you.

[vishrutbansal]

13:20 "As you can imagine, parts are seldom compatible between different M1s"

I lost it xD

[ghoffmann]

"You cannot pay your teachers with armored personnel carriers."
That, sir, sounds like a challenge.

[charliehansen]

Your orange and black powerpoints are always of the highest quality. I look forward to your videos every week. I was a petroleum supply guy in the US Army and logistics is my bread and butter and that is one of the biggest reasons I enjoy the effort you put into these. Battles are won by tactics and bravery, wars are won by logistics and economics.

[jimwu]

1:03:43 "...American equipment is endowed with the magical ability to reconstitute itself after destruction and carry on the fight with a zombie crew."
What a time to be alive.

[andrewreynolds]

“Practice has a way of beating up theory and taking its lunch money.” Perun makes some of the best quotes

[senialgoat]

Usually I don't comment on videos; I feel I need to say that your videos are appreciated. I both thoroughly enjoyed the content and the presentation. I also appreciate that you seem to deliver the content with the concept of biases in mind and take that into account therein. There's a lot of people who would rather provide information with a heavy dose of either emotional or patriotic bias, whether aware or unaware of it. So I figured instead of being a silent observer I would throw my two cents in and let you know that I appreciate your content.

[chrishooge]

The Bradley compliments tanks when used in combined formations. During Desert Storm the optics on the Bradley were better and conducive to identifying targets for the Abrams in a open desert environment. They play a tank destroyer role with their ATGMs at ranges in excess of an MBT's main gun.

The mounted infantry can be deployed to provide security or screen terrain while the Brads and Abrams provide overwatch. Bradleys can also be loaded up with supplies to sustain the infantry in the fight. Think ammo, water, rations, and Javelins. IFVs aren't tanks but they allow the infantry to keep up with the tanks and if a BMP or T-72 pops up they have the means to deal with the threat.

[PhilGreeleyJR]

I really hope that you are involved in teaching in some way. Your ability to transmit complex topics to the layman is a talent beyond compare. Thank you

[brianmacadam]

"the large part ain't modern and the modern part ain't large" very well said !

[dennisynborg]

1:13 "It is not about the vournability of the system, but what it can do for you. "

Cheftain put it very accuratly. "Do not ask what you can do to the tank. Instead ask what the tank can do to you." and "The infantry can be killed by practically everything on the battlefield, yet no one has yet stated that the infantryman is obsolete".

[mudcrab]

M113 is state of the art WW2.

The original FMC tech drawings date from 1950. Basically the entire design came from thinking about WW2 and deciding what would make the perfect APC. Fully tracked. Armoured roof. Ramp access so troops don't have to jump over the sides.

Lot of my life on this vehicle :)