Ukraine's counter-offensives - 'Seven months from Kyiv to Kharkiv'

A few weeks ago the Ukraine war was one of attrition and grinding advances, with Russian attacks in the Donbass an Ukrainian actions in Kherson both running into heavy defensive operations.

Then suddenly the Ukrainians launched their operation in Kharkiv Oblast, and within less than a fortnight, the Ukrainians would reclaim more territory than Russian forces had gained in months of bombardment and attrition-driven advances.

The war in Ukraine began with desperate defensive operations by the Ukrainian armed forces and population. Russian forces ended the first days pushing on the Ukrainian capital as the Ukrainians called for anyone capable of holding a rifle to stand up to defend the capital.

Now, it sees Ukrainian mobile units launching exploitation operations and forcing storied units like 1st Guards Tank Army to give up its positions at Izium rather than risk encirclement.

It's a heck of a story, one for the history books - and while it's still an evolving situation and data is thin, I thought it was worth asking three questions.

What the heck just happened, how did it happen, and what does that mean for the war to come?

Patreon:

Caveats & corrections:
On certainty:
As noted in the video, developing situations like this one are covered in just about the thickest layer fog that one can get. I have done my best using the sources available, but be prepared for some of the details to be contradicted in coming days and months.

On losses: The loss data used in this presentation is incorrectly labelled ' in 7 days.' The figures were updated prior to recording to cover more of the offensive period, but the 7 day marker war not.

On the use of Russian language in Ukraine:
At one point I talk about people in the liberated areas greeting Ukrainian troops in Russian. As this is a contentious point I wanted to make clear that I meant that in a majority of the videos I saw, Russian was used. Overall, the Oblast has a diverse linguistic environment, with the distribution between those who use Ukrainian and Russian as a first language varying between cities, towns etc. When I describe Kharkiv as an Oblast that was meant to have Russian sympathies, I mean that from the point of view of the Russian pre-war narrative, not as an objective appraisal.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Opening Words
00:01:20 -- What Am I Covering?
00:01:52 -- Caveats
00:03:28 -- War By The Numbers
00:04:34 -- Inputs To Warfighting Capability
00:05:15 -- PHASE 1: To Kyiv And Back
00:05:25 -- Ukraine Before The Storm
00:07:00 -- Putin's Greatest Gamble
00:07:15 -- Critical Points: The Morale Factor
00:08:06 -- Critical Points: Rallying, Not Running
00:08:45 -- Critical Points: Resupply
00:09:26 -- Inputs & Trends
00:11:09 -- PHASE 2: The Grind
00:11:30 -- Advance In The Donbass
00:12:35 -- The Mobilisation Race
00:14:17 -- Ukrainian Fire Capabilities
00:15:15 -- Bakhmut & Pisky
00:17:53 -- The Kherson Telegraph
00:20:02 -- Clues On Unit Preparation
00:22:24 -- Southern Grind
00:27:28 -- Counter Offensive In The Donbas
00:30:06 -- Numbers & Scale
00:32:18 -- There Is No Panic
00:35:48 -- Confusion & Liberation
00:37:04 -- Rout Or Repositioning?
00:40:05 -- Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine
00:41:30 -- Exploitation, Insult & Injury
00:43:21 -- The Materiel Losses
00:46:12 -- A Story of 1GTA
00:51:02 -- Black Mark On The Russian Air Force
00:52:51 -- The Moral
00:57:18 -- Cracks In Russia?
01:00:26 -- The Manpower Problem
01:04:18 -- It's Not Over Yet
01:06:02 -- Pressure To Slow Down
01:07:02 -- Full Range Of Outcomes
01:08:12 -- Trends, Inputs & Outputs
01:10:19 -- The Winter Race
01:10:39 -- Russian Challenges
01:12:39 -- What Ukraine Requires?
01:16:25 -- Steel Over Blood
01:17:30 -- Final Perspective
01:18:45 -- The Political & Personal
01:21:46 -- Political Mobilisation
01:23:37 -- Conclusions
01:25:06 -- Channel Update

Further Reading/Listening:

Discussed article on Ukraine's prospects and needs in 2023

Credit to Jomini of the West for the Kharkiv battle maps

"All in!" The Ukrainian Offensives in Cherson and Charkiv - COL. Reisner

Visual loss confirmation compilations:

No panic in Balakleya

Russian TV discussing Ukrainian nationality and culture

[clydedopheide]

As a retired U.S. Army Intelligence Officer, I've recommended your channel to everyone I know who has interest in what's happening in Ukraine. Great analysis and content. Thank you.

[GekelberiLol]

Shit man! I'm Ukrainian from Luhansk, I watched this whole war unraveling beyond me for almost decade now. I've analysed, researched, talked with soldiers and officers. Friends come to me when they do not understand what's going on. And to this day I never witnessed more objective, more accurate, professional and entertaining analysis of aspects of ongoing conflict. I'm watching every video on topic from you since March and you have my eternal and absolute respect. You making me see my life as Ukrainian and war refugee more clear from another bloody continent mate! Thank you and Slava Ukraini.

[learnoreldarion]

"Pre-invasion population of 6 people" This sense of humor combined with the greater strategic overview your videos give is why I sit down every time your analysis of a situation releases. Have another like good sir!

[Steve]

The Russian airforce “couldn’t stop a bushmaster getting to belgorod” is among my favourite quotes of this war so far.

[ChosenOne]

I live in Kharkiv and there were certain things that said that the counteroffensive would be in our area but no one expected that the enemy defenses would be breached so easily, it was unbelievable, it is still a hard war but these weeks have brought some morale to our people

[daniell]

Perun has become on of the most influential YouTube channels I personally pay attention to ever since Russia invaded Ukraine. I know there is a growing corner of YT channels covering the war (overwhelmingly on the Ukrainian side of the war) and Perun is becoming a regularly cited resource because of how balanced and well-researched these videos are. So, I say all that to say, thanks Perun for doing everything you are doing. With war, it is too easy to get lost in the fog of war, especially online, and you do great work clearing away that fog and misinformation.

[emmotta]

As a Military Intelligence Analyst, I can honestly say I am outrageously impressed by the level of professional analysis and assessment in your videos. You are a top notch analyst, and the fact you are aware of your own bias and conscious of easy assumptions lends so much to your credibility. Thank you for what must be some seriously long hours of methodical, logical and insightful work. Keep it up.

[saltech]

There once was a village called Pisky
Which made Mr Putin quite frisky.
Its housing for six
Was reduced to mere bricks
Because leaving it up was too risky.

[yandespar]

Btw, the word for pancakes is "oladky". The grandmas in the video spoke "surzhyk", tho. It's a mix of Ukrainian and Russian spoken on many territories, especially in villages and by elderly.
Those videos made me tear up. Can't wait for a video of my own grandma welcoming the UAF in Kherson oblast

[Kapito]

I'm doing a Master's in international security. I can confidently say that your presentations are more interesting and engaging than the majority here. I don't know what's your background exactly but thank you for your effort!

[mcwarrington]

"It is total-war language married with limited-war methods." Well put.
Another very interesting and useful analysis of this war. As always I look forward to your coming videos, and encourage you to keep producing this sort of fine work. Thank you for sharing, and best wishes from New Zealand!

[Uukrul]

As a retired U.S. Army Engineer Officer, I want to thank you for not ever saying "pincer maneuver", for those that don't know, it is called "double envelopment" in our doctrine.

[keithdavis]

True story: just been listening to this on speaker while waiting to get onto a ferry. One of the ferry staff overheard it and asked, with a strong East European accent, is that news from Ukraine? I said it’s the good news from last week. I asked him where he was from, and yes, he’s Ukrainian. So I got the chance to speak the only Ukrainian words I know to an actual Ukrainian: “Slava Ukraini” - I got a big smile and a firm handshake in reply. Thanks @perun!

[krodor_]

I never knew I had a hole in my life shaped exactly like hour long presentations on defense economics, but here we are. Great work, carry on.

[onylra]

Epic.

I'm reading David Stahel's history of the German retreat from Moscow, and there's a passage about how adept they became at scuttling abandoned equipment - one soldier's favoured method was a grenade behind the radiator ... Antony Beevor describes the huge efforts of US logistics troops to evacuate and destroy supply dumps in his history of the battle of the bulge...

I'm just constantly bewildered by the amount of stuff the Russians have left behind that couldn't have been disposed of with a grenade. They're a rabble, Ukraine is scary.

[WereScrib]

The political mobilization is extremely true--I'm Ukrainian diaspora. My family left in 1906 fearing Tsarist and Polish oppression both. That's over a century ago. But the memory isn't forgotten. I grew up with tales of Ukrainian oppression, my grandmother, despite never living in Ukraine, having been born in the States shortly after arriving, spoke Ukrainian as a first language. Our memories were united with Ukrainians escaping Stalinist oppression, united with Jews who fled the pale of settlement, Ukrainians and Poles who fled the ethnic cleansing of WW2 and put their differences aside in the Americas. We're not close to as numerous as the fighters in Ukraine, but the community here in the Americas, in Argentina, in the USA and in Canada have more people who frankly, are only not ready to fight in Ukraine because our family connections are generally deep enough we know that Ukraine actually doesn't want or need foreign volunteers without prior significant military service, and are aware our presence would be little more than a political weapon used by Russia. It's not for lack of want. But frankly, it's up to us, we of the diaspora to ensure our countries continue supporting Ukraine.

But, if frankly a large amount of America's born diaspora are, frankly, wanting and discussing plans for mobilization, who are having to be told by distant family to not volunteer who are on the front lines, there's a political movement, because we are those not effected by it. Ukrainians may not have suffered as terribly as the Armenians, Jews, Khmer or even Vietnamese based upon our total percent of our ethnic population lost due to genocide but genocide is genocide, the efforts to destroy them and turn them into something they're not. Whether the direct genocide of Tsarist Russia, Poland and Stalinist Russia, or the cultural genocide of the broader USSR, and now, more today. We have a history of it, we've been told by our grandmothers and our great grandmothers of it, we are simply going to care more. There is a racial memory when someone attempts to exterminate who you are or what you are. And it's one deeply felt. The Jewish peoples know it, the Armenians know it, the Kurds know it, and Ukrainians too, know it. I'm not Ukrainian nationally, and I likely never will be, I cannot fight for my nation in this, but I can do everything I can to support a people I am blessed by God to be part of, there is nothing eviler than genocide, by blood or by reeducation.

My grandmother, so old she could barely stand when I was a tiny child danced with joy when she heard Ukraine was its own nation, though her optimism as to an immediate freeing without great tragedy was likely due to her at that point, degrading mind, she knew the Ukrainian people would live on, she said a poem she knew from childhood that she probably was not aware would be the Ukrainian national anthem, that the glory and freedom of Ukraine had not yet perished. And it won't perish from this either. I may live in fear of the suffering Ukraine may endure, I may be afraid this escalates into a war more horrific yet, I may have severe doubts about the survival of the human species for much longer at this point, but in this moment, in this unity I don't care. My grandmother said it, and I'll say it!

Slava Ukraini!

[yandespar]

Even our military higher ups were surprised with how well the counteroffensive worked out. We've seen comments that they had to slow down some formations from going too fast and far so they don't overextend the supply lines. They also said that they expected a bigger number of losses on our side but it turned out in our favour. I'm not saying we don't have losses but those are relatively humble for an offensive

[AkiseAk]

Really satisfying to see Ukraine massively outperform all expectations. Thanks for the analysis as it's been really difficult to discern what actually happened in the past week!

[nicholasconder]

One key to the victory at Kyiv was the destruction of both the special forces troops that Russia infiltrated into Kyiv and Kharkiv before the war started, and the prolonged battle at Hostomel Airport. I rewatched the first couple of weeks coverage on "The Enforcer", and was amazed that there was fighting in Kyiv near the zoo, a place Russia ground forces never reached throughout the entire battle. This indicated that Russia attempted to knock out the government and military HQ in the first few hours of the war. The failure of this operation in particular gave Ukraine the ability to exert command and control over its forces from the very start of the war, and prevented the confusion and disorganization that would have allowed the Russians to enter Kyiv.

[Fruzhin]

"Unless they are mobilised they won't feel the pain"
One day after the partial mobilisation and the memes have been great. This aged like fine wine