Russian Equipment Losses & Reserves (2024) - The Changing Russian Force in Ukraine

Please note one audio correction in the pinned comment regarding BMP-3 losses.

The war in Ukraine has long become one of attrition and endurance, where the status of the competing forces is arguably more important than individual pieces of terrain changing hands.

In this piece, leveraging the work of various people and sources, we look at what we can determine about the status of Russian equipment stocks and active vehicle fleets in 2024, and try to project potential paths forward and establish a baseline for comparing against Ukrainian forces in a coming episode.

Patreon:

Reading and Sourcing:

Given the topic, I think it only right to first acknowledge some of those whose data and work have been used in this work and in the work of others:

Covert Cabal (including his most recent feature on RU tank storage levels)

As well as others that I have mentioned in the past or in this video

Plus, of course I need to flag the value of the work of the VC loss database teams behind Oryx, Warspotting and Lostarmor (which I have referenced in several videos as a check against other data sets

Other relevant sources:

Baseline pre-war equipment figures per Military balance for commonality with other episodes

IISS - Russian T-90m Production

Dr. Jack Watling and Gary Somerville - A Methodology for
Degrading the Arms of the Russian Federation

Dr Jack Watling - In Ukraine, Russia is Beginning to Compound Advantages

Russian media on threat posed by Finland in NATO

Russian warning of 'proportional response' to NATO in Finland

Referenced imagery/reporting on Russian presence on Finnish border

Featured PZH-2000 image and reporting on hedgehog armour

T-80 Image compilation

Reporting on usage of BTR-50

M-46 image included

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:35 — Losses
00:13:49 — Does Quality Matter?
00:17:59 — Storage
00:37:45 — Production
00:42:30 — Production & Reactivations
00:53:46 — Trend And The Evolving Force
00:57:30 — The Path Forward
01:03:07 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Edit: Correction for roughly the 11 minute mark when I flub the audio discussing BMP losses. I state that BMP-3 losses in 2024 were 80% of the total for BMPs. As per the chart, 80% is approx. the BMP-1 + BMP-2 total, with the BMP-3 figure mostly unchanged from the other periods at around 20%. This should be clear from the chart and context but wanted to flag the audio flub as it is an important data point.

Today we have an episode that brings together everyone's favorite things - graphs, stats and the occasional satellite image. To really give more meaning to some of these figures though, we have to have Ukrainian figures to compare them to and project them against. That episode is currently in the works and will likely release either later this month or in August (with the determining factor being how quickly I can bring the data together in a way that I believe is robust enough to publish).

If you're wondering where a lot of the comparison and projection type graphs are - they'll likely be in that follow on episode.

Thanks for the ongoing tolerance of the rough voice as I close out my recovery, and I hope to see you all again next week.

[SRFriso]

Perun, sarcastically: I'm sure you're all ready for an exciting episode of statistics and graphs...
The audience, totally sincere: Aww yeah, that's the good stuff.

[fwiffo]

You know you're living in the future when YouTubers are complaining about the potato quality of some privately commissioned high-resolution, spy satellite imagery of Russian military facilities.

[_random_commenter]

1:52 - "I'm sure you're all ready for an exciting episode packed with statistics and graphs-"

Perun remains confused and bewildered by the enthusiastic interest in his content

[NothingIsKnown]

10:25 ”If you’re unlucky, you get a tank from when the Beatles were the new kids on the block.” … And if you’re lucky, you get one from when The New Kids On The Block were the new kids on the block.

[karlstathakis]

these data-centric deep dives are my absolute favorite type of Perun vid.

I know they’re probably high effort so I’m not trying to push for one every week. But man are these fun.

[feilan]

Solid pronunciation of "Panzerhaubitze 2000" 👍

[KingsandGenerals]

12:50 is when you hear Perun being in clear pain.

[andrewreynolds]

On one hand, we have mainstream media sources that have large budgets and plenty of people that can in theory research the validity of what they publish. Their “news” is very dramatic and eye-catching.

On the other hand, we have one Australian boi who makes PowerPoint presentations with his free time using spreadsheets of numbers. I know which side I prefer to take! Let’s go team PowerPoint

[revoltx]

13:00 "This does not look like a factory standard design" 🤣

[yaceya]

You see, Perun, when you say "ignoring that equipment wears" discussing Ukrainian MLRS, you don't take in account that if Ukraine has -900 MLRS on balance, once a negative MLRS wears out you get +1 MLRS available for Ukrainian forces.

[ticijevish]

Konskriptovich is back!
He transfered from infantry to artillery!
I was getting worried for the old sod...

[greghodges]

Growing up during the Cold War, if you were to tell me that Soviet-era tanks would be pulled out of museums to fight a war in 2024 between Russia and Ukraine (former Soviet states) back in the 1980s I would never believe it LOL

[johnlavette]

Things just got even more uncertain and concerning here in the 'States. I have been caring for my folks and now just my Mom for several years and I am currently moving her out of her home of 25 years. I am grateful to creators like yourself for providing deep and sober examinations of the most consequential news of our world. Honestly, I believe I would have fallen all the way out of my tree over the last few years if I'd been limited to consuming just the corporate media and the wing-ding conspiracy grifters! Thank you!

[MM]

I have been citing to others a point Perun made in a previous Powerpoint related to this: Countries that have a MIC don't actually 'run out' of military gear. They just get low, which means differences for fighting.

[nicholasbernard]

Was just thinking “what time is Perun uploading today” and I’m right on time haha

[euansmith]

I hope that Perun isn't burning through his vast stockpiles of PowerPoint slides at an unsustainable rate. This channel really is a public service.

[matthiasbecker]

44:50 "When it came to 1960s tank design, the T62 was the basic b*tch model, while the T64 had a bit more bling "

Bad time to drink something...

[rknowling]

"which leads to usefully large sample sizes" at which my statistician heart leapt for joy! 😆

[shaisis]

You're dang right I'm excited about statistics and graphs