'All manpower, no metal' - Ukrainian mobilisation, equipment shortages, and training

Previously, I've looked at the way in which Russian force design and political decision-making have left Russian forces with a surplus of heavy equipment, but an inadequate supply of quality infantry.

Today, thanks to a Patron vote, I look at Ukraine's situation. There, the combination of volunteers, popular resistance, and compulsory mobilisation filled the ranks with hundreds of thousands of new troops - but where a shortage of equipment and training has prevented them from realising the true potential of a mobilised, committed nation at war.

Patreon:

Caveats:
There are three overarching caveats that I want to put forward on this video
- The quality of data on this topic is subject is low and findings generally carry wide error margins
- I do not go into great depth about the distinction between the Ukrainian Army, TDF, NGU, and the many other units that are contributing to the fighting. Please keep in mind the impact these distinctions might have as I go through the presentation.
- This video is not intended to be, in any way, a slight on the fighting power and spirit of Ukrainian troops. I think calling out the issue of equipment shortages as well as the limitations of the mobilisation system in fact attests to what the TDF, Army, and other forces have achieved given their resources.

There are also some smaller ones on terminology that might be worth mentioning:
I use the terms like volunteers and persons 'called up' in a soft fashion. Many of those I describe as 'called up' were called up as a result of voluntary enlistment and registration while largely volunteer formations may include infusions of conscripts.

"Mobilisation" is traditionally associated with the mass call ups of conscripts. The Ukrainian experience is much more of a hybrid, combining popular, spontaneous resistance, the mass enlistment of volunteers, and conscription.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Opening Words
00:01:34 -- What Am I Covering?
00:02:29 -- Today's Sponsor: MORNING BREW
00:03:36 -- Mobilisation - The Concept
00:05:20 -- The Soviet System
00:07:16 -- Ukraine's Reforms
00:09:12 -- The Ukrainian Mobilisation Experience
00:11:22 -- The Opening Callup
00:14:54 -- Evolving Mobilisation
00:17:55 -- Women in Service
00:20:12 -- Demography and Mobilisation
00:23:43 -- Where Are We Now?
00:24:58 -- How Much Materiel Does Ukraine Have?
00:26:25 -- Why I Don't Use Russian MOD Figures
00:28:16 -- Why I Don't Use Russian MOD Figures: The Examples
00:30:01 -- The Base-Loss-Replenish Method
00:33:38 -- Observed Equipment Method
00:34:20 -- The New
00:35:13 -- The Old
00:36:06 -- The Ugly
00:37:21 -- Statements/Observations
00:40:30 -- The Combined Picture
00:42:41 -- A Diverse Army
00:43:20 -- So What Needs To Happen?
00:46:28 -- Training & The Training Issue
00:49:43 -- Resolution Methods
00:51:52 -- Earned Veterancy
00:54:11 -- Scale and Sustainability
00:56:06 -- What Does This Mean?
00:58:18 -- Offensive Readiness
01:00:28 -- Future Potential?
01:01:48 -- Conclusions
01:02:54 -- Channel Update

Sources/References:
Ukrainian equipment pre-war:
Military Balance 2021 (as always, for consistency)

Ukrainian loss data:
OSINT visual confirmed:
Declared:

Interview with Ruslan Pukhov:

Ukraine at War - Paving the Road from Survival to Victory - RUSI (I particularly concur with their contention on priority equipment classes)

Ukrainian Resupply - Pledged or Delivered (estimated)

Statements on enrolment of women in Ukraine (in Ukrainian)

Visual confirmation on equipment use:

Original Ukrainian general mobilisation:

NYT piece on some issues with the mobilisation process (I do not share the implied assessment on what realistic standards are during wartime).

Ukrainian mobilisation progress:

[PerunAU]

And thanks to my Patrons for voting for this topic! Next week - I look at China and its military procurement, budget, and mobilisation.

[elgenerico]

From "all bling, no basics" to "all manpower, no metal", Perun, you're doing a hell of a job, mate.

[igorlukyan]

My parents own a restaurant in western Ukraine, and it was my turn to manage it for the week. One morning, I arrived at the restaurant with groceries and noticed that there were people along the side of the road. Me and the bartender girls decided to walk out as well and noticed a convoy with a single Ukrainian flag. Turns out a soldier from our local town was being delivered to his final resting place. Every. Single. Person including children from every store, auto shop, cafe, and gas station walked out and took a knee while the convoy drove by. Trucks and other vehicles stopped onto the roadside and came out and did the same gesture. The amount of bravery and respect to our warriors is astounding. Russia isn’t winning this.

Edit: thanks for all the kind words

[yurijmikhassiak]

I would add that mobilisation is also about economics. Everyone I know, all businesses donate all the time, many companies donate 100% of profits, coworkers donate half of their salary, organize cars, drones, body armor from all around the Europe. That helped a lot. My coworker bought all the armor for his father, another coworker went to medical services and gathered money for medical stuff. Another coworker organized production of military bags, another organized shopping for optics and communication devices for her friends, my friend asked to donate for a used car for his brothers military group, another friend was gathering for medical stuff and helmets. 5 other coworkers created dozens of molotov coctails, worked on masking nets, coworker's mother from Zaporizzia asked for donation for material to make more masking nets. And this is just a small part of things that people were doing. Every week you see new campaigns for drones, cars and other stuff. This is huge. Some people are donating everything they gathered for new apartments, selling valuables, etc. That helped a lot. Ministry of defence couldn't provide even vests and helmets in the first weeks.

[ronti]

Perun this really is your calling in life. You would blitz higher command college anywhere with this content. From an expat Aussie who was once upon a time posted to CASG living in Europe....

[edwardkennedy]

For many people with combat experience (like yours truly) the war began with a call at eleven o'clock at night with a request to urgently arrive at places that were previously marked as a rallying point in case of a full-scale war. I'm not completely sure who warned us, but whoever it was, we owe them a lot, because it essentially saved the air defense around Kyiv and allowed most of the equipment to be brought into the fields. Of course, I can talk for a long time about all the twists and turns of the following days, but I think that now is not the time to reveal all the cards. I can only say that our confusion and mistakes influenced the course of events much less than the same state of affairs among the Russians, who were taken by surprise by the announcement of the offensive. It is also worth noting that when a few years ago at the military games such a scenario was considered and a defense plan was prepared, the then head of the RNBO Danilyuk rejected all precautions and stated that we had nothing to fear from the side of Belarus, because just then our president met with Lukashenka and they assured each other of eternal friendship. As of now, soldiers are practically not recruited, with the exception of people with combat experience and some specialists. At this stage, it is simply not possible to provide all the necessary equipment, even despite Western supplies and the work of volunteers. We hope that the hitch will be resolved when Lend-Lease is operating at full capacity. And as always, my thanks to the author for a fantastic job. Even in our country, many people do not have an idea about the real state of affairs in front of them, which is a pity, although in fairness to people, the final result is important, not the details.

[TheEvilMrJeb]

“There are no quick victories against millions of people determined to resist.” Damn dude, that needs to be in a movie or something.

[thelvadam]

We are living in wild times,
If somebody told me a year ago I will watch weekly 1h+ PowerPoint Videos made by an Aussie on YouTube over a Economics of a war in Europe involving Russia vs the West, I would call him crazy.

We are truly living in the most crazy time-line...

Edit: holy this kinda blew up, I never got this many likes before on any comment, thx guys! ❤

[brianm]

"Military competency isnt like a video game experience points system. You dont get experience points for sitting in your trench, firing RPG's at the Russians, and if you do that for long enough you learn how to plan a combined arms offensive" .. That cracked me up! Does Perun get enough praise for his sense of humor?

[TheVillageIdiotUk]

I’d second support for a “Perun” analysis of Chinas defence modernisation, development and deployment, particularly with respect to more advanced technologies. Thank you for this week’s excellent and fascinating presentation.

[rajchandra]

Amateurs talk tactics, experts talk logistics. But there’s Perun, with macroeconomic analysis. Masterclass.

[РыгорБородулин-це]

Ukrainian here. 14 minutes in and stunned on the incredible accuracy, this is literally what i've heard/seen happening.

[husker]

A couple of days ago I told my GF that I can't wait for sunday for a new Perun video. She asked me what was that about, I told her it's an hour long powerpoint presentation about Ukraine war. She was like "What?" I was like "Yep"

[cenccenc]

I will never forget the interview with a music teacher in kiev at the start of the invasion, as he left a volunteer muster station with two AKs, and said he had never fired a gun before but would figure it out. He was holding the guns by their straps like they were a pair of dirty socks and he was not even sure how to pick them up. When a society is that motivated, you probably got a "special welcome" for your "special operation" coming.

[KirkFickert]

Talking with a couple of former colleagues in the Kyiv area during March they explained it to me this way: You'd have a Army Sgt., maybe SOF, maybe an officer gathering whomever they could find in the morning. It would usually end up being a mix of a couple regular Army guys, national guard, local police, TDF, and then Yuri and his soccer hooligan friends and they'd go out and hit the Russians with whatever they had then run away. That afternoon a couple of regular army guys would form up what they could this time it would be nation guard, police, TDF, and Ivan and his mates from the pub and they'd go out and do it again. There was no central command nor strategy, it was just a bunch of guys and gals doing whatever it was they could.

[tinyplaidninjas]

I am fully prepared to regurgitate this presentation in conversations and sound like a tactical genius. Thanks Perun!

[MPdude]

I am glad you made an issue discussing this. I recently saw a news article by Forbes indicating that Ukraine is having difficulty building new tank brigades because a large portion of trained tankers were lost earlier in the war and Ukraine still needs to time to train new tankers, despite the fact that they captured 230+ Russian tanks and received 300+ from it’s allies which should be able to replenish a good chunk of Ukrainian tank losses. It is good to see more details given to this issue.

Edit: I am reminded that we do need to be cautious and forgot that Ukrainians are not putting every Russian tank back into service. Still, they can help with parts availability.

[kmi]

I just subscribed and felt really bad i didnt before, because:
- You are accurate
- You are trying to be as objective as anyone can be
- The complexity of the problem * your time explaining it / my time spent = next t to nothing
Things I would love to see mutch more in polular journalism

[TowarzyszMichal]

In Slavic mythology, Perun is the highest god of the pantheon and the god of sky, thunder, lightning, storms, rain, law, war, fertility . And now he has a YouTube Chanel .His followers direct their prayers in the comments below the video

[graeme]

I think the `rag tag` resistance shown in the early stages demonstrated to western leaders that Ukraine was serious about defending itself. This gave the green light for intervention