Resupplying Ukraine: Arms, Aid & Escalation - What, Who, & What might be next?

Last week I talked about the enduring strengths of the Russian armed forces and their ability to launch offensives and apply pressure in Ukraine. Faced with that pressure, Ukraine's ability to carry on the fight will be driven not just by its own determination, but by the flow of weapons and assistance from its allies abroad.

Aid to Ukraine has evolved dramatically since February 2022, and there are few topics that have attracted more constant press coverage away from the battlefield itself. So today I try and set out how aid has evolved, who the major contributors are, and the impact aid has had - and may have in 2023.

Patreon:

Caveats & Corrections:
In this episode I refer to the White House announcing periodic age packages for Ukraine - I meant to refer to the DoD

I also refer to percentages of Russian artillery in storage being towed/122mm - this is a reference to 'reserve' Russian artillery systems per MB2021 as stated on the slide.

I also wish to emphasise again that I deliberately included extreme examples of Western escalation options to illustrate a point, not as advocacy.

Sources & Further Reading:

German military support for Ukraine

CSIS - US Security Assistance to Ukraine

Ukraine supplemental FY2023

Kiel Institute for World Economy figures on Ukraine support:

Oryx: Answering the call - heavy weapons to Ukraine

EU Training Mission Targets

Ukraine FOREX reserves

US plans combined arms training

Poland repairing Ukraine equipment

Estonia handing over all its 155mm howitzers

Reznikov: Ukraine needs 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 howitzers for specific operation

TASS on Escalation Risk

CSIS on Ukraine Aid:

Olaf Scholz steers clear of commitment to supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine

U.S. funds not misused in Ukraine, U.S. Treasury says amid corruption crackdown

UK Tanks to Ukraine

M113s to Iraq

Paper system counts for elements like Russian and US reserve artillery are per Military Balance 2021

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:43 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:21 — From Korea to Afghanistan
00:04:47 — AID PRE-2022
00:05:00 — The Ukrainian Military of 2014
00:08:27 — Made in Ukraine (with some help)
00:09:41 — THE AID ESCALATION
00:10:05 — Phase 1: Stop the Tanks
00:11:08 — Phase 2: Light & Heavy
00:12:10 — Phase 3: Keeping the Lights On
00:12:45 — Phase 4: Enabling Manoeuvre
00:14:31 — Phase 5: Reach
00:15:18 — HOW MUCH AID HAS GONE?
00:20:25 — What is a Thing Worth?
00:21:54 — Personal View - Focus on Type & Qty.
00:22:55 — NATIONAL AID PROGRAMS
00:23:07 — The VANGUARDS
00:23:12 — Leading the Charge
00:23:35 — Leading on Heavy Weapons
00:25:02 — Accepting Risk
00:26:42 — Pushing the Boundaries
00:27:58 — THE CAUTIOUS GIANT: US AID
00:32:11 — The Source of Deterrence
00:33:13 — LET'S TALK ABOUT GERMANY
00:36:04 — German Military Aid
00:37:08 — Messaging & Authorisation
00:39:58 — IMPACT & SCALE
00:40:06 — Finances
00:41:06 — Humanitarian & Refugee Costs
00:42:02 — Military Aid by the Numbers
00:46:36 — OTHER AID TYPES
00:50:40 — CAN IT BE ENOUGH?
00:57:07 — The Numbers are the Numbers
01:00:28 — The Trend So Far
01:01:29 — WHAT IS NEEDED?
01:01:44 — The Ukrainian Requests
01:02:49 — Solution 1: New maneuver
01:04:18 — Solution 2: Fight Like Ukrainians
01:08:35 — THE WEST IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT
01:10:25 — CONCLUSIONS
01:11:40 — CHANNEL UPDATE

[PerunAU]

This one took a while to get through YT's checks but here it is, hopefully release will be a few hours earlier than this next week. Thanks for your patience and support.

[peterb]

"letting Russia think they can win is a escalation in itself". That is the most pertinent point of the whole video.
Edit:. I do apologise. I seem to have triggered a large number of Russian propagandists desperately trying to convince us that Ukraine is finished.
He he he.

[garthmckeil]

It's not that your audience is completely "niche".... it's that you make completely "niche" subjects so damn interesting and accessible to the general audience.

[jimknapp]

"For the United States, arming a friendly country that is fighting against the Russians is basically a national tradition, it's on the little bingo check-list that every administration needs to tick off." As a US citizen, I think this comment is hilarious and 100% accurate. Love your videos Perun! Please, keep the good work.

[jonathanpersson]

Most Countries look at the cost of helping Ukraine and decide they can only give a limited number of artillery guns Estonia looks at the cost of letting Russia win this war and decides to give Ukraine all their artillery guns

[herbieoliver]

When Perun says it’s about to get boring you know he’s getting onto the good stuff

[raf]

‘For the six of you still listening…’ You’d think Perun would have learned by now that his audience have been slowly morphed into defense finance nerds. 😊

[SideKickStudios]

Week in, week out, you just crush it. I want to also say, as an Estonian, I'm super proud about our governments' decision to pack up all of our 155mm's and send them to Ukraine. Yes, Russia is unpredictable and a threat, but we will take the risk, because those guns would most likely otherwise just collect dust in the Depo. But that's not why we bought them. If need be, we'll have NATO and our neighbours to help us out and, god help Russia, if they want to test the NATO resolve, but ultimately, the reward far outweighs the risk. Estonia has gone Deadpool level "maximum effort" on this, as far as aid goes, whether military or humanitarian. Russia needs to be stopped in Ukraine or the Entire Europe will be under threat.

[seanazpeitia]

"Because a sober assessment of the balance of powers suggests that Russia would get it's shit kicked in by the NATO alliance as soon as someone smacked the Article 5 button" 🤣 Perun, your wry humor in your amazing videos is one of the highlights of my weekend!

[dzzope]

It's insane to me that this isn't your full time job.

As always, exceptional detail and level headed analysis with logical outcomes.
Hope you keep these going for a long time to come.. And that you can branch out into other fields once Ukraine (hopefully) secures its borders..

[gregburch]

As a US trial lawyer with 35 years of experience, I have to tell you that this video is a masterpiece of communication. The last ten minutes were truly a brilliant drawing of compelling conclusions from well-marshaled and well-supported facts. Bravo!

[AKKK]

As an Estonian that would have to be on the front lines, I hope to god our contributions will help put a stop to the r*ssian hordes. And I still thank the day our politicians decided to join NATO back in 2004, we would have been Georgia'd several times over if we hadn't. Doesn't mean we stop preparing for the threat, but there's the implication.

[randybarber]

50+ year old, self taught student of WWII and post war military activities. This channel has been a breath of fresh air to me. A well balanced (with sources cited!!!) look at the most pivotal conflict (my opinion) since Vietnam. Since I discovered this Channel a few months ago, I look forward to new ‘drops’ like a kid looks forward to Christmas morning! Thank you for your ongoing commitment to the topic!

[catc]

“With [$380 million], you might even be able to buy a house in Auckland or Sydney.” Oh man, as someone living in a high cost real estate area in the US, I felt that. 😭

Also glad to know that Pavel and his mates are alive and kicking. I know he’s fictional, but I still wish him and his crew happy Javelin-ing in the bushes.

[WilliamKrug]

"When Rob does it to get a new ute, it's insurance fraud. But when a government does Love it. Keep up the outstanding work. I live for Sunday mornings anymore.

[jellekastelein]

Speaking as a layman, as far as I can tell these are easily the most meticulously researched, most informative and well argued videos on the large scale conflict that I've come across, thanks!

[willem]

The Netherlands sends their regards, MH17 will not be forgotten

[rinflame]

I have no way of explaining to my colleagues that the highlight of my weekend was listening to Perun talk about 'accounting and definitions' over a glass of wine.

[andrewkelley]

it's nearly impossible to understate how critical Poland has been, but you're the only person I follow who can describe it simply.

[kellyturner]

Perun deserves all the credit he is getting for these presentations.

These will be a vital historical record for generations to come.