Could Russia Become a Failed State?

With Russia's invasion of Ukraine going poorly, some foreign policy experts have begun speculating about the potential collapse of the Russian state. But is this just baseless sensationalism? Or is there a chance Russia could become a failed state?

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[windsorSJ]

One factor that hasn't been mentioned here is population growth. Russia's population is declining. Sending it's most fertile youth to die in a senseless war whilst also alienating it's most talented people to leave Russia will not help the population grow or advance. This will have a big impact in the future.

[AkeN]

Let’s be honest. Russia is really good at collapsing onto itself. It has lots of experience with that.

[ryhol]

In the words of my history professor: “sure, so everything in Russia sucked, lots of people died, leadership vacuum, hunger, violence, and abject poverty and despair. Then things got worse. This is a repeated cycle in Russia “

[andrewm]

Isn't Kissinger the gold standard of being wrong about foreign affairs?

[stikkychaos]

Born too late to see the collapse of the USSR on TV.
Born just in time to see it on Youtube/TikTok.

[deepfreezevideo]

Eighty-one percent of Russians who voluntarily answered the survey.
Did we forget that giving the wrong response nets a Russian fifteen years in the slammer?

[Pikaling]

As a Romanian and since we don't like Russia due to what they done to Bessarabia (Moldova) we tend to align with the Ukrainian School of thought as the collapse of Russia is the only way to safeguard our interests especially concerning reunification of Bessarabia with Romania.

[ilyaqwerqaz]

It's funny that the idea of avoiding Russia's colapse whatever it takes in order to avoid chaos comes from the contries distant from Russia, while contries with rich "history of relationships" and in direct proximity (Ukraine, all Baltic states, Poland) would rather see it dissolved

[jonathanrice]

It seems unthinkable, but from their history it’s entirely possible.

[tariver]

5:10 That's a very common myth. The question on that referendum was:

"Do you consider it necessary to preserve the USSR as a renewed federation of equal sovereign republics, which will be fully ensured of human rights and freedoms of any nationality?"

Key word - renewed. There were talks about a new union treaty between the republics (except the Baltic ones, Moldova Armenia and Georgia) in Novo-Ogaryovo, thus it's name - Novo-Ogarevo process. It all collapsed after the August Coup.

Base point - nobody wanted the old USSR anymore, everybody wanted change.

[rhea]

Russ has more than 200+ ethnicities living under a common flag. But people in power are predominantly Slavs from European part of Russ. Predominantly, the ethnic minorities are mobilized and sent to Ukr. The minorities like Chechens have their own culture which is currently under suppression. If Russ becomes a failed state, then it will disintegrate into many independent states.

[pange]

The fact that (according to TLDR) 7% of the Atlantic Council considers the US the most likely country to become a failed state in the next 10 years makes me question the judgment of that group

[kimwit]

I only have one real concern about a Russian collapse: its stockpile of nuclear weapons and other nuclear fascilities. Having the Russian Federation fall apart in its various memberstates would not be a bad thing otherwise, preferably with little or no violence (but that might well be wishful thinking).

[fernbedek]

The biggest question is what China would do if Russia started crumbling. There’s lots of resources on their doorstep that they’d surely want to control.

[lilcrowlet]

7:49 appreciate the little thing in the upper right corner for the incoming sponsorship, that's nice.

[nigelbowley]

I’m surprised that throughout this video you never once mention the demographic crisis Russia is facing. Russia’s population dropped by over a million people last year and it is rapidly ageing.

[patrickchandler]

Great video as always I just noticed a couple things that might be misleading- when you say that 70% of soviet citizens voted to retain the USSR in each individual SSR in 91 you're forgetting that regions like the Baltic states, Georgia and others did not participate as they had already declared independence and no longer saw themselves as part of the USSR and also the vote was not to retain USSR necessarily but for a new Union of Soviet Soverign Republics (I.e. it did not necessarily have to be a hard-line communist state). Other than that it's a great video and I appreciate not every detail can make it in. Your coverage of the Ukraine war is much appreciated, keep up the good work!

[paksta]

So these experts felt the USA was 5th most likely country to fail soon? Just saying, this might still be hyped up a bit.

[qwerty-vgyf]

I don't know how for you, but as someone who lives here, my Russia has already collapsed.


Hey, someone who lives there here to tell you some of my experiences of talking to people and trying to open their eyes. There is a huge part y'all are missing. There is no real support for Putin, nor his polices (don't even try to trust the polls). Apparently, it is super-easy to make average russian belive in something, but it doesn't mean that he is going to be infested with that idea. People's reaction, who are consuming information from the notoriously famous TV box to the another round of kremlin's bullshit will be more like: "meh, I guess I'm ok with that, just leave me alone" then real support.

Like, I talked to and met many people, and there is an entire terminology for people, who support this sh*t and belive it is right, but have no real will to risk their ass at the frontline, a "couch patriot". Those people are the majority of the real supporters of the war, they won't go to war or fight for shit they belive in. If we were to start a talk about Russia's collapse or the scenario of "civil war" (the impossible one, read till the end), there is no real threat coming from the supporters of the regime. The main power is going to be opposition, we are living under more then 20 years of Putin's rule, and belive me, after you start to go deeper in the rabbit hole of his shady things, you are going to be enraged by everything you will discover. When I hear a story of another brave, kind and a honest person jailed because of opposing the regime, it only makes me want to elevate my fight to another level, from spray-painting oppositional symbols, putting up leaflets and working with the population to grabbing a molotov and throwing it into the conscription office or anything else government and law enforcement related.

So yeah, back to talking about the possibility of such events. Sorry for being so optimistic, but there is literally only one person you need to get rid off to make Russia peaceful, free and democratic. Putin himself. Before you ask, no, there is no one to replace him who would be worse. The whole regime revolves around Putin, there is no other person to continue the life of it [the regime]. After getting rid of the bastard, things absolutely will get better, starting from the point where the new leader (it might still be a closely related to Putin person) would blame the previous one for everything, new leader will need to legitimatimise in power, and that is the only way to do it. They won't continue policies of Putin, forget it, there is no such way. Of course the person after Putin won't be from opposition and surely not the end of Russia's transformation. The changes will come slowly, because the society would need to democratise and learn on the past mistakes, the new leader from earlier won't be needed anymore, but again, when that process of democratisation will start, the only faction people would see as the right one will be opposition.

My thoughts from my point of view.

[jamescameron]

The issue for Russia is that because global supply chains have adjusted, why would they switch back?