Russia's Grand Strategy and Ukraine - Is Putin's war already a strategic failure?

After a year of hard fighting there are a rush of observers trying to make sense of the current balance of power in Ukraine. The focus in often on (often small) movements in the frontlines, casualties, or the performance of particular platforms and systems.

Those things matter, but wars are not generally fought to take individual trenches or solely to inflict casualties. They are fought for strategic objectives.

In this episode I dig into Russia's history of Empire, its modern strategic objectives, and try to assess whether or not the war in Ukraine represents a success or failure by Russia's own chosen metrics (as far as they can be determined). My suggestion is that in repeating a number of the mistakes previously made by leaders of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, it can be argued that Putin has already condemned the Russian federation to a strategic reverse.

What remains to be seen, is whether Ukraine can win a victory from Russia's defeat, or if it will be left to lose as well.

Patreon:

Corrections/Caveats:
This content represents an attempt to divine Russian Strategic intent in Ukraine on the basis of public statements, official media and published Western research - but it is impossible to definitively prove what Putin's goals were in invading Ukraine. Many of the presented opinions have a relatively low confidence level.

At one point I refer to this invasion as an event which has done more to galvanize Ukrainian nationalism than any of the past 100 years - that was unjustified hyperbole - the statement should instead be "of the post Soviet era" or words to that effect for reasons that I hope are obvious.

Sources & Reading:

Russian State Media highlighting the role of the Primakov Doctrine:

Russian State Media on the annexation of Kherson and other regions:

Carnegie Endowment on the Doctrine:

William C. Wohlforth - The Perception of Power: Russia in the Pre-1914 Balance

UN Statistics on Donbas civilian casualties:

DNR figures on losses as a result of military activity (civilian and military)

References to visually confirmed losses are references to Oryx Data

Pew Research on opinions of Russia among selected European political party voters:

Pew Research on opinions on Russia by selected national populations

New Czech president on NATO expansion:

EGF Poling on opinions on the US as leading global power:

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Russian Grand Strategy
00:01:56 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT
00:03:03 — A NATURAL SUPERPOWER
00:04:04 — A Strong Hand
00:06:10 — The Same Old Errors
00:06:46 — LOSING THE EMPIRE
00:07:26 — A Power On The Rise
00:10:41 — BROKEN SICKLE
00:11:48 — History Rhymes
00:13:57 — What Held It Together?
00:15:09 — THE LOST 90s
00:15:16 — Russia's Potential
00:15:50 — Oligarchisation & Decay
00:17:04 — RUSSIAN GRAND STRAT & EURASIANISM
00:18:16 — From Dugin To Primakov
00:20:39 — The Primakov Doctrine
00:25:41 — THE ROAD TO CRIMEA
00:26:18 — It Was A Different Time
00:28:33 — The Cost Of Crimea
00:29:56 — THE LAST CHANCE
00:30:08 — The State Of Play 2022
00:32:10 — Throwing The Dice
00:32:29 — UKRAINE & STRATEGIC DISASTER
00:36:25 — Defining The Goals
00:37:36 — RUSSIAN VICTORY AS DEFEAT
00:39:05 — Halting NATO Expansion & Weakening The Alliance
00:41:04 — A Statement Of Intent
00:45:11 — How's That Influence In The Post Soviet Space
00:45:50 — "protecting The Donbas"
00:48:21 — Demilitarising Ukraine & Repressing "nationalism"
00:50:49 — A "neutral" Ukraine?
00:51:53 — Value Of The Annexed Regions
00:53:11 — Russia's Economic Future
00:54:50 — Russia's Military Potential
00:58:02 — THE RISK OF CATASTROPHE
00:58:25 — All Of That Assumed Russia Won
01:00:06 — Destabilisation & Exhaustion
01:00:29 — Russia Diminished
01:01:11 — THE FINAL ROLL OF THE DICE?
01:01:16 — Russia Has Always Bounced Back?
01:03:30 — THE WAR CONTINUES?
01:04:39 — Russia Losing Does Not Mean Ukraine Has Won
01:06:02 — The Fight For The Future Isn't Settled
01:06:52 — CONCLUSIONS
01:07:59 — CHANNEL UPDATE

[xaxas]

"In Slavic history moments of hope must immediately be followed by crushing dissapointment and despair" so true unfortunately

[hereigoagain]

"... withdrawing Wagner troops out of Ukraine would achieve the de-Nazification objective because it would reduce the number of fascist on the territory of Ukraine ..." Pure Gold!

[benjimlem]

"/.../Because if Polish troops found themselves on Red Square right now I have a feeling that'd be going straight for the Kremlin"
You're god damn right.

[toasty]

"But in Slavic history moments of hope must be immediately followed by crushing disappointment and despair."
Damn, I wish that didn't ring quite as true as it does.

[AsiniusNaso]

Insane to think we've gone from "could Russia rival the US again" to "could Russia collapse like the Soviet Union again" in less than year.

[PeterA]

"Do you want to build an oil refinery in occupied territory when every third Ukrainian knows how to drop a grenade from a drone?". I hope history preserves these gems.

[c.j.]

"If you ever need someone to get off the sideline and hit someone with a chair - it's Uncle Sam." This line is solid gold.

[xYarbx]

As someone who was born as 3rd generation after Soviet-Finnish winterwar into Finnish family. Ukrainians only having 1 generation of trauma is seriously short selling it. It's still till this day that you can see the scars that the war left on the people, nature & countries relations. I never got to meet 1 of my grandparents because he was lost to a grenade. My dad did not have father as he was born after the death of his father, he was raised by the older siblings while their mom worked. Depriving my aunt and uncle of normal childhood, while at the same time struggling with the lose of their father at the age of 8 & 10 and from the stories I've heard told we could be considered lucky on the scale of effected. These and many much more horrific things in light of places like Bucha leave scars to victim and their families that they will take to their graves and cultural ones that will last even centuries.

[J_Stronsky]

"...the idea of demilitarising your opponent by face-tanking their ammunition reserves with your infantry and armoured vehicles, isn't exactly a 4D chess move." - Perun, 2023

Pure poetry mate.

[CZEFrank]

Since you brought up the new Czech president, I think it'd also be fitting to point out his predecessor Miloš Zeman. Zeman has been in office for 10 years, has always held a staunchly pro-Russian position and was arguably the face of pro-Russian politics. Well since the invasion he's done a complete 180 on those views, called for harsh sanctions on Russia, called Putin a madman and awarded Zelenskyy the Order of the White Lion, the highest order in this country. Just a good example of how much the invasion has eroded Russia's support.

[francois]

"NATO expansion is a threat to Russian influence, not its survival."

This has to be the quote of the century.

[sirko]

Absolute like from Ukraine!
This is extremely important for our morale here. We are keep fighting, but it's important to know that the Free World is with us and we will win together!
Thank you ❤️

[grognard]

I had to chuckle at the "Congratulations America, you are the least worst option." Thank you for that. I have many complaints about American foreign policy but do agree with your sentiment.

[keizervanenerc]

"Argueably simply withdrawing Wagner groups out of Ukraine would achieve the goal of de-nazification because it would reduce the number of fascists on the territory of Ukraine."

True, and yet hilarious at the same time! One of my favorite quotes of your videos so far!

[owensvil]

This is by far the best analysis of the war/situation I have found

[austrb]

This is a super cool analysis!! The only correction is that Zelenskiy's government was not hated that much before the war as you mentioned. Surely many people disliked him, but in general the government was "normal" or "fine" for most Ukrainians and even had significant chances for winning next parliamentary and presidential elections (especially considering that there were no real rivals).

[RebekaTarn]

As an Estonian and Eastern European, I must say that it is bittersweet hearing someone from a country so far away retelling the (hi)story that we have learned both in schools and at home. It still amazes me how westerners have in many ways fallen victim to Russian propaganda. Only now they are beginning to see what Russia has been like for centuries: invading neighbors, importing Russians, promoting Russian language and culture by force, genocide and oppression. A few generations later and those oppressed people have been brainwashed into thinking they are also Russians and the amoeba that is the russian state keeps on growing. At the same time, their governance is horrible and they keep failing and breaking down. But then they come back claiming that your home country is somehow their “historical land”.

There is a reason why Poland and the Baltics are supporting Ukraine so feverishly. It is because we know exactly what Russia is and how it operates. We have known for centuries.

[pondacres]

This was a great assessment. I'm from Soviet era Ukraine, with family still there, native Russian speaker. Honestly before this war I had nothing against Russia, quite the opposite. I was one of those who thought the initial predictions of an invasion were western media hysterics. My grandfathers/granduncles fought in the red army in the great war, it was a point of pride for my family. So celebrating banderites was obviously not something we did. And, when Putin took Crimea along with the Donbas rebellion he was feeding, I blamed Ukrainian nationalists for instigating this by overthrowing Yanukovych.

BUT, when the invasion did start, and reports came back about them invading Russian orks and what they were doing, along with the zombified Russian civilians ("I'm not very political")...I must admit all of this has really rocked my world, my entire identity, definitely my allegiance. I'm hardly alone in this. My family in Ukraine is now cheering on the azov regiment, I mean wow! This vid touched on this briefly, but I think it's a big point how Putin's plan to bring the Russian world to Russian-Speaking Ukrainians had a polar opposite effect. He may be wrecking Ukraine, but he's also building a whole new Ukraine, a unified one.

[dunnowy]

It's crazy to think that Russia achieved so many of its geopolitical objectives BEFORE the war. They were widely considered a great power and treated as such. They drove wedges in Europe. They expanded their influence. Kept Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova out of NATO. Competed with the US, allied with China, but maintained its own independent foreign policy.

And then. The war.

[fratercontenduntocculta]

In memory of this first year of senseless death, my thoughts and prayers go out to the brave and resourceful people of Ukraine. You will win!