Escalation Strategy & Aid in Ukraine - How the West manages Russian nuclear threats and 'red lines'

While not taking away from the immense sacrifices and efforts of the the involved forces, allied aid to Ukraine has been one of the decisive factors in the war so far.

Ukraine has constantly sought new capabilities, while Russian media and politicians have often tried to stoke fears and warn against taking any additional steps.

Patreon:

Caveats & comments:
As well as all the usual caveats, the point to stress here is that escalation management is only one aspect of the decision making that likely informs Western aid levels. Politics, economics, and domestic fears and sentiments are other (non-exhaustive) examples

Relevant news/reading:

Russia warns over weapons:

Russia placing nuclear force into heightened readiness

Russia warns over F-16s:

Russia warns over tanks:

Putin issues further warnings - 2023

Medvedev warning of nuclear war:

Russian warning that Leopards will be destroyed:

Russia - Leopards won't matter

Russia - Ukraine needs years to train on Leopards

Russian reporting on the weak points of Leopard and Abrams

Russian expert on comparative value of Leopard vs T-62

Reporting on Scott Ritter's tanks are suicidal for Ukraine article

Russia placing nukes in Belarus:

Reporting on the 'drowned leopard' claim...

Sanctions as something that will make Russia stronger

The featured report on the Patriot claims

Tracker of German military aid to Ukraine:

Nadia Schadlow Incrementalism is throttling US support for Ukraine

Reporting on Dutch support for Ukrainian F-16 program

Scholtz saying Russia will not win in Ukraine

Reminder on potential act of energy related escalation in 2022

Japan pledging $5.5B in financial aid

RAND- Concepts and models of escalation (1980s)

Michael Fitzsimmons - The false allure of escalation dominance

Aaron Miles - Escalation dominance is America's oldest new Nuclear strategy

Norway planning multi-year support package

France reminds that NATO is a nuclear alliance

Germany announcing extended military support

Lauren Sukin - rattling the nuclear saber

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Escalation Management & Strategy In Ukraine
00:01:45 – What Am I Talking About
00:02:47 – Historical Escalation Management & Proxies
00:10:03 – Escalation Theory
00:21:49 – Red Lines & Escalation
00:39:34 – Russian Escalation Response
00:52:01 – Understanding Russia's Response
01:00:05 – Next Steps
01:08:31 – Conclusions
01:09:55 – Channel Update

[PerunAU]

If I were to offer an editorial addition to this one it would be this. I've tried to explain incrementalism as an escalation management approach in the video because I think it most accurately models the attitude towards aid we've seen so far. That doesn't mean I think it was the best available strategy. I think as far back as early 2022 I suggested a very different approach focused on clearly telegraphing future intentions and outcomes. Basically committing heavily, early, and building a longer term pipeline.

But I'm not the one in the big-chair who has to make the big calls, so I've focused on trying to explain what we've seen and why rather than what one random Aussie might have done differently. I hope that matches what you're looking for out of this channel and these presentations.

[hestan]

Up to this day, experts still struggle to understand how a man can put together and release such quality content once every week

Edit :damn i didnt expect so much likes. Thank you

[kitkitos]

Russia relying solely on gaslighting actually makes sense given that their gas exports have been all but halted

[specialagent]

"America would probably tell you no if you asked for money but would just give you a car" is the best way to sum up how most Americans view charitable action

[Mic_Glow]

The problem with threatening with nukes is that after hearing it every second week for a year, people just stop giving a damn.
Someone truly powerful doesn't have to say "I'm powerful" all the time.

[foxtrotunit]

~"Appeasement based on threats of MAD is *itself
an escalation risk"* very well said! This often gets overlooked by those calling for UA to stop defending itself.

[MsZeeZed]

There is often a theory within Authoritarian regimes that Democracies don’t have the “patience” for real war. Actual history says that once a Democracy commits to a war it will dig in and fight for about 20 years (a generation of electors) - see Vietnam, N.Ireland, Afghanistan. Authoritarian regimes in turn often struggle to last a decade if they go for total war due to having a shit economy.

[tdb]

I love how Emutopia and Kiwiland have now become returning characters. There are very few countries you could make nuclear war/military invasion jokes about, without those countries being offended. We're lucky to have such a close relationship with New Zealand, even though they're traitors for eating Marmite instead of Vegemite.

[hape]

Putin: "We are at war with NATO and have already lost over 200, 000 heroes and most of our weapon systems."
Xi Jinping: "Okay, and what are NATO's losses?"
Putin: "They haven't shown up yet."

[NiceMrP]

As someone holding a bachelors degree in political science with a focus on nuclear weapons and escalation, i just have one thing to say: This video is brilliant and could easiliy be used as teaching material.

[owenbolding]

I believe the British leading the way on systems/capabilities is basically in part due to Russia's undertaking chemical weapon assassinations on UK soil. i.e. The UK started several steps up the ladder already.

[stepheng]

"how one achieves a strategic victory over a rival nuclear power without triggering a global 'game over screen.'" Dear sir, your effortless deadpan has me cracking on my ride home from night shift. Please never change that absolutely brutal and dark sarcasm.

[Gorbyrev]

Repect where its due. Private Konskriptavitch has survived some pretty tough situations over these last months. He must live a charmed life!

[keemanaan]

"... If they get it wrong, having to explain to their children why they are living in a post apocalyptic future resembling a Fallout game..." Love it. Great content AGAIN!!!

[williamyoung]

Only an Aussie would put "Talking Shit" in an intellectual power point presentation. 😂 Thank you for keeping things in perspective. There are bigger issues going on in the world that are worse than curse words.

[edwardkennedy]

There are quite a lot of those in Ukraine who sincerely do not understand why the collective West does not provide everything necessary for victory and it is rather difficult to explain to them all the nuances. In addition to the fact that new technology needs time to be mastered (when I first climbed into the Stryker after my Soviet brm, at first I thought that I was sitting in a spaceship), and the reserves are not unlimited, no one wants to push Russia towards a nuclear escalation. Putin declared from the very first day that there would be terrible consequences for anyone who intervenes, and it was a big surprise for me personally that, despite these threats, the response turned out to be so cold-blooded and at the same time lightning fast. Of course, someone can say that this help did not come as quickly as we would like, but, knowing the European bureaucracy, I can say that this is really a miracle. Nevertheless, in addition to all the difficulties, red lines and possible nuclear escalation, there is one more point that very few people discuss, but still keep in mind. If Russia loses big, it could fall apart, and nobody wants that, not even us Ukrainians. Imagine what would happen if, instead of one idiot with a big button in Moscow, you had to deal with two dozen idiots (or complete savages) with the same buttons and nuclear potential to demolish half the planet. This is exactly what no one needs, not now not in the future. That is why the slow grinding of the Russian army is much more preferable for the West than a decisive victory. Of course, for us this means even more death and destruction, but we are ready to pay this price for the common good and the right to a future in the free world.

[Oscar_SanJuan]

It's Sunday morning, which means I'm rushing to YouTube to hear Perun talk about Private Conscriptovich 🙌

[owd]

I don't know how you manage to hit the perfect mix of hilarious delivery, super high information density, and easy-to-understand explanations, but you have a rare talent here.

[farmernathan]

Perun, I bloody hate that I now spend my week waiting for a slide show to come out.

Love the content, insightful, well researched, and worth the wait.

[SilvanaDil]

I think *the* most important thing Ukraine has received is access to American satellite intel, signals intel, etc.