Why The US Needs Mexico: Replacing Chinese Manufacturing || Peter Zeihan

As the US pulls manufacturing from China, we'll look to Mexico City to fill that void. This region not only holds over half of Mexico's population but also represents the largest untapped workforce globally.

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#mexico #manufacturing #china

[eodyn]

I'd much rather stabilize Latin America than do anything to help the CCP.

[petersouthernboy]

I am in CNC Manufacturing for medical implants in the USA for a European medical device company. They are closing German production and moving it to the US.

[jhwheuer]

Having worked for manufacturing companies all over the world, I expect brutal automation.
I recently worked on a furniture plant that got a total reset. Went from employing about 500 workers to about 12 folks with laptops and a team of mechanics on standby. That’s the future, not more folks.
Oh, output went up by 400% as the plant runs 24x6, with one day preventative maintenance, while quality is through the roof. All that for a lower unit cost.

[skruface]

Curious what you think about the "Fortress North America" concept - that Canada has the resources, America has the expertise and tech, and Mexico has the workforce to create a super-nation of sorts, with respect to both manufacturing and defense.

[OrdinaryDude]

More industry means more jobs. More jobs means more income. More income means stability and prosperity. It's good for everyone, so it needs to be done.

[stephenlaw]

Thank you for your daily chats. Love listening to your perspectives.

[lidphls]

Dude must have incredible shoulder and arm stamina, not to mention steadiness, to hold a camera that size for as long as he does on some of these videos. Valuable info, as always.

[gerrardlinjh]

Peter zeihan is just saying all of these on the go. A great mind with clarity of thought

[TixNBurrsRanch]

PZ has the solution to many problems in his final words:
"If not, we need to figure out what stuff we don't actually want."
Simplify.

[guncoservicesllc]

I’ve shipped bulk but bagged AG goods in 50KG bags into Mexico mainly to the general DF area. Almost every shipment was pilfered at some point in Mexico before arriving at the clients spur. Ferromex is worse to work with than domestic rail carriers.

[pete]

The main issue with a 5 year time frame is that rail is expensive to construct and takes time to actually build out. New track, even on existing rights of way, can cost upwards of $3 million per mile. Maintenance of existing track often costs on the order of $1 million per year. Those costs may be less in Mexico, but probably not by much. Five years would be aggressive even if all the track expansions, rights of way, and surveying work were already approved. There could be some improvements to the signalling systems on the Mexico side that could improve capacities through operational efficiencies, but those are also expensive and take time to implement.

The other issue is that Mexico's railroads are controlled by the federal government and operate on a contracted concession basis. So, companies such as CPKC, the current concessionaire through their KCSM subsidiary are not going to pour significant amounts of capital into expanding rail capacity without strong commitments from the Mexican federal government that it will continue to keep CPKC as the concessionaire if not outright allow for privatization of the assets by transferring ownership to CPKC. The same goes for the UP/TM to FXE connections along the border. And increasing rail infrastructure in the US is fraught with uncertainties resulting from the incessant demands for environmental reviews and perpetual lawsuits; environmentalists might say they want trucks taken off of highways to reduce emissions, but they also will fight tooth and nail against building the rail infrastructure necessary to accommodate the transfer of freight to rail. And that mindset isn't going to change in the next 5 months in order to get that infrastructure in place in 5 years, much less have that mindset change in the next 5 years. Until environmentalism implodes the economy, we won't have the political will to generate the necessary legal and policy adjustments to allow this to happen.

[zeroyum]

Totally agree, we need to work our hardest to bring back all critical manufacturing back to North America... Especially bleeding edge wafer manufacturing...

[mrboxtypants]

Awesome. Would love to spend more time in Mexico City. It’s a fantastic place

[genedhallinc]

I heard China was buying huge areas of property in Mexico and building manufacturing plants, in order to bypass trade restrictions, shipping products straight into U.S. from Mexico. Who works at those plants hasn't been spoken of. Guessing Mexicans will do the bulk of work with Chinese overseeing the businesses.

[BrendanAlexander]

I am from Wisconsin. Been living in mexico city going on 10 years. Love it here. Am guessing Peter was filming at a park in Polanco.

[jfrankcarr]

My company is already doing this and it really helped during the supply chain crisis in the past few years. The question is how to make it more secure.

[dougkratz]

On my list of things I DO want: continuing daily Peter takes. Thanks

[KG-yccl]

The EDC in the Rio Grande Valley was always pitching everyone on a multimodal rail system running from the port at Lazaro Cardenas up through Aguas Calientes to Monterey then into McAllen. Never heard anyone talking about Mexico City

[vikalmarentes]

Mexico has been investing in building rail roads to integrate decades neglected southern Mexico. The new Maya train running through a few states is expected to help move cargo products up to central Mexico . There is also the itsmo rail project connecting Pacific and Atlantic oceans as an alternative to the Panama canal

[tomkodi]

Don't worry Canada's CP Rail has it covered.
The Canadian Pacific railroad and Kansas City Southern railroad have combined to become the first single-line railway connecting Canada, the United States and Mexico. The new railway is called the Canadian Pacific Kansas City. The merger was finalized in April