Peter Zeihan - What Will Happen If China Invades Taiwan?

Peter Zeihan explains what could happen if China tried to invade Taiwan. Is the Chinese invasion of Taiwan likely? Does Peter Zeihan think that China would succeed if they tried to take Taiwan? Why do China want to invade Taiwan?

#peterzeihan #china #taiwan

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[sgtcrab]

The first casualty would be Walmart . Every store would close .

[trygveplaustrum]

*Seriously, Peter Zeihan and Jordan B. Peterson are perfect compliments.*
One is an extreme economic hyperrealist, taking all emotions out of the equation.
The other turns emotions into a science, and explores the deepest reaches of humanity.
Both take the extreme and complex and give them a frightening amount of sense.

[michaelmancini]

I’m a retired Recon Marine, so I looked at the topography of Taiwan, and the water shelf approaching their beeches, not to mention the mining that Taiwan would install around their coast, and then of course you have the USN to contend with, and more than likely, the Japanese Navy, GOOD LUCK CHINA

[mitchjames]

There is also the fact that there are only 14 small beaches suitable for an amphibious assault that are backed by mountains with dense forest or dense urban areas. Plus there is the Taiwan Strait which is only in a short window of time making naval and amphibious assault difficult.

[KingLutherQ]

A US - China sea battle would be one sided. The US has 11 aircraft carriers and 9 amphibious assault ships that can carry F-35C stealth jets. While China only has ONE really crappy aircraft carrier that is already falling apart.

[SpaceTurd]

if China invades Taiwan, i'm not convinced the world will do anything. what consequences has China faced for lying about covid for before letting it loose on the rest of us?

[billchepil]

I like the intuition he is showing here. Makes a lot of sense. I had never thought of it from this perspective.

[timhart]

I have to agree with you on this one, Peter.

[all_angles]

I enjoy this guy’s takes… still though I can’t help but wonder what X-factors, if any, China has been developing in whatever underground infrastructure they may have

[kimarhironso]

Taiwan also has 1.66 million reservist, which is ridiculous given its size. They might only have four weeks of training, but just being able to point a gun in the direction of the enemy would mean that they would have a huge force of arms packed in a small area, and sometimes just being determined to root out an invader with little arms training on your own is enough.

[burnerburner]

Looks like everyone here forgot about the one China policy recognized by the US and a majority of nations.

[leftydanvball]

He has some valid points, but went off the deep end quickly.

[prashantghimire]

1:43, did he say they'd build a few nukes ?

[johncapps]

Well, our friends that live in China have been told to prepare for food shortages. They have to keep they’re messages cryptic but they are concerned as to why they have been told to do this.

[superchargedpetrolhead]

I have heard him in other videos and he seems great but this time his predictions sound more like a Michael bay movie.

[newshot]

What is his qualification to say with certainty what the best strategy and only strategy for this and for that is ...?

[thrillhouse]

It's crazy that estimations are showing that the us would lose 2 aircraft carriers in this conflict. Not many people alive today have seen an aircraft carrier go down

[georgealaska]

Lets not forget that a lot of really rich people own factories in Taiwan.

[mcb]

Taiwan has it least 600-700 anti-ship missiles and builds hundreds each year. Japan is upgrading 1, 000 of it’s land-based anti ship missiles to have a range of 1, 000km. The US has 2-4 submarines in the area each with 150 precision tomahawk missiles and hundreds of land-based and air-to sea missiles.

And these are just some of the anti – invasion capability elements.

Ukraine with far more backward and unorganised missile squadrons sank Russia’s capital ship with a single missile. There is no way China’s navy or amphibious ships survive the journey.

China trying to disguise a drill as an invasion doesn’t work. For an actual invasion they would need to assemble what the allies had to assemble for D-day on a much larger scale. With satellite technology there is no way it can go unnoticed. US intelligence predicts they will have 60 days + of being confident of an invasion and 30+ of being 100% certain of an invasion.

If they do a surprise bombard before their troops are assembled then they will be under fire before their troops even get onto the transport vehicles. There’s no way it works out well.


But this is just the military challenges.

In a war Taiwan would wipe out China's major dams and ruin the prosperity of 600m chinese people, meanwhile after the war there would be no recovery with the average age of china being 40+ and no energy imports for the economy or iron ore imports to rebuild. Sure, China would survive – but there would be no great economic rejuvenation.

[mariapilarme]

I lived in Taipei in 1985. People are wonderful there. If China would have the intention to get Taiwan they would have done years ago. Chinese are very practical people, what we can get if we have Taiwan there? It’s always intention. I don’t know who is this new guru but he is wrong.