Ten Ways the Ukraine-Russia War Could End

With the Ukraine-Russia War now going on for months, it is time to think about how it might end. This video covers ten of the most important possibilities, ranging from a complete Russian victory, to a Ukrainian upset, to World War III.

0:00 Introduction
0:18 Afghanistan Syndrome
1:41 Putin Removed from Office
2:42 Victory Day "Victory"
4:20 Putin Gambles for Resurrection
6:08 Negotiated Settlement
7:13 Zelensky Eliminated
8:13 Complete Military Defeat of Ukraine
9:27 Ukraine Destroyed
10:35 It Doesn't
12:10 World War III

By A.Savin:

By Bundesarchiv:

By RIA Novosti archive:

Images licensed under CC BY 2.0:

By OSCE:

[Gametheory]

Correction: at 9:44 it should be *eastward* (as the map illustrates), not westward.

[SoApost]

11. Alien invasion
12. Asteroid
13. Rapture
14. Supervolcano
15. Simian Flu
16. Supernova
17. Black hole gamma ray burst
18. Donald Trump
19. Canadian Truckers
20. Skynet

[jan-seli]

"NATO has drifted westward over time"
I think you either mean Ukraine has drifted westward or NATO has drifted eastward

[uweengelmann]

What you haven't covered are economic scenarios.They may lead to one of the other endings, but can be of importance of their own. A fullscale economic war between Europe and Russia has many consequences. Europe depends much on the Russian ressources.

[Rocketsong]

The invasion started in 2014, it just kicked off into a higher tempo in 2022. This is going to end up as a multi year attritional war much like WWI. Russia has well dug in and fortified positions from their initial invasion in 2014, so while Ukraine will likely be able to push back most Russian gains since February, they will have a very difficult time dislodging them from Crimea, and the parts of Donbass they already occupied.

[AndrD]

If Zelensky is eliminated nothing changes. Ukraine doesn't fight for him.

[jamescole]

6/18/22..much enjoy yur videos; no fluff, just right to main points with numerical priorities. Great research, maps, animated graphics..just a 1st rate presentation! Thx & carry on Sir!👍👍👍😊

[deblxdee]

The "overwhelm" security and brute forces in Russia won't happen, as it has a lot of police, a national guard - rosgvardia, OMON, SOBR, FSB and many more layers of security that are still under direct control of the government. Potentially it isn't possible for other reasons too, as such rather big support of this regime, or at least some kind of defense to it, it always goes like "Better this, that US" or it comes down to whataboutism with "US attacked Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya and got away with it, no one sanctioned them", or something else, then there's just not enough of potential revolt, those who are against this regime are already left the country or thinking about doing so in the future, rather than fighting for a dead cause. It'll likely be a palace coup, than revolt around the whole country

[FredrikHaugen]

The major problem with these ways is that it's completely gives Ukraine no action or motivation. Putin might have started the war, but he's not the one that ends the war. The war only ends when both sides agrees on it. As we seen so far the Ukrainian side, strengthen by it's ability to throw the Russian from northern Ukraine, has made it abundantly clear that they see no other possibility(as for now) that the war only ends when the pre-2014 borders are restored. Far from agreeing on any concessions of giving up any Ukrainian territory. The terror that Russians has unleashed on the civilian populace and with the bombing of civilian infrastructure only strengthen their resolve. If you follow the information and discussions on the Ukraine side they have shifted their mindset from fighting to survive, to fighting to win.

P.S. Ukraine has never been in a civil war. They have had parts of their country annexed or infiltrated by Russian forces. If those forces would leave the Donbass regions those will fall like a house of cards. The only reason that they are still fighting is that Russia is pumping in massive amount of money into the hands of people, best described as mafia.

[ADobbin]

Ukraine has apparently stated that the only peace treaty they will accept is complete return of all illegally taken territory. This is now a total victory or nothing situation for both.

[yakubiv]

The analysis is good, thank you. However, remember, you just **cannot** call the annexation of Crimea and dropping russian military forces onto eastern parts of Ukraine 'a civil war'! It is not a civil war, it is a hybrid war between russia and Ukraine, taking place since 2014

[srjable]

Thank you. Also, almost no adds on your vids. This is amazing

[rogerclarke]

You missing one big detail about WWIII, if there is a Nuclear exchange between US and Russia, Its not just the targeted cities that will be destroyed, the resulting nuclear winter will mean the whole word will suffer severe famine. Billions would die.

[BenRusk]

what disgusts me the most about a WW3 situation is it's always a case of "you hit me, so now i *have* to hit you back *even harder* "

in other words, destruction of everything on this planet as we know it would be done through *voluntary actions* of just a small handful of people.

[petersmythe]

"A history of near misses does not guarantee future success."
Yup. Also worth mentioning there is a good amount of survivorship bias that could be going on. If worldlines where nuclear conflicts happen stifle population growth in favor of dispersed populations and bunkerized construction, and kill off a few billion people in the initial exchange plus any fallout or nuclear winter effects, we're significantly less likely to look back and see that history because there would be fewer people in those worldlines actually doing so. By default, history their has a bias in favor of unreasonable, statistically unsound optimistic population growth. The future need not have such a bias.

[JohnS-kizf]

I believe Putin made his descision to go through with the invasion after seeing Afghanistan. The Kiev attack in the north was Putin seeing how Afghanistan let the Taliban walk right into Kabul and he expected the same for Ukraine.

[TravisJones]

2021 levels of intensity: not intense at all. In 2019-2021, the Donbass saw only 25-27 civilian fatalities per year, with over half due to landmines, according to the UN.

[HsingSun]

During the Vietnam war, there were many Anti Vietnam war groups in US; Therefore, US had to withdraw the military. Russia and Ukraine war is totally different, there are more than 40 countries supported Ukraine to fight off invaders, Russian military.

[wlbichay]

Hello William,

I truly enjoyed your detailed analysis of 10 ways to end the war between Russia and Ukraine! Good job! 🥳

[tenzingngodub]

If you are playing Chess you need to kill the king not the soldiers to make the game over.