The 12 Causes of the Russo-Ukrainian War

What caused the Russo-Ukrainian War? This video tackles that question in four phases. First, we examine the substantive reasons Russia invaded Ukraine. Second, I explain why those reasons are collectively a half-cause for war. Third, we switch gears to discuss bargaining problems. Finally, we will investigate what each of these explanations implies for how the war will end.

0:00 Outline
1:19 Separatist Regions
3:54 Crimean Land Bridge
5:02 Russian Irredentism
6:42 East-West Rivalry
7:49 Energy
9:36 Water
10:34 Nazis
12:20 Substantive Explanations Are Half-Causes
12:54 Visualizing War's Expected Outcome (LINES ON MAPS)
14:21 Costs Incentivize Bargaining
15:09 Bargaining over Oil
17:00 Bargaining over Autonomy
17:34 Why War Is Puzzling
18:52 Preventive War and Shifting Power
21:00 Preemptive War and First Strikes
24:20 Uncertainty and Miscalculation
26:24 Rational, Unitary Actor Explanations for War
27:05 Irrationality
29:39 Personal Benefits
31:28 Substantive Cases and War Termination
32:57 Leadership Change
36:36 Stopping Power Shifts
39:52 Information Convergence
42:29 Endgame

From OSCE Special Monitoring Mission:

From European People's Party:

From Bundesarchiv:

From Ввласенко:

From RIAN archive:

From Government of Ukraine:

[nabbar]

You missed one of the biggest sources of friction: Ukraine has no reason to trust Russia. The way you use lines to demonstrate how it ought to be possible to reach negotiated settlements assumes that the parties trust that a negotiated settlement will be honored. Without trust, giving up land in exchange for nothing more than promises of peace just gives the other side a better starting position when it makes more demands in a few years, or starts a war if the weaker nation refuses to submit to the future demands. Ukraine has every reason to fear that if Russia is allowed to get away with it, Russia will keep taking bites out of Ukraine every few years until what is left of Ukraine is weak enough that Russia can conquer the entire nation. That makes it imperative to prevent Russia from winning or at least to make whatever Russia gains costly enough to strongly discourage future aggression.

[JamesJansson]

Your point at 14:09 "No one else has to die... we can go back to normalcy in Europe". False. It would usher in a new era of accepting and rewarding military aggression. I couldn't imagine a more destabilising action.

Other European and Eurasian nations would try to settle old and new border disputes with wars and an incentivise nationalist movements like the one that built in Russia.

War would become the new normal in Europe and Eurasia.

[lakewobegonesbest]

“Both candidates declared themselves Victor.” Very nice.

[krisverrico]

This war is a father who fights with his son who is growing and is fighting with his father
Basically a fight between a father and a son

[davidnguyen]

Give them an inch, and they’ll take a mile
Sometimes compromise is impossible under geopolitical concerns

[pathologicaldoubt]

Ukraine can’t afford a settlement as described in the end of this video, as once Russia secured a defensible land bridge to Crimea, it weakens Ukraine economically as it’s mostly cut off from the sea and leaves it especially vulnerable to another invasion down the line. Not to mention it sends the message to other countries that sovereignty is negotiable. Nothing short of complete withdrawal should be accepted for these reasons, especially if we wish to not see more nuclear proliferation as its the only surefire way to avoid being invaded.

[SadhuTravels]

Loss of sea corridor for Ukraine will be devastating. Zelensky understands this and is willing to take the painful route if Russia won't stop.

[Scotty]

Please do a new one with all the changes that have happened!

[MP-tuns]

This video illustrates the exact way of thinking that led the western "analysts" to conclude that Ukraine would fall in a matter of days or weeks after the full scale invasion. It misses a key part or the equation that has rendered all the pre-war "analysis" absolutely useless. That is the will of the general population of Ukraine to fight to defend their country. In my opinion, it demonstrates a lack of understanding of the complex mentality of both nations and all the underlying historical grudges and misstrust between them.

[gregparrott]

With regards to the number of troops needed to occupy a nation after defeating it, we can refer back to general Shinseke and his disagreement with Rumsfeld. After defeating Iraq, Rumsfeld asserted that most of the troops could return home. In contrast, Shinseki said it would require several times MORE troops to maintain a peace between rival religions and factions. Rumsfeld openly mocked Shinseki. But, Shinseki was proven right, and Rumsfeld (along with Wolfowitz and Cheney) were proven wrong.

[dtf-productions]

@williamspaniel what’s the song playing in the video?

[jamiedriscoll]

20:40 interesting fact, those vertical smoke trails are from rockets that got fired before detonation so scientists could study the pressure wave during nuclear testing.

[andrewtate]

Poorly thought video, you missed so many points in between. I usually like your videos a lot but you messed up this one royally. First of all you do not even seem to be aware of the fact that Russia was involved in the 2014 Donbas war. Second, even the majority of the Russian speaking population in the Donbas region do not want to have anything to do with Russia.

All in all, you screwed the pooch on this one and got boggled in your own theoretical textbook stories.

[williamwong]

So after more than a year of war and still fighting now, will there be any amendments on the causes of the war that you see now or no change on your interpretations of the causes of war as before ?

[josephahner]

The Three to One rule is not an advantage in manpower, but an advantage in combat power. In 2003 the United States led coalition were outnumbered by the Iraqi Army more than three to one and the Iraqis were defending.

[herptek]

Defenders only ever have something to lose and the invaders set the stakes. There will not be an equilibrium favorable to the defender if offence as a response is out of the table or otherwise impossible.

[jacksu-]

Regular soldiers did take part in the Donbass conflict, that is of course denied by the kreml but enough evidence has surfaced that makes it perfectly clear

[SirajWahaj]

How insightful this piece is, one year ago now, I watched many clips on YouTube but none give a succinct explanation like this one, even though I'm watching it now 5th October, 2023

[billjue]

12 reasons. Didn't know Putin had eleven doubles.

[Ushakov_Mykyta]

Actually, in 2015 there were about 30 000 regular russian troops fighting Ukraine in the Donbas. They just didn't call themselves that, pretending to be just volunteers acting on their own with no support from Putin. I guess that's why they had artillery from the russian military stockpiles, and that's why the battle for Donetsk airport involved russian spetsnaz. Curious how so many people forget all that happened.