China's rush into light-based semiconductors threatens NVidia, CHIPS Act fab plants with total loss

Conventional semiconductor chips funnel electrons through gates, switching transistors on and off. Photon-based chips will use light, instead of electricity. Photon chips will be orders of magnitude faster, with dramatically reduced power requirements.

Yao Yang is a dean and key policy official at Peking University, one of China's most prestigious institutions. He is one of several top industry insiders who predict that China will be the first to commercialize light-based semiconductors, leaping forward of the United States, Japan, and Europe, and in just a few years. If he is right, tens of billions of dollars in semiconductor fabrication plants will be at risk.

Also at risk are Western chipmakers who build design and build convention, electron-powered chipsets. NVidia is now the world's most valuable chip design company, now with a market capitalization of around $3 trillion. But NVidia is struggling to compete against Huawei's conventional chip in China, meanwhile other Chinese researchers have announced a light-based chip 3,000 times faster than NVidia's best chip.

Resources and links:

Interview with Yao Yang, Chinese language (For English, open in Google Chrome or with a Firefox extension)

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NVidia stock chart from Finviz

[frankm]

Chinese were happy to be part of American system in term of science, tech development/applications, manufacturing, trading, finance, supply chain etc. until 2018 and especially since 2022, that the US forced China to change their lane to unfollowing the UsA.
Now China is developing everything and doing everything to decouple from the US.

[sqpilot]

While US bans advance chip sale to China, China is also banning the sale of advance chip sale to US. When SMIC and Huawei are mass producing these photonic chips, it will be banned from selling to the west and is used exclusively for China. TSMC will also be banned from China.

[sinocare]

Kevin, you know too much about China and its potential. Ignorance is a blessing for Americans.

[userngo.bmo]

Kevin you are worrying too much! Biden just told us China is collapsing!

[RB-yjng]

The U.S. is working against itself to save oil, coal, and the car industry. Our new chip factories will probably be obsolete around the same time China is releasing new photon chips. Legacy auto factories will be obsolete too, even with their new EV factories. These factories are slated to come online in two to three years and by that time China cars will be better and even more cheaper than they are today. Do these companies and politicians think people can afford high-priced vehicles forever especially with automation rapidly displacing workers? If we do not stop tariffs and understand the world will move on without us, we will hurt every future generation for years to come and may never recover all because we lack the vision from our own greed.

[masson]

Actually, I really feel that Westerners don't understand us Chinese people, I have to say it. When faced with threats and persecution, we become more united and diligent. At the same time, Chinese people are willing to sacrifice themselves for the country.

I agree that China should not follow the American path. After all, the American path is all about profits for capitalists, and ordinary people are always exploited. In the past, I admired democracy in America, but as I've gotten older and seen more truths, it's also because I no longer believe in the democratic system in America.

China is unwilling to engage in war and doesn't want to be at odds with the United States. But when we are pushed to the point where we have no choice, please forgive us for standing united, for our own happiness and for the glory of our country. This is the mindset of many Chinese people. I believe.

[tetrabromobisphenol]

Intel had a major opportunity to develop optoelectronic chips in the mid oughts. Indeed they (in partnership with UCSB) were the first to create a laser in silicon, which was a remarkable feat. But management being management decided to take the lazy, easy path and they shut the whole thing down because it might have cannibalized their other offerings (it's not even clear that it would have). This country has become a collection of anti-innovative large companies that rely on rent-seeking and government bailouts to stay in business. I hope China kicks the crap out of our flabby, lazy semiconductor industry, they brought it on themselves.

[hungo]

Western tech giants have outrageously underestimated China's might to pioneer semiconductor chips on the global stage. In fact, the sheer multitude of skilled Chinese STEM engineers really helps facilitate their robust economic growth in the foreseeable future.

[Aceks]

I was reading about light in chips back in college in the mid 1990s. The book was published in the 1970s, it was largely theoretical. No one really solved the technical issues of getting one to work. The chips we have use electrons. Using electrons require more energy, and it is slower than using light.

Intel developed silicon photonic optical transceivers which are used in data centers, they are much faster than using the electron based transceivers. This is why they have fiber optic cables, fiber optics also use light.

If Chinese scientists can solve all the technical issues of developing a photonic chip then it would be ground breaking.

[Gerry-tw]

It is foreseeable that the future world leader will be a country with the best and most scientists, professors, engineers and production line operators, plus a stable government that pursues a policy of peaceful development while maintains a military force that is sufficient to deter any foreign military interference. China is clearly the most competitive candidate.

[pwalker]

Wait, you think the American leadership doesn't know this? American government spending is 99% about enriching connected friends, and the best way to do that is worthless spending. Bridges, to nowhere, a dysfunctional military, Gazan piers that fall apart. People in the right places makes SO much money.

[booneulidan]

THE PROGRESS OF HUMANITY COMES FR COMPETITION AND THIS IS WHAT CHINA IS EXACTLY DOING IN CONTRAST TO OTHER COUNTRIES

[uptoapoint]

State interference in the U.S. economy is disastrous. It combines the worst elements of bureaucracy, academic theorists, and corporate lobbying.

[bsdpowa]

Man I'm so glad I stumbled upon this channel. These news are gold! We don't see that anywhere else.

[steaminglobster]

You always touch the very deep down of every topics. Chinese define weak or strong by the ability to solve problems, USA defines weak or strong by how much money the company worth, even worse, by how much the company worth on the stock market. It is very very different value system. Which one works? as daily, normal working class normal people, the answer is obvious.

[horridohobbies]

For someone who isn't an expert on semiconductor technology, you are still providing great insight. I am in awe.

[Kristenshwan]

Money is not meant to control people rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place.

[hoabach]

All I can say is Bravo China! Keep going!

[lohpl]

This is just phenomena and fantastically amazing. Well done to China

[chkemek-uvqe]

China was the past and is now the future.