WARGAME: China's plan to take Taiwan and how the US would stop Xi | Superpowers

China has laid out intentions to take Taiwan by the end of the decade but how could the PLA carry this out, how real is the threat, and how are the US and allies planning to counter Xi Jinping's ambitions?

On Superpowers with James Heappey; Prof. Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia at Department of War Studies, King’s College London and Professor Peter Roberts is a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and retired Naval Officer discuss and wargame how a conflict could play out.

[bangmo]

As a South Korean, it is fascinating that Europe is getting more and more "interested" in East Asia just as Japan and South Korea are more and more “interested” in Europe. Both sides are coming to the realization that what is happening ‘over there’ has enormous impacts ‘over here’ and vice versa

I would like to add some points.

1) South Korea is the dagger of the First Island Chain. So short strategic depth between Beijing and Seoul. The Chinese leadership cares more about 1, 000 deaths in Zhongnanhai, than 100, 000, 000 deaths in Shenzhen. They starved to death 50~70 mil. people to prove that they cannot implement ideal, modernized communes. And the face of this mass starvation architect is printed on every Yuan bill.

2) The US is very cautious not to escalate the tension: none of F-35A’s, Tomahawks, LR Hypersonics, Jassm-ER’s and etc., in the US bases in South Korea. This prudent or rather timid approach is very ‘thoughtful’ from the US perspective.

3) Thus, SK has developed the most lethal, destructive non-nuke weapons indigenously. And as the STEM capability grows, these pieces are getting more and more sophisticated. SK may be the only Western country which has prepared itself for a life-or-death total warfare. I would not be surprised if they have stockpiled 1, 000~2, 000 of indigenous cruise (Korean version of Tomahawks, with the range greater than 1, 500 km) and thousands of non-nuke ballistic missiles, many of which can even reach Xinjiang. How many is a top secret. How long the range is, is also a top secret. We know China knows we know China knows….

3) SK is playing a ‘let’s die together game’ with China. EVery Korean can be wiped out. However, 99.9% of Zhongnanhai will be too. The nukes and missiles of NK (I think China is the real owner) might not be as much threatening as they seem, if ever we could imagine NK would start a war of its own and by its own. SK is building up the most pophisticated indigenous multi-layered terminal phase MD systems (ballistics targeted on SK have very low trajectory. Every one is in termianl phase (under 150 km altitude) in adition to the US-made Patriots and THAAD's and SM-3's(ship-lauunched). I believe UK needs to put some good MD's soon on its soil and sea. Currently UK's MD is almost negligible.

4) When Japan becomes committed (Japan is now moving in this direction), the US-Japan-SK trilateral de facto alliance can cover Taiwan and the Northern Philippines(The Bashi Channel and Luzon).

5) As for the South China Sea, the US may need to organize another set of alliance. (the US-Japan-Australia-the Philippines) And develop Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia as trust-worthy partners, which is not an easy job.

6) This multiple, overlapping alliances/partnership will destroy China.

The problems are: Does each of us, as a nation, have the will? Can each of us overcome domestic political inertia? Will each of us maintain perseverance and consistency?

For South Korea, the existential circumstances are clear. Still its political culture is deeply polluted.

Our worst enemies are ourselves.

[nextechsolutions]

Taiwan manufactures 80% of the world’s Tier 1 semiconductors every year. It takes 3 to 5 years and billions of dollars to build a foundry to make these chips. Every nation on the planet whose economy is based on high-tech industry would be affected by a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And if I were China, I wouldn’t count on getting any help from Russia any time soon. The Kremlin has lost an estimated 500, 000 Men, 3, 000 Tanks and 5, 000 APC/IFVs. In Tanks alone we’re talking 10 times the British Army’s 300 odd Challenger IIs or 60% of the US Army’s 5, 000 Abrams. Half-a-million Men is 7 times the current size of the British Army and 100% of the US presence in Vietnam at the height of its involvement in 1968. Russias Soviet stockpiles of equipment are disappearing and NATO hasn’t fired a single shot. By the way, China has already been cut off from supplies of those Tier 1 semiconductors for over a year now by the Biden administration.

[JJ_Khailha]

For those of the 880, 000 subscribers who don’t know the geographical layout of London could your guests please use language which is better served in describing the measure of distance please? I find miles or kilometres rather useful in this area.

[danmoreman]

So many bad assumptions. No way to catch them all. First, China lacks the transport and logistical capability to invade Taiwan. Not even close. Second, China cannot launch a surprise attack. To mobilize their forces for a hypothetical invasion will be seen weeks or even months in advance. Reserves will be mobilized, mines deployed, targets hardened and allies will be on alert. Third, the mountainous terrain of the island has been described as Afghanistan with tree cover. Forth, the Chinese economy is heavily dependent on trade through the South China Sea and this will stop once it is a war zone. No cargo ships will get insurance contracts to go into a war zone.

I do not respect analysts who do not acknowledge these very obvious points.

[WalrusesAreTheOne]

My dad and his family are in Taiwan. I’ve been scared for years

[candlefire]

Thought I was watching an episode of The Day Today.😬

[plentyofnothing]

"Don't poke the Bear" is used by ruzzia appeasers - anything similar for China? Such as "Don't poke the Panda" or "Don't poke the Poo-Bear"?

[anthonydhan]

Perhaps not everyone is aware of severe strategic weaknesses that the PRC suffers from?

The PRC relies on massive water engineering through dams and irrigation canals and these are obvious targets that will destroy cities, towns, and farm lands. Farm lands that are already insufficient to produce food for the population will be wrecked. Farm lands that require enormous input of fertilizer to produce the massive quantities of food required to feed its population. But fertilizer requires critical components such as petroleum that must be imported by sea.

US can interdict and blockade all see traffic inbound to the PRC carrying all sorts of critical supplies like oil, grain, and other food stuff. US can carry this out from the Indian Ocean, thousands of miles from the reach of the PLA.

How long before massive starvation becomes inevitable? Would the people of China remain passive in the face of a ruinous war started by their own leaders as they face starvation? I would wager that political stability comes into play when the masses are facing starvation. How long can the PRC sustain its war when its supply chain is wrecked, and its people are starving?

[PeacefulnHappy]

CHINA! US! Every nation in the Name of Jesus Christ! Stop this madness, clean up your hearts and minds, forgive your brothers and sisters! We are all here not by choice but because God put us all here! Don’t waste our resources on evil! Instead do good! Help repair our broken world! Heal the nations! Guide one another to do better things. Don’t waste precious life on destruction and war and evil! ❤

[simplesimon]

If there was to be a fight, this guy would tell us about it

[afathersdevotions]

What a horrific tragedy for the free people of Taiwan and for the USA and her security and sovereignty. The world will likely change in unthinkable ways and no amount of “intellectualism” will cover over the horror that will come of this.

[BirgitteBennage]

The level of intellectual rigor and critical thinking among us is commendable.💞

[alib]

Seriously this channel became my favourite one! Love all the content and experts they brought ❤

[overland]

It’s incredibly strange how much unearned credit this show is giving China. As if their plan will go unchecked and perfectly from day one.

[tomaskoupil]

Of course I am desperate to see how the wargame plays out!
You made me excited and then cut it off. Naughty naughty!!!

[stuartmunro]

I think you've done reasonably well in terms of what may be considered conventional forces, but if the Ukraine War has shown us anything, it is that the pace of innovation, especially in regard to a seemingly endless variety of drones and drone watercraft, is if anything accelerating. Too numerous to easily target, and cheap enough that many of the local powers can afford to develop and field them in substantial numbers, I expect they are disregarded at one's peril.

[PeterBull-mnrt]

I am a citizen of Bangkok ... in this week a hot issue became a talk of the town... There is banner billboad display in China language in the middle of the city.. the ads said ..."Now sale a passport and the citizenship in many nationality for Chinese customer".

[kevinclarkson]

Given China's imminent economic implosion the whole scenario seems unlikely.

[lukeblackwell]

Did I miss something? Is there a more imminent threat now? More than the same conversation 3 years ago?

[zibbitybibbitybop]

Does the dude on the video call seriously not know about China's lack of boats for an invasion, or think that Japan would just sit there and do nothing? That's some pretty short sighted analysis right there.