French Defence Strategy & Rearmament - a new war economy, deterrence & strategic autonomy

When I did a video on the German military around 10 months ago, I made one off hand joke unfavourably comparing the Bundeswehr to the French military on a cost-capability basis.

Given the storm of email I got after posting that video, I feel confident saying that there may be a strong perception on the internet that France is a nation lacking in serious military heft, both now and historically.

The reality is that France has long been one of Europe's major military powers, and while no longer the great power it was before WW1, France remains nearly unique among European States for a number of reasons, ranging from being the only Nuclear armed EU state, to being one of the few nations around the world with the ability to meaningfully project power internationally, supported by carrier aviation.

In this video I look at the French military and military industry as they currently stand, but also at what Paris' future plans tell us about the way the French military (and economy) are likely to evolve in response to the war in Ukraine and rising international tensions.

Because with France, rearmament isn't just about building up a powerful national defence, but about relentlessly pursuing 'Strategic Autonomy'

Patreon:

Caveats & Comments:
All usual caveats apply - with the point reiterated that comparing platform and system counts between militaries is fraught with issues. It is done here to illustrate a point but should always be done with caution.

I'd also like to emphasise that when discussing historical events, that discussion should never be taken to constitute endorsement - I may talk for example about the Suez crisis for example without endorsing any of the parties that were involved. It may seem a simple point but I've seen that become an issue on YT in the past so wanted to make it explicit..

Reading and Sources:

Note that this is much abridged as I do no have access to my original source list while in transit - it will be updated in the coming week

Platform figures as per MB2022 &, in some instances, official key figures published 2021

Indo-Pacific Strategy:

For reference - 2021 strategic update

Macron calls for 'war economy'

English version of the 2022 review:

Reporting on increased production of CAESAR

Macron to send military program law to Assembly

Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- FRENCH DEFENCE STRATEGY & REARMAMENT
00:01:38 -- WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT?
00:03:10 -- FRENCH MILITARY HISTORY
00:08:05 -- napoleon's France
00:15:07 -- cold war France
00:17:03 -- FRENCH STRATEGIC POSITION
00:19:09 -- setting goals
00:23:15 -- THREATS AND OBJECTIVES
00:25:46 -- THE FRENCH MILITARY
00:34:12 -- FRENCH NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES
00:45:02 -- A FRENCH ADVANTAGE?
00:46:40 -- selected French and German equipment graph
00:48:11 -- how?
00:55:07 -- INDUSTRY & SYSTEMS
00:58:35 -- European giants
01:02:56 -- protecting export
01:06:04 -- FRANCE'S PLANNED TRANSFORMATION
01:09:04 -- economic preparation
01:12:02 -- FRANCE AND "STRATEGIC AUTONOMY"
01:12:17 -- pursuit of autonomy
01:13:49 -- the challenges of autonomy
01:16:03 -- CONCLUSIONS
01:17:41 -- CHANNEL UPDATE

[PerunAU]

The desire to call this one "no surrender" was strong, but I decided to refrain from doing so. Apologies both for the late release (travel made it almost impossible to avoid) and any disservices to the French language you hear in this video...

Thank you as always to the Patrons who selected this topic after some months in research and production.

[cosmiccuttlefish]

My reaction to hour long PowerPoints is perhaps abnormal.

[d.e.]

As a former french air force officer I wholeheartedly reckon Perun should be (very politely) invited to deliver lectures at western military academies. If cadets haven't changed too much since my heyday, they would love hearing from him, as would higher ranking officers too.

PS : oh and by the way, your french pronunciation is pretty good. You obviously went to a fair amount of effort not to hurt our feelings (granted, we can be absurdly touchy about it) and I for one dig your aussie pinch of salt of an accent :)

[kanpai]

“How one line in a cartoon did more damage to France’s military reputation in the Anglosphere than some panzer divisions”. Utterly savage

[yuvalyeru]

"France is not a prize worthy of ten Russian cities" - 4/5 Russian oligarchs disagree with this statement.

[danielwest]

As a chronically overeducated pizza hut delivery guy, your videos are very easy to listen to while out on deliveries. Thanks man!

[danielpeirson]

I am utterly appalled by the brazen disregard of the Emutopians for their neighbors. Time and time again, the poor Kiwilanders have to deal with crises brought about by Emutopia's unchecked aggression in the region. Great vid Auzzie, keep up the great work. #StandwithKiwiland #ResistEmuAgression

[tasker]

The Simpsons is an Instrument of National Power that should not be overlooked when making plans either at the strategic or tactical level

[Pratt_]

29:48 Member of the French army here (doesn't qualify me on anything that much, but give me some insight) : for us it's a tank (it's even called as such : "char"), it's used like an MBT but for when Leclerc isn't actually the best choice.
It's deployed to provide the same role than an MBT (mobile armored direct fire support with a large caliber gun, including AT capabilities) but with greater mobility at a far lesser cost and way smaller logistical headache, where the US would deploy Abrams in the middle Middle-East, France will deploy AMX-10RC.

But if it's against a force that have actual armored capabilities above an armored technical or a refurbished Soviet AFVs in the hands of some warlords, Leclerc it is, but the AMX-10RC will still be around with different roles, like heavy recon or exploitation manoeuvres and wreck havoc behind enemy lines.

(Fun fact : to make it even more annoying, even though it's the only one from all the AMX 10 vehicles classified as a tank, it's also the only one not tracked)

To conclude : it's called a tank and it's used like a tank, so for me (even though I disagreed before actually looking into it) it's a tank when in French use (and anyone using it like us).

It probably won't close the debate for most but I'm of the side of calling a vehicle in the context of when and who.

For exemple :
T-55 ? 1950s, USSR : medium tank.
In use by any Middle Eastern country ever since : MBT.
Depends of the doctrine and the user and the use, but doctrine always prevail (like the Type-59 isn't going to become a "Riot control vehicle" due to the Tiananmen Square massacre).

[GARDENER]

I actually LIKE France's idea of using a nuclear cruise missile as a "we really fu**ing mean it" message.

[AkiseAk]

Time for the weekly defence analysis which gets shoutouts from active personnel.

The consistency in quality since 'All bling no basics' has been frankly unbelievable

[ohhahhglennmcgrath]

As an Australia ever since I decided to read up on Desert Storm, I've always been fascinated and surprised at how and why the French Division Daguet were given the left most flank and widest flank of the ground operation (and arguably one of the most important). That was way out west with very distinguished US Army troops such as 82nd Airborne, 18th Field Artillery and 101st Airborne. After a bit of reading into their systems, military and strategy it made a lot more sense.

A lot about what you touched on in this video regarding their wider military strategy, projection and armour philosophy confirmed a lot of my suspicions; that France's modern military is a far more capable fighting force than most suspect, that they do so on a tight budget (but still manage, especially for an expeditionary force), and that they like to go F A S T

[thewarwickbear]

A lot is made of France's refusal to join in the 'with us or against us' invasion of Iraq. Remember, France contributed to coalition forces in 1991 and were happy to do so. This war was a justified one. Iraq having invaded and annexed a sovereign nation. The invasion of Iraq in 2001 was unjustified and France was brave enough to say no, not in our name.

[commanderhubert]

If you told me 2 years ago that i would be excited about hour long powerpoint presentations, i’d assume you are insane. Yet, here we are.

[jcloiseau]

I had the chance to spend some time visiting the charles de gaulle aircraft carrier. While the planes, control rooms and many other things impressed me. Knowing it can produce 2000 fresh baguettes each day filled me with warm patriotic pride!

[paoloadam]

The AMX 10 is like a Unicorn: you don't know what it actually is, but you love the notion that it exists.

[angrydoggy]

Having been trained by and having trained with French legionaries and several other country’s elite soldiers, I can tell you the French are amongst the best and most versatile.

[squidgameman]

Perun, would you consider doing a video on South Korea's deterrance strategy ("Three axis")? I think analysing the world's first attempt at conventional deterrance strategy in an economic context is significant, because:
1) pro-nuclear armament discussions in Korea are partly fueled by arguments that conventional-deterrence, even in theory, is near impossible to finance (due to costs involving the scale of missile defense, matching destructiveness)
2) If conventional-deterrence is a realistic policy, other (financially capable) countries can model it instead of pursuing nuclear armament
3) If conventional-deterrence is not viable, whether the benefits of hypothetical nuclear deterrence outweigh the costs of South Korea going nuclear (current nuclear exports getting cancelled, intl sanctions, toll of nuclear arsenal on defense budget)

[xikaijiang]

America: guidance kit for everything, and calls everything an M1 (also uses "freedom units")
Japan: make no change at all, or leap directly to the cutting-edge stuff such as AI and railguns
Poland: just buy everything
France: all about autonomy, hate tank treads with a passion, and believes in nuclear warning shot (s)

Someone should make a sitcom out of this

[HexaSquirrel]

For me as a Brit, I find the French military to be the most impressive in Europe. They've managed to build the industrial base to natively design, build, maintain and dismantle Nuclear powered subs, and aircraft carriers; nuclear weapons; a large aerospace industry, think Airbus and Dassault; a large-ish surface navy; lots of native armoured vehicles including tanks. All of this and more without the technical support or gifts from Uncle Sam.

As a consequence of bringing, and maintaining, industry, their budget goes much further than the equivalent UK defence budget.

Vive la France!