Nuclear Modernisation - Rearmament, ageing stockpiles and why Russia's nukes work (probably)

Why are nations building nukes again? And do the ones they have actually work?

The final years of the Cold War and the post-Soviet era that followed were a period of successive victories for efforts at nuclear stockpile reduction and disarmament.

But in 2023, efforts at new arms control agreements appear dead in the water, and many nations are now either looking to replace old systems or, like China, expanding their arsenals beyond their present levels.

In this episode, I look at nuclear modernisation, new delivery systems, and the industrial and financial challenges involved.

Patreon:

Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Nuclear notebook for national inventories:

RAND - US China military scorecard (featuring counter-force modelling)

NNSA on Plutonium Pit Production

Government Accountability Office on US Nuclear Research and Production

GAO on nuclear forces sustainment and modernisation

GAO – “NNSA Does Not Have a Comprehensive Schedule or Cost Estimate for Pit Production Capability”

Congressional Budget Office Projected Costs of US nuclear forces 2021 – 2030

CBO Projected costs of US nuclear forces 2023-2032

USAF Nuclear Weapon Centre Sentinel factsheet

Mattis and the nuclear sponge

NNSA warhead activities factsheet

NNSA W76-1 Fact sheet

CSIS Brief on US Nuclear Modernisation (Hersman, Rodgers & Farabaugh)

US 2022 National Defence Strategy

CRS on the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review

CRS on Nuclear Triad
Reporting on claimed failed test of Sarmat

First Strike IMDb entry

Kristensen, McKinzie & Postol - How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuze

Reporting on production of Pits at Los Alamos

Report on Sarmat going “on duty”

Wired – on Russian nukes not working

UK House of Commons Library – Nuclear weapons at a glance: UK

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply and please see the pinned comment for corrections.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps
00:00:00 — Nuclear Weapon Modernisation
00:01:08 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:57 — Cold War Proliferation
00:08:47 — Nuclear Legacy And Renewal Decision
00:12:07 — How And Why Of Building A Bomb
00:21:45 — United States
00:34:54 — Russia
00:54:27 — China
01:02:22 — France
01:07:08 — United Kingdom
01:10:55 — Conclusion
01:11:48 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

This is a video that's been in the works for a long time - and it was great to see it finally place in a poll and get tagged for finalisation and release. I do however have an Edit for a correction - Early on I describe the Manhattan Project and B-29 as the first and second most expensive US development programs of WW2. The B-29 program was in fact the more expensive of the two, with the Manhattan project coming in second. I also at one point credit a Bulletin of the Atomics Scientists source to the Federation of American Scientists - the source list in description is correct but the audio is not.

I hope you're all happy with the presentation and, as always, I wish you all the very best.

[kenjohnson]

I once attended a presentation from the guy, who at the time, was in charge of the maintenance and reliability of our nuclear weapons. He described the difficulty of testing and maintenance under the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty roughly as follows. Imagine you are in charge of a vast collection of old classic cars and it’s your responsibility to make sure each and every one of them will actually start the first time you turn the key, but while you can test and repair or replace individual components such as the battery, fuel pump, starter motor etc., you can’t ever actually turn the key and start one. I found that quite thought provoking.

[GeorgeAndGeorge]

Ah yes, nuclear rearmament, exactly the thing I needed to see while eating my breakfast. Keep up the great videos!

[LocalCryptidGhostdoll]

"If it has to be horrifying, it might as well be funny too" one of the few times I'm truly proud to be Australian

[wswordsmen]

No the most expensive WWII weapons program was the B-29, which cost $3 billion. The Manhattan Project only cost $2 Billion.

[meezo]

I believe that micro nuclear weapons that can be fired out of a 20mm autocannon should be available to the public. Its a good idea, trust me.

[pudgeboyardee]

Let me put it this way: my AP chemistry teacher had worked as a nuclear physicist for the DoE. He could not be issued a passport as one of the terms of employment because he designed, built, upgraded and generally serviced nukes.

By 2006 he was teaching high school. Academic Physics was so crammed with other people like him that AP Chem in a 5th rate Midwestern school lab was all he could get.

We were not maintaining that industry. Private sector didn't care and the government kinda let it go. Pure military jobs had some numbers but most scientists resist the uniform. I get it, they're academics at heart and most are part-time philosophers. Hard to herd.

I'll bet he's busy now. Hopefully he was smart enough to remember to insist he only be a consultant. Get paid Dr lavoy

[syjiang]

I like the French nuclear doctrine, so frank and straight forward with no BS. Topped off even with an appetizer nuke to spice your palate.

[Valkyrie]

Millennials grew up being taught "thank God that's over, that was really dumb" about so many things lol

and then they immediately happened again, before we even hit 30.

[donbalduf]

I’m the wire editor for a chain of U.S. newspapers. Your work helps me select and judge the accuracy and value of stories. I listen every damn Sunday.

[TrevelyanOO]

Learned more about UK nuclear capabilities in this public internet video hosted by an Australian, than I ever got from my friends working at AWE. They won’t even admit if they had a good day at work or not…

[monsteraddict]

These videos need to be permanently archived. We’re living in a new Cold War and these videos are like documenting history as it developed.

[paulsakz]

"The human consequences were dire... and the birds of course, survived..." Bravo Perun, you had me laughing so hard I spilled my chocolate milk 😂

[tlozfreak]

You could probably make an entire video just on nuclear-capable subs, tbh. The logistics of not just working with those things but crewing and maintaining them are immense.

[ianmilbrodt]

Perun, please never stop making these amazing videos. They really have permanently changed my perspective on a variety of issues.

[_random_commenter]

20:05 - "The birds, of course, survived."
Easily the most terrifying part of the video, imo. How can Kiwi Land hope to stand against such a fearsome opponent?

[manuelschneider]

Perun: Dark humor is going to be heavy
Me: YAY!!!

[luigistringuine]

I think it's funny how Perun evolved from being a video game channel to one of the best in-depth military analysis channels on youtube

[michael_]

Love my Sunday morning coffee, accompanied by a dose of geopolitical apocalyptic truths. Thank you!

[richardthomas]

Even if half of Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal didn't work, for whatever reason, they would still have the third largest such arsenal in the world.