Japanese Defence Strategy & Rearmament - Japan's ambitious plans & lessons from Ukraine

Among wealthy economies, Japan has long been one of the lowest spenders on Defence as a percentage of GDP.

Japan's culture of pacifism is rooted in the nation's post-war experience and the restrictions on its rights and ability to wage war set out in Article 9 of its post-war constitution.

But Japan's economy is deeply dependent on the global security situation, and with rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific and the shock of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine Japan's plans have undergone a sudden transformation. Old taboos about long range weapons have dropped away, and a huge influx of spending aimed at overhauling JSDF capabilities is now being planned.

There is no change to Japan's constitution, and Japan's cultural and legal restrictions on the use of force remain deeply entrenched - but the capabilities of the JSDF are likely to change.

In this video, I look at Japan's strategic position and the present strength of the JSDF, unpack Japan's 2022 defence strategy, and what impact it may have on both Japan's capabilities going forward.

Patreon:

Caveats and comments:
Regarding % of GDP by industry - these are always fraught by issues (direct or indirect impacts, year etc).it's probably better to give a range saying Japanese GDP which may range from as low as 15 percent upwards - I apologise for giving the impression of false precision

While these presentation focuses on Japan's strategy documents as described - it is impossible to comprehensively cover their content. It should not be relied on (for example, to guide business or investment decisions).

I'd also like to note that I'm aware that these productions make heavy use of humour, sarcasm, Australianisms and irreverence - these videos are intended to be entertainment - but I do not wish to come off as being disrespectful.

I also refer to the re-opening of Japan in 1850s as involving a steam-powered ironclad - that is incorrect. Mississippi was a steam powered paddle frigate - but she was not armoured.

Sources and further reading:

Platform and personnel counts as per Military Balance 2022

Defence of Japan 2022 (EN)

National Defence Strategy 2022 (EN)

Defence Buildup Program 2022 (EN)

JMSDF BMD ship:

Japan deploys UUV

Japan to acquire 400 tomahawks

US, RoK, Japan BMD exercises

Reporting on Quad exercises in Indian media

Polling on Okinawa basing:

Japan and US to expedite equipment development

Sample (illustrative only) opinion polling

Japan, Sweden, & GCAP

Strategist article on build up options for the Japanese submarine fleet

Interview commenting on DIB margins in Japan

Japan approves 26% spending increase

Reporting on Japanese LNG imports

Reporting on the build-up announcement

The case for Japanese land power in the first island chain - War on the rocks

Timestamp:
00:00:00 — Japanese Rearmament
00:01:38 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:41 — Historical Development
00:15:07 — Japan's Strategic Position
00:21:43 — The JSDF
00:34:13 — Industry & Systems
00:38:18 — Japanese Strategic Thinking
00:43:01 — Building Up The JSDF
00:59:41 — An Alliance Driven Force
01:06:05 — Challenges & Options
01:11:41 — Conclusions
01:12:32 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Thanks again to the Patrons who voted for this topic (and for all of you more generally that have helped this channel grow in the way it has).

There is no doubt that Ukraine remains the critical security topic and needs to be covered, but I do think it's worth keeping an eye on developments around the world, as the wheels of geopolitics keep turning.

As always, please check out the sources and caveats if you are interested (and the correction noting that USS Mississippi may have been a steam powered paddle frigate, but she wasn't an ironclad. Sorry that made it through editing).

[maxkennedy]

“I want a sports car, a Cruise missile, a highly agile prop driven fighter, some jet fighters, a warship, a colossal merchant ship, a modern MBT, artillery shells, a high performance motorbike, high speed rail infrastructure and a pickup truck”

M I T S U B I S H I H E A V Y
I N D U S T R I E S 👀

[bow-tiedengineer]

Japan seems to have the general philosophy of "If it isn't broke, don't fix it, when something breaks, fix it so good you don't have to touch it for several decades."

[luigilain]

"it had a great plan on how to gain an initial military advantage. what it lacked was a reasonable plan on what to do if the other side refused to give up when they were meant to. I'll leave the audience to make any comparison to any other modern conflict"
that was absolutely brilliant!

[yutahkotomi]

Japanese person here! I'd like to offer my thoughts and observations as a citizen of the nation this video covers. I'd also appreciate, if possible, Perun and other people who read my comment replying with their reactions to it. :D

First of all, as a quick aside on the sengoku jidai, samurai is like a pop culture term in its nuance. When speaking more historically or academically, the term "bushi" (武士) is more accurate. Now onto the main part.

The JSDF's existence is a legal grey zone, and Japanese courts have avoided ruling on its constitutional status, with one judge who ruled it being unconstitutional being overturned and promptly transferred to a dead end position.

On how the JSDF even came to be, there's the fact that Article 9 was proposed by the Americans after WWII, but after the Cold War started the Americans quickly realized that was kind of a mistake and outright told Japan to establish the National Police Reserve upon the outbreak of the Korean War I. 1950, since US troops moving from Japan to fight in Korea meant that Japan was left undefended. And setting the tradition of giving military forces discreet names, don't let the "National Police Reserve" fool you, they were training with bazookas and riding tanks; kind of weird for a police force I must say. It was then renamed the Nation Safety Force in 1952 and finally reorganized into the JGSDF in 1954.

I do believe that while the Japanese public generally supports the JSDF's existence, there is a certain level of disconnect between them. As a pacifist society, the Japanese don't think much about the JSDF, and even if they support it they only have a vague idea of what they are and what they do. Other than occasionally popping up in the news, for the vast majority of the public the JSDF leads a quiet, unassuming existence. It's like the elephant in the room, except the elephant is the size of a cat and everyone doesn't really care until it scratches someone.

Of course, in recent times the JSDF has been covered in the news more often as the topic of increasing the defense budget came up, and on this point I have to disagree with Perun. As far as I can tell, support for increasing the defense budget is not a clear majority, but only a bit above the 50/50 line. The Japanese economy as of late is not very good, and the price of goods has been increasing sharply ever since the Russian invasion, and combined with Japan's pacifist tendencies, even the current geopolitical climate is not enough to convince everyone of a necessity to bolster defense. More to the point, the Kishida administration announced its plans to increase taxes in order to secure the budget for defense spending among other things, and on this point a vast majority disagree. Tax increases are always a crowd displeaser, especially in this economy.

Also, fun fact about Japan's Izumo-class -aircraft carriers- helicopter destroyers, which definitely haven't been upgraded with a heat-resistant flight deck for VTOL jet operations and haven't had their bow expanded so it looks completely like the bow of a traditional aircraft carrier because they're definitely not aircraft carriers:

The second Izumo-class 'destroyer' is named _Kaga._ Those with an interest in naval history may recognize this name. That's right, a previous _Kaga_ has existed in the Imperial Japanese Navy as a, guess what, _converted aircraft carrier._ It's one of the most famous Japanese aircraft carriers, alongside her pair the _Akagi, _ and participated in the Pearl Harbor strike, and fought in and was sunk at the Battle of Midway.

[Mrinsecure]

"Imagine two rich kids throwing $100 bills in a fire and whoever still has money at the end is declared the winner. The winner of what? Wouldn't you like to know, you loser."

Literally made me do a spit-take. Thanks Perun.

[grfrjiglstan]

Doc Brown: “Oh, things are looking grim, Japan’s rearming itself.”
Marty: “What are you talking about, Doc? Japan’s our greatest ally.”
Doc Brown: “…great Scott.”

[funpolice]

As a Texan, I can indeed confirm that just as every samurai has his gun, every proper cowboy has a sword.

[michaelg]

How can you even produce this powerpoint video's and read all the material beforehand chop it up into layman understandable chunks and at this high level for weeks. No. Months and months. Just amazing. Kudos to you, Perun!

[barnwellmattfenn]

Minor points of correction: The ship that arrived at Tanegashima wasn't wrecked, it was blown off course and making a stop. Some Portuguese traders were aboard and were interviewed by the local lord. He asked for a demonstration of their matchlocks and bought them after being impressed. Hand cannons of various types already existed in Japan for sometime via import from the Ryukyus (Okinawa et al), but European firearms were much much better thanks to innovations like adding a stock and rifling.

The 500 matchlocks were ordered by Nobunaga's father Nobuhide, and the order was so large at the time that it caused the industry itself to expand. He didn't get to enjoy using them much though as he'd die like 3 months after the order was completed.

[mariusvanc]

Japan is a far flung island nation, it requires a large blue water-capable navy even for just self-defense. An aircraft carrier capable of launching counter-offensive attacks to retake occupied islands seems very reasonable to me.

[Buzzdog]

I originally learned of you thru a game named Terra Invicta. Imagine my surprise when YouTube suggested a video giving an in-depth analysis on the conflict in Ukraine. In an age of echo-chambers your channel and content are a treasure. Thank you.

[alexandermuller]

to speak for many people who watch your channel: There is definitely room (or better, demand) on the internet (youtube specifically..) for good, well collected and non clickbaiting content like yours. It doesnt matter that you use slides.. heck, i just listen to you (the slides are nice though).
The declining format of radio could just broadcast your stuff every sunday at 10pm and see their listeners steadily improving again...

[discordmoderator]

Would like to see a video about North and South Korea, their respective positions in matters like global industry, politics, military on a macro and micro scale, and how a potential reunification might be achieveable.

[jamesnoland]

I think a video on India and their complicated alliances would be incredibly interesting. As always, fantastic work.

[andrewccobb]

I participated in a joint exercise with the Japanese military in Yakima in 2012 or 13'. They are exceptionally disciplined, professional Soldiers.

[tristanrobb]

I would like to reiterate the thanks Perun gave to the subtitler and audio guy. Both of yall’s work help so much in making these videos understandable and enjoyable. I personally needed subtitles for the first few episodes I watched; it helped immensely in catching words and phrases I otherwise would have missed.

[michaellaramee]

A Sunday morning without a Perun video is a Sunday without a sunrise! Thank you for all you do!

[randompheidoleminor]

19:07
For those looking for further reading that technological masterpiece (not) of a torpedo was the MK14 torpedo.

They were so babied that the training manual was locked behind a safe and the Navy never even test shot one before the war, and said war promptly began with 200 of those precious torpedos being blown up on pearl harbour, and those that survived proving utterly useless.

[olterin]

I never thought, before Feb 24 2022, that I'd be planning my Sundays around a youtube powerpoint presentation. Many months later, I'm still here and see no reason to stop this habit. Your presentation style is very informative, yet at the same time engaging, with a dose of humor that keeps the attention going. Kudos for all the hard work (to everyone involved in making these videos happen), I cannot really imagine Sundays without a Perun video anymore.