Is Germany about to Send Tanks to Ukraine?

CORRECTION:
Since we wrote and animated this video earlier this week, there have been reports that (as we predicted in the video) Germany will indeed agree to re-export licenses for Leopard-2 tanks. According to a report from Politico on Tuesday evening, two sources close to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have told Politico that, as well as agreeing to re-export licenses from countries like Poland and the Baltics, the US and Germany will also send M1 Abrams and Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine themselves. The total number is expected to be somewhere around 100 - far fewer than the 300 the Ukrainians requested, but definitely a non-trivial number. According to the Politico report, this will all be officially announced sometime later today.
This video mostly covers the contours of the argument over the last couple of weeks, so we hope you nonetheless find it informative and entertaining; apologies either way!

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Ukraine has been asking for more Western military support, and especially for modern Leopard-2 tanks. However, the US and Germany have been reluctant until recently. But could sentiment be turning in the West? And what impact would this have on the war?

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[TLDRnewsEU]

CORRECTION:
Since we wrote and animated this video earlier this week, there have been reports that (as we predicted in the video) Germany will indeed agree to re-export licenses for Leopard-2 tanks. According to a report from Politico on Tuesday evening, two sources close to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have told Politico that, as well as agreeing to re-export licenses from countries like Poland and the Baltics, the US and Germany will also send M1 Abrams and Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine themselves. The total number is expected to be somewhere around 100 - far fewer than the 300 the Ukrainians requested, but definitely a non-trivial number. According to the Politico report, this will all be officially announced sometime later today.
This video mostly covers the contours of the argument over the last couple of weeks, so we hope you nonetheless find it informative and entertaining; apologies either way!

[maxsupernova]

And as I was watching this, the news alert came in that Germany has agreed to send the Leopard-2 tanks.

[napoleonibonaparte]

A few points:
1. Baerbock is foreign affairs minister, not defence.
2. Adding another MBT type is logistically taxing, especially when they have ~8 different types of tanks, and dozens of other types of vehicles of differing types. Poland should send all of its PT-91 tanks as well.
3. Germany has an enormous reserve of Leopards, just not in active service. German tank companies are willing to bring them back to use and have been waiting for that signal from the government since day 1.

PS: That is such a weird way to say Patton.
Post PS: The Swiss are likely deciding to allow munitions transfers to Ukraine.

[monibrehm]

Annalena Baerbock is the Foreign Minister btw, not the Defense Minister. Just a heads up

[ichliebeketchup]

4:44 this is Annalena Baerbock and she's minister for foreign affairs, not defense

[SRFriso]

There's a quote from retired General Ben Hodges: "We need to decide that we want Ukraine to win." We've given them what they need not to lose, that's why it has been in something of a stalemate. Now it's up to stand against Putin's nuclear blackmail.

[LiveFreeOrDieDH]

"But they haven't even filed the proper paperwork!" is the most German response ever.

[MarcinMoka]

Heads up, Poland was sending T-72’s and PT-91’s, not T-64’s

[fatty]

They approved yesterday according to the news...so definitely a big yes.

[KommandoCraftLP]

This is probably the biggest diplomatic move Scholz has done so far. He does appear weak or even invisible in the media but managed to pressure the US to also send Abrams. This may seem small, but had Europe sent loads of new tanks then KMW (the producer of Leopards) couldn't have replaced them fast enough so the countries sending tanks would've had to buy Abrams themselves, drastically increasing american leverage over Europe (as an addition to the financial consequences).

[mynameisjeff]

4:45 that woman is not the defense minister. She‘s the foreign minister.

[mab]

I myself don’t understand why they ONLY want the German tanks. Meanwhile the Americans, the French, and us (UK) can just deliver them battalions of tanks virtually on-call.
Then again, from WWII to now, German tanks always have a fearsome reputation... My late grandpa always shivered a bit when he saw a Tiger or just simply an 88 on film.

[zhufortheimpaler]

A small but very relevant correction:

Germany does not have 350 Leopard 2´s.
Germany does have 266 in active service and a REQUIREMENT for 325 in active service.
This leaves germany with about 60 Leopard 2´s short of the requirement set up in 2017.
This means, that germany has not enough Leopard 2´s in active service to fully equipp all its 6 armored Bataillons, because of the 266 in service at least 14 are A5´s that are used as red force demonstrators in combat training and a maximum readiness rate of 76% is achievable.
As a result, germany has not enough Leopard 2´s in active service to equipp at least 1 1/2 Bataillons of its armored forces.
If you take units out of these pool, you shrink the german armored capability down to a maximum of 4 bataillons, of wich 2 are currently on deployment and 2 are in training and making ready for rotational deployment plus preparations to deploy a full armored division to the eastern flank wich requires 3 bataillons.

in this light, handing over in service equipment is something that has to be carefully considered and communicated wiithin NATO.

[jaredmoss]

These videos are awsome, timely made and sharp and to the point, great stuff.

[Mikachu-owun]

They have already agreed. Thanks for a great video as always.

[amilidis]

Dear TLDR EU team, could you do a video on Turkey's stance as a trading backdoor between Russia and the world?
Should the EU also sanction Turkey?

[AmateurHEROduelist]

I don't get what all the arguing is about Germany didn't say no Heck Poland didn't make a formal request until yesterday

[colko]

A bit of "too late to publish"...

I'm German and I support sending "heavy metal" to Ukraine. But the published opinion the last days or weeks were disturbing. Sometimes a "Germany-bashing" especially from Poland.

The Leopard 2 is a good tank, better suited than the Abrams for sure, but it has a big flaw. There are too few to make a real difference.

There are around 2000 of them in Europe, but half of them are in Greece, Turkey, Switzerland and Austria. They won't give one tank to Ukraine for reasons.

The other 1000 were mainly in 5 countries, Poland, Finland, Spain, Sweden and, of course, Germany. These are of variant types (A4 to A7 and different export versions) and very different states of readiness. There are some smaller numbers in Portugal, Norway and the Netherlands (the Dutch army legally owns 0 Leopard 2s, their tanks are leased from the Bundeswehr). The Czech Republic and Slovenia are getting a handful by the "Ringtausch" for their donations of soviet era weapons to Ukraine.

So the number of available Leopard 2 is an issue. Therefor it has made sense to consist on the delivery of the Abrams. It's the only western tank in large enough numbers.

But why didn't anyone blame the Americans for their "shady" arguments?

[kingace]

Poland's trying to sound like it has the moral high ground when it's looking sus in this, too.
All in all, I do agree that it is probably about time to send in those battle tanks. This isn't just for Germany but also for US, France, and other NATO member states.

[DrVictorVasconcelos]

The truth is that the initial 20% of the difficulty of using military hardware is pretty low, and you perform at 80% performance having learnt that. It's literally meant to be able to be used by conscript (non-professionals) grunts having mental breakdowns.