Wagner Opera: Coup Prospects and the Fate of the War

In the early morning hours of June 24, the Wagner Private Military Company entered Russian territory and took over a major city. The Kremlin has scrambled to respond, and it appears that the country is in the middle of an open rebellion. What will determine whether the plot succeeds? And how will it affect the outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

0:00 The Coup Begins
1:44 Russia's Logistics Problem
3:24 Coup Coordination
6:56 Information and War
8:29 Putin's Private Benefits

[Gametheory]

The joys of commentary as a situation is unfolding! Here's are my updated thoughts given the announcement that Wagner is turning around:

0:00 This is still a good summary up until this morning.
1:44 We will need to keep an eye on whether this affects Rostov-on-Don's ability to resupply. I noted in the video that Wagner was not actually stopping anything, so not much has changed. It's still a big concern for Russia if anything does happen.
3:24 This is how coups work broadly, so it's still a useful watch. Unclear whether the reason Prigozhin backed down was because he was not getting enough momentum fast enough.
6:56 The rally this will give the West is probably the biggest takeaway from the whole affair, assuming nothing else weird happens
8:29 The affair did not go on long enough to give Putin political cover to vacate, but it is something to keep in mind if the internal conflict recurs.

[animean]

This isn't a civil war, this is a special domestic military operation.

[pointersandarrows]

We should take a moment to acknowledge his ability to create this video on the very day Wagner is marching toward Moscow. It's truly remarkable and deserves much appreciation!

[nathanfay]

Well done Mr. Spaniel! I'm impressed by how fast you got this video together! If it was an all-nighter to make this happen, please take some well deserved rest, you rock :)

[NothingIsKnown]

This war has been a true roller-coaster. Shock, despair, wrath, hope, more hope, and now… hilarity.

[jamescusack]

How on earth have you (and your team) managed to create this so quick? Kudos to you William!

[kaypee]

You're an amazing journalist, video creator, and educator. I've had only a handful of professors who I can actively sit and listen to intentively like I do with your videos. You're a godsend to this generation, keep it up brother.

[pizzajoke]

Ah. So this is what you meant by “it’s going to be a long night.” Pulling an all-nighter to put together this quick update. We appreciate your work to keep us updated and informed on the tactics involved in all of this chaos.

[pabcu]

It’s crazy how Wagner is blitzing through Russia in a day

[Ehyobillingsyo]

Just shows how quickly things are developing. We’re already tracking Wagner blowing through Lipetsk Oblast on their way to Moscow. If Wagner can cause a leadership flight from Moscow and occupy the city I think that would essentially signal regime change in Russia.

[francesco]

I just want to point out that Wagner took more territory in Russia in 1 day than they did in Ukraine in over 8 months.

[alexanderweinrich]

Wow, this conflict is changing so fast! We thought there would be a civil war but it seems like instead they’ve reached some kind of deal

[Rohnon]

Taking Kiew in 3 Days failed.
Can Wagner take Moskow in 3 Days?

[TheAmazingCowpig]

I was hoping we'd get a William Spaniel video on this soon, but I didn't expect it this quickly. How exciting, even if it is definitely still a developing situation.

[smc]

_"They live to settle Old Scores, and they have a LOT of Old Scores to settle."_

My Grandfather's reply to my childhood question, "Why are there so many Wars in Europe through(out) History?"

He died in 1979, but these words remain with me to this day.

[awesomehpt]

I was used to the fact that European wars and coups were a thing of the past. Things are a bit too exciting for my liking these days.

[medul]

watching this develope over this morning was quite interesting... good to see your covering it so quickly!

[silvanski]

Prigozhin called off the march on Moscow. So was all this no more than some sabre rattling? Prigozhin is an Interesting character to put it mildly.

[Gillemear]

One other consequence of all this that i heard is that Wagner runs most of the Russian's operations and bases in places like Syria, Africa and the like. Will be interesting to see what happens now that Wagner is an enemy of the state. Will regional commanders switch to supporting Russia, go out on their own, support the local government or get taken over by those same governments?

[oveidasinclair]

Rostovon is the MAIN logistical point for the entire Russian Ukrainian operations, Wagner left a holding army inside Rostovon. Ukraine is most likely negotiating with the various Russian commanders in the South and east, keep in mind the precarious situation that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station is in right now. These various Russian Generals & Colonels are tantamount to war lords right now if Putin falls, they have their armies and they will be jockeying for a position in a new Russian government, I seriously doubt they want their own bargaining chip/army wiped out by the Ukrainians at this point.