Where Does EV Come From in Poker?

GTO Wizard helps you to learn GTO and analyze your game.

The value of a hand is the sum of future outcomes. In this video, Tombos21 shows you how to examine runouts to understand where your hand’s expected value comes from!

• Counterintuitive Calls by Andrew Brokos

GTO Wizard
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Where does EV come from in Poker?

0:00 Intro
0:23 Where does EV come from?
1:52 Red line vs. Blue line
6:14 Runout Analysis Technique
7:10 Example 1
12:12 Example 2
15:58 Example 3
22:06 Outro

#GTOWizard #GTO #poker

[pokerlogik]

This video/concept just changed my life. Such a clear example of how the internal philosophy of the game is actually even MORE apparent when looking at solver studies. People often get trapped by all the counter-intuitive spots and think solvers are playing a "different" kind of poker, but analysis like this shows exactly how a strong player's intuitions line-up really well with optimal play. Excellent video 🙏

[CancelIFR]

Tombos is a top 2-3 poker content creator. S tier.

[MrTjthorso]

This is probably the most impactful poker instructional video I've ever seen. And I study quite often. There's not another video I've seen that gets drives home a critical point this well in 20 minutes.

[keithdunlap]

I would nominate this video for best instructional video ever.

[entropyli]

Great video! Thanks for sharing. Learnt a lot! Just one to share some of my thoughts on the blue/red line topic. The prove of the 6 GTO bots play together, blue line will always be positive and red line negative is that: for any hand, it ends with 2 scenarios: won by showdown, in this case, if some player contributed to the pot but not see the showdown, then the total red line winning goes down, blue line goes up, and the amount is different by the amount that player contributes. And if a hand ends without a showdown, the total red line and blue line stays the same. So eventually, blue line always up and red line always down, except that HU situation, our third player that contributed to the pot by not see the showdown can’t be exited.

[redbaronlast]

You got mad teaching skills, bro 👌👏👏👏 (saying this as as someone who partly teaches for a living)

[erronblack]

Love these videos. So clear and easy to understand.

[GThOe]

This was so great. WOW. Tom hits a home run again. And how wonderfully concise! You're a legend Tom keep it up.

[jimz]

Example 2: Most interesting part to discuss is the non turn barreling of Kdiamonds.
Interesting because it is choosing to fire all of the other board pairing diamonds, likely due to potential of running into boats, and a big chunk of our opponents range when the money goes in being top pair two pair or sets which can become houses by the river

[Nadestorms]

Your content is outstanding. I’ve recently subscribed for MTTs and within 2 weeks I feel like I’m crushing and scored a 80x cash (3rd of 1011).

🧙‍♂️ 🧙 🧙‍♀️ 🙏🏼

[hrrld]

Great video as usual - one thing that stuck out to me as interesting is that you never activated the "Strategy + EV" view -- the final example of checking down KQs/KQo is sort of interesting, but what is the actual EV of getting involved with those holdings preflop to begin with? And moreover, what is the EV once the ace-high flop comes? Thanks as ever for these videos (and GTO wizard itself (!)), very thought provoking and helpful.

[Kyle_Lucca]

great video ty! would love to hear more about blue and red line theory stuff in another video

[FCarraro]

This video is really awesome! Can't wait to play around with this concept!
Me, I have always trouble in some cases to understand if EV comes from being called or getting folds, because sometimes I see the solver, especially with low spr, jamming hands that don't fold out better and don't get called by worse except some very rare and mixed calls by dominated hands, and this confuses me. For example, in a 4 bet pot, it may raise jam AJs on a T high board even if opponent is like mix calling with AT and then calling with AQ+ and folding K high or lower. My question is, are those calls from dominated A highs enough to warrant my jam?

[robertmoeller]

it is unclear to me what you mean by redline being transferable to blue line. could you explain?

[offsuitunderdog]

Hey so I’m really not understanding GTO as well as I need to. Where should I start to get a better understanding of GTO?

[luftlayersoroma]

I don't understand the theory. How can it be when 6 GTO bot plays against each other every bot will have negative red line? It is mathematically impossible. If someone lose x amount of chip than the other win the same chip. It is 0 sum. Same with blue line. Are you sure about this theory? If yes, can you explain? Thanks! (update: it can happen because in some multiway pot, one player fold, but the other 2 goes to sd, then one player's red line lost chip appears at the other players blue line...)

[josephfienga]

lol @ how good gto wiz and this kind of material are together.

[andyychong]

I’m not sure why on the example of Ad8d on K67, hitting an 8 on the turn card is a bad card for us? I was thinking at the very least it’s a neutral card for us or even a good card since it’s gives us more outs to hit another 8 on the river. Also, it completes 45 right. Can anyone explain? Sorry I’m still new to solvers and trying my best to understand. Thanks in advance! :)

[cmares]

So "In Theory" having a falling red line is what is "supposed" to happen in a 6-max cash game??? You constantly hear everyone trying to pull the red-line up to be flat or positive sloping.

[young]

Really hard to play gto when villain bets all he has