How soon can a NATO-Russia war happen?

It's a mistake to assume that the war in Ukraine must end before Russia can be a threat to NATO. This idea is built on a paradox, and it doesn't take into account the question of Europe's limited defense resources. On the contrary, a Russian attack on NATO could be a way to improve their chances in Ukraine.

0:00 Intro
0:24 Why Russia could attack NATO
1:54 Different time estimates
3:19 Why not now?
4:09 The sequential scenario
5:45 The simultaneous scenario
7:37 A way to divert resources from Ukraine

[easkj]

I don't like how much sense he makes

[Zereniti]

I'm in Finland. Having all these discussions across the media talk about how a war between NATO and Russia is a real possibility, while living in a frontline-country (a country that was mentioned as a likely target for Russian aggression on this very channel) is.... troubling.

[matthijsklomp]

One of your more important messages thus far!

[frankhollinger]

Hej Anders, faldt over dine videoer. Utroligt gode og informative. God weekend!

[AlexP-mibc]

I suspect it's going to be the little green men in the Baltics.
Latvia is especially vulnerable with its eastern region of Daugavpils with ~50% ethnic Russian population many of whom support Russia.

[umjackd]

When analysts predict a "war" everyone immediately imagines a large scale conflict and you're very right to point out that there are a lot more possibilities than just that.

[pRahvi]

What deos the [obj] in the subtitles mean?

[ThanosMoist]

I'd like to hear more about your thoughts concerning the recent replacement of Zaluzhny. Keep up the great videos!

[maurice]

I follow geopolitics since i cannot remember, and I follow Ukraine war in real time since de beginning. I follow French, American, Austrian and of course Ukrainian bloggers that I consider credible, without ignoring the propaganda content that will always seeps trough. None of the sources I can find is close to be as good as you. Your calm, factual and knowledgeable analysis are far beyond everyone else that is available. And the fact that you post not so often and relatively short videos emphasises the concept that you post when you have something to say, say what is needed and move on. This is a far cry from most of the « content creators that gets trapped in the reward system of platforms. Thanks for the content, thanks for the help understanding how it works.

[g-]

Opening a second front will probably have the same outcome for Russia as the germans during WWII. It can give short term relief for the pressure in Ukraine, but in the long run they will be dealt with.

[guld]

Har fulgt med i krigens døgn siden første afsnit fedt lige at finde ud af at du har en YouTube kanal!

[Pyrozen]

A lot of EU countries are starting to implement a mandatory military service period. Here in Croatia, its said it will begin by the start of 2025. And we are all ready calling for our reserve troops to be retrained. Things ain't looking good. Seems like everyone is preparing for something.

[iberiksoderblom]

The three Baltic states should be scared!
Due to Kaliningrad, will Russia - via Belarus - try to start something like Gleiwitz against Lithuania, and then "come to the aid of Belarus"?
Or stirring things up in Latvia, with a huge Russian presence that are known to be hugely backwards to a rapidly modernised, liberal and inclusive Latvia.
It's a reason its very important to have a strong NATO presence in those countries of troops from several NATO members.

[emmokaemingk]

Again a very interesting video. For me it could even happen tomorrow that Russia in a disguised way could attack Estonia to help the Russian speaking people there. Make it look like a "civil war" like in 2014 in the Dombas.

[GRILL]

Excellent content. Never thought about an attack on nato while fighting in Ukraine.

[richmorin]

To a large extent, the Ukrainians are getting older materiel and the supporting countries are buying and/or creating new materiel for themselves. So, they ARE improving their own inventories, as well as rebuilding their manufacturing capabilities.

[constipatedwonka]

Looking at how Russia has acted in Georgia, Ukraine and even by a smaller extent in Moldova (Transnistria) it's very evident that Russia is going by "divide and conquer" strategy. It's never gonna try attacking NATO directly, but it will do all it can to weaken it. My guess is that before any direct wars happen in the Baltics, we'll see instability due to Transnistria and Kosovo (Serbia remains supportive of Russia for a reason). Maybe even Greenland or Malta, as both of these islands aren't formal NATO members. As far as the Baltics go there will be attempts to rile up resistance factions or even civil wars, allowing Russia to weaken these countries without technically ever setting foot inside them.

To put it another way, the less people are worried and prepared for a war, the more likely it is of happening. Likewise, the more people are concerned and ready for a war, the less likely it is that Russia's sabotage attempts will succeed.

[krpwypb]

Thank you, insightful and thought provoking as always.

[wcraigburns]

Fantastic pod cast . No gimmick just great reporting .

[radekjanuszewski]

Always awesome. Thanks for continuing to post these.