Ukraine's Kherson Campaign - Lessons & Implications of the Southern counterattack

Sponsored by Ground News:

Description:
While much of the narrative around the early stages of Russia's 2022 invasion centre on the battle for Kyiv and the reverses Russia suffered there, in the South, the Russian invasion was altogether more successful in its opening moves.

Advancing from Crimea, the Russians rapidly secured a number of critical positions in the South of the country, including a regional capital on the right bank of the Dnipro, the city of Kherson.

The fighting to take back Kherson would be some of the hardest for Ukrainian forces. They would face a number of high quality Russian units who were heavily dug in, and they would do it over unfavourable ground.

The fighting would take months and claim many lines before the final Russian withdrawal in November.

This is the story of that campaign - from the city's fall to its liberation, along with some of the lessons and observations that we can (with admittedly low confidence levels) make using the data available so far.

Caveats:
Data quality and certainty will always vary video to video. In the case of this video, the topic in question is battlefield movements and the conduct of operations. As such, there is a considerably lower level of confidence than there are over major economic patterns for example.

I expect that at least some of this analysis will be refuted or augmented by later discoveries or data releases - at which point I will prepare an update. But given the implications of this campaign, I thought it best to try and tell the story now, with the best information we currently have available.

Patreon:

Further Reading/Sources:

Several maps used credit of the Institute for the Study of War, eg.

Visually confirmed loss statistics as per Oryx:

RE: Russian media statements - special credit to the work of people like Julia Davis & Wartranslated

Telegram extracts from both the Russian MoD and Russia's Kherson administration are used - as always I do not link directly to these but they are credited here

Regarding the Antonovski campaign - the best thread documenting strikes and inadvertent BDA is maintained by the Twitter User Special Kherson Cat

Graphics from the videos of Kings and Generals Included:

....and to all those interviewed or questioned directly in preparation for this video.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:02:36 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:18 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:04:29 — The Fall of Kherson
00:07:20 — Victory at Mykolaiv
00:09:34 — Steady Transition
00:10:19 — The Shaping Campaign
00:12:06 — Telegraphing the Offensive
00:14:25 — The Himars Campaign
00:16:51 — The Crimean Dimension
00:17:51 — Concentrating Capability
00:20:00 — The Campaign Begins
00:21:44 — The Attack Goes In
00:22:42 — Russia Claim Victory
00:24:52 — Announcing Victory
00:26:04 — Continuing Pressure
00:27:21 — Supply, Attrition, Corrosion
00:28:05 — The Story of a Bridge
00:29:33 — Back and Forth
00:31:45 — Final Days
00:32:55 — The End
00:33:04 — The First Cracks
00:34:42 — The Withdrawal
00:39:03 — Reclamation
00:40:09 — Losses and Military Observations
00:44:39 — New Capabilities...
00:46:06 — ... And Old Ones
00:47:10 — The Cost of Victory...
00:47:52 — ... And of Defeat
00:49:10 — Interrogating Losses
00:50:48 — Some Very Old Stuff...
00:53:33 — Reactions & Significance
00:53:52 — Ukrainian Elation?
00:55:35 — Russia - Confusion and Anger
00:57:39 — International Community
00:58:55 — Discrediting "Annexation"
01:01:00 — What Next?
01:01:12 — Reading the Terrain
01:03:55 — Redeployment Opportunities
01:05:23 — Towards a Winter Campaign
01:07:24 — Conclusions
01:10:19 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

I really hope the late releases don't become habit - but thank you for your patience regardless.

Once again I extend thanks to returning sponsor Ground News, who have been recurring supporters of the channel:
Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. ground.news/perun

But my biggest thanks goes to those in Ukraine and Russia who provide pictures, insights, or input into events in Ukraine and Russia. I still have a backlog of contacts to get back to and people to engage with, and I will endeavour to reduce that backlog as much as possible this week now that my health seems to be improving. Using anecdotal information and small samples of images is always problematic from a data perspective, but I appreciate the time and effort that goes into reaching out to commentators like me.

[KingsandGenerals]

Thanks for the shoutout, we appreciate it!

[robertbaltha]

Dear Perun, I have just submitted 3 of your videos to Columbia University. You are now an entrant in 2 categories - Explanatory Reporting and Public Service😇 who knows, maybe the jurors appreciate your work us much as we here. So, let's hope you'll be awarded a Pulitzer👍

[washinours]

"but in war - like in many other fields - it is much easier to declare the intention to do something than to actually do it"
Never in my life have I felt so personally attacked during a powerpoint presentation

[Compulsive_LARPer]

"Working more slowly than normal though - so patience appreciated."

Mate. The sheer quality of your content (it is truly a blessing to have access to such interesting and informative presentations for free) more than makes up for anything.
Take care of your health and rest. I'm sure I'm speaking on behalf of most of your audience when saying that we will all be here for your next video, no matter if it takes more than usual.

You are such a brilliant, criminally underrated, content creator.
Immense gratitude for what you do, brother.

[DerpsWithWolves]

Can confirm as a Canadian, some of the kit I was issued was rated for -40 degrees.
Not even my winter kit, mind you, just the 'standard' cold weather coat.

The proper winter kit was rated for everything up to and including standing on the arctic ice sheet.
It gets cold here.

[OneLeatherBoot]

My wife's auntie passed away in a captured village outside of Kherson in September. Not from direct action, but from a heart attack due to the stress from the constant shelling they were living under. Still a victim of the war none the less.

Another aspect not really mentioned, is the number of losses around Kherson (as well as other fronts) from the increase usage of Russian drones like Lancet and the Iranian variants from late September on. The battlefield is evolving.

Edit: It will be interesting to see what happens once he Dnipro freezes over in winter.

[TheRadicalCentrist.]

I've been watching this guy's videos for most of the war. His absolute, drop-dead, bone-dry humor is the best. No break in cadence or tone as top-shelf zingers fly by.

[sarahsanford]

You mentioned who suggested Zelensky visit Kherson, I'm 100% sure this is his idea. He recently said in a press conference that his head of security Max was having a heart attack all day. Lol In her recent book, Zelensky's former press secretary said before the full scale invasion he would regularly visit the front lines in Donbass to check on his soldiers and have to argue with his security detail to let him get as close as possible. That's just him.

[blazinchalice]

Who else remembers the Ukraine troops riding all terrain vehicles along dirt roads armed with javelins to end-run Russian tank columns on the road to Kiev? That was some very quick, out-of-the-box thinking and went a long way towards shutting down the Russian advance. The courage, adroitness and tenacity of Ukraine's forces are truly inspiring.

[specialK]

1. Never thought I'd be so enthralled about power point presentations, but I LOVE your videos. Keep up the great work.
2. As a Ukrainian-American, I really appreciate that it seems like you really practice/try to pronounce the Ukrainian cities correctly. Don't get me wrong, I don't get upset when people don't as I totally get it Ukrainian and English are very different languages, but I appreciate the fact it seems like you really care.

[ovonevalja]

The only point missing is that Ukraine's win at Kherson has secured not only Odessa and Mykolaiv, but also Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol and prevented 2-side attack to Zaporizhzhia. All of that is HUGE and frees additional Ukrainian units for other fronts.

[alicetaylor]

I thought the corruption series was brilliant! I appreciated this video and the emphasis on how difficult and costly the Kherson campaign was and is. It's not done yet! Sometimes the commentariat under videos and articles forget that these are real humans fighting these wars, not CGI superheroes with oversized weapons and not enough clothes on, and that the "blood, toil, tears and sweat" (to quote Churchill) is all too real. This Kherson video did not suffer from your sick days. Get well soon! 🇬🇧 🫱‍🫲 🇺🇦

[Philkramer]

Watching your videos feels like being the President of the United States getting his weekly intelligence update on Ukraine. Incredibly detailed, impartial, yet also entertaining with the occasional joke here and there. Thank you for your time and effort that goes into making these videos. Really helps making sense of all this. While the media coverage here in Germany is not bad at all, your analysis goes so much deeper and gives vital context to so many topics. I remember your video on Germany‘s military budget and procurement issues explaining it so much better than literally ANYONE in the German media. Keep doing what you do!

[abraham]

Wake up, Baby. A new Perun video has been released

[edwardkennedy]

I'm a little late here, but I have something to add to everything said from the point of view of a humble participant. The campaign to liberate Kherson was the most tedious in my experience, but at the same time, we all did not have the nervousness that was in the defense of Kyiv and the breakthrough to Chernigov, not to mention the events of the past eight years. Everyone knew exactly what to do and did their job very well. And not only regular military personnel, but also volunteers, policemen and territorial defense. Everyone gains confidence when an ordinary accountant with an interval of forty minutes shot down two ka52s from a Soviet igla. However, achieving results was not easy. Speaking more specifically, the Russian defense itself was a multi-level fortified area not directly connected to each other. For example, in the tree line was the first line of defense, in which there were fighters of the so-called people's republics. This line was weakly fortified and had practically no anti-tank systems. Behind the first line in the next line of trees was the second line of defense, already with regular troops. This line was, as usual, better fortified, but nothing more. And then followed a fortified area connected by systems of trenches, sometimes even with concrete shelters for equipment. The purpose of such a defense was to delay the advancing troops as much as possible and to squeeze us between two or three such fortifications while their artillery and aircraft would grind us on the spot. The problem with this plan was that Russian artillery hit their own positions at least half the time, and aircraft, especially helicopters, bombarded us from a long distance with non-guided missiles. As for the attack aircraft, after the first losses, several impressive cases of friendly fire and the previous strike on the airport in Saki, it practically did not fly. However, this did not make the task any easier. The enemy still had more tanks and other armored vehicles, and in order to find weaknesses in the defense and clearly understand the system on which it was built, it was necessary to carry out rather risky local offensive operations. It seems that it was then that the Russians began to happily report that the offensive had failed, and the Ukrainian army had lost about 12-30% of all armored vehicles. Some even talked about 50%, as well as the loss of the entire fourteen brigade, which, by the way, was at the forefront in the Donbass at that time. The first line of defense was broken somewhere in the course of two weeks of systematic work. As a result of breakthroughs in several directions, part of the fortified areas were under the threat of encirclement and the Russians were forced to retreat. At first, the retreat even looked organized, but when our attack aircraft intervened, it turned into a flight. But even then it was not so simple. By that time, although having unfavorable logistical conditions, the Russians had transferred reinforcements and if our army had continued to advance further, it would have been stretched out over a large area and would have come under a powerful counterattack. Therefore, the new line of contact at that time was the settlement from Dutchny to Arkhangelske. Military experts (or those who like to call themselves that) expressed their confusion why our troops did not take advantage of the moment to immediately break into Kherson, but time showed that the decision to first strengthen new positions and then continue the offensive was correct. I think the last straw was not something specific, but a combination of all factors. In particular, it is worth noting the inability of fresh mobilized reinforcements to support the regular army and yet a softer attitude towards them than towards those who were recruited from Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russians apparently do not consider these so-called Lungandonians to be people at all, despite all the bravado statements that they came to protect them. Now the shelling of Kherson continues, but not massed and without specific targets. By the way, today there was already light in the city, after retreating Russians blew up substations. It will be a long time before normal life is restored, but nothing is impossible, especially for those who do not give up.

[LAVATORR]

12:53 "Say what you will about Russian military intelligence, they did notice when Zelenskyy said he was going to attack Kherson."

This is a beautifully subtle line that deserves more love.

[thomasparsons]

After this war is over, a collection of stories from Zelensky’s security team would be great. I remember early into the 2022 offensives how Zelensky was out and about in Kyiv. I doubt we’ll get it right after the war ends, but hopefully in the decade after.

[rozkaz]

Pretty incredible, for someone not super into military matters the way they managed to capture the area without having to grind in urban combat was interesting

[briangasser]

The quality of work you can do in a week while still holding a day job is amazing. Proud to be able to be a patreon sponsor to support your work.