Russia's New Offensive & Ukraine's River Crossing: Avdiivka to Kherson - Costs & Consequences

As we head into December, Ukraine is getting colder and the campaign friendly weather of mid-year is long gone. Despite that Russia has launched perhaps its largest offensive of 2023, targeting the salient around the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka - burning through armour and manpower in the face of a stubborn Ukrainian defence.

At the same time, with it now clear Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia offensive will not reach its objectives this year, Ukraine has escalated its efforts on a different front, establishing several small bridgeheads across the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast.

In this episode, I look at some of the key Ukrainian and Russian offensive efforts of late 2023, examine the data we have on losses and attrition, and ask what the fighting might tell us about the state of the forces involved, and the way this war is being fought.

Patreon:

Relevant Reading:
The sourcing for this episode will look slightly different to normal as it relied more heavily on released footage, imagery, attestations from involved parties etc.

As noted in the video - credit to a number of sources for their work analysing, collecting or compiling the lost data relied on here (including Warspotting, Oryx, Frontintelligence Insight (and @,Tatarigami_UA) @Naalsio26, @Rebel44CZ etc.)

Article in the Economist by Ukraine's Commander in Chief on the current positional nature of the war and Ukraine's requirements

Featured TASS article on Russian war aims

Ukrainian source on the 350 armoured vehicles claim used for comparison with VC loss data

Spotting of LMUR in Jan 2023

Source image for the older Dnipro raids

Various example reports on Avdiivka & the Dnipro crossings

10-15,000 FPV figure being reported

Corrections & Caveats:
All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video.

To those I'll just reinforce that while visually confirmed loss data is, in my view, a very useful tool when trying to analyse events in Ukraine - it is obviously far from perfect. Please remember that whenever reality and neat analysis collide, reality wins.

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:08 — Pre-winter Objectives
00:06:07 — Zaporizhzhia
00:09:46 — Kherson
00:19:13 — Avdiivka
00:33:16 — Assessing Losses
00:52:38 — Trends & Adaptations
00:59:31 — Observations
01:04:51 — Conclusion
01:05:38 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

This one had a few tech issues going up, but thank you for your patience as always. As noted in the channel update, if you have a question you'd like to nominate or endorse for a Q&A format video in December, please post it in the comments of this video, or add it to that community post.

And as for the video itself, I need to emphasise that I don't claim to have perfect information, far from it, but watching the imagery out of Avdiivka convinced me that this topic absolutely needed a video. The rate at which destroyed vehicles were being identified was an outlier, even by the standards of this war. So while I've refrained from an overly emotive headline, it hope the charts and analysis speak for themselves. I do not know what the near term outcome in Avdiivka will be at the point this is recorded. Losses and seized ground is not mutually exclusive, and the position of the city is precarious and an honest assessment would be that all outcomes, including the city falling or holding, are on the table. Time, as always, will ultimately tell.

[VoidAspect]

"An ATACMS induced ventilation upgrade" Perun truly is the master of deadpan 😂

[jonathanryan]

I never thought I'd live long enough to want a weekly PowerPoint presentation more than a new tv show... but here we are. This couldn't have happened without Perun's amazing understanding and presentation of the topics either. Kudos.

[Ennkay]

Never in all of my years would I have expected 'Cadia Impression' as a synonym for stern defense

[Axterix]

Correction: the general rule is not that the attacker has to lose 3x what the defender does. It is that the attacker wants 3x the forces the defender has.

[brianmulholland]

I've heard multiple military commentators who are frustrated by the continued (mis) use of the 3-1 attacker to defender ratio rule-of-thumb. This rule was meant to be a PLANNING rule. As in, if you want to be able to attack a position and have a fair chance of taking and holding it, you need to attack with 3 times as many guys as are defending. It then got misappropriated and applied to expected losses...which was never it's intent, and isn't even remotely true historically. There really isn't any consistency in relative losses between attacker and defender as implied by the misused 3-1 rule.

But it's one of those things where now that this is in the zeitgeist, nobody can get people to stop quoting it.

[BobOgden]

Perun the fact that you are able to produce week after week of such engaging material is nothing short of amazing . Each one is its own unique gem.

[BrettCoryell]

"I know a lot of you came here for the statistics and the assessment." Yes! And as usual, you delivered. Love the channel. Thanks Perun.

[owleyes]

I don't mind all the caveats and caution you put in your videos, it reassures me that this is an accurate source of information. Thanks for keeping up the work of educating laymen like me on the war.

[Magic-V-P]

Thank you for your videos Perun. This war has been a life changing experience for me in the sense I have dedicated large amounts of my time trying to understand the conflicts around the world. I've come to realize how difficult it is to consistently find accurate information on such topics.

You're the first channel on YT I have decided to support through Patreon. The information you provide is priceless. In a world of echo chambers, parasites that make money off tragedy, and propaganda, your channel is a torch that shows people the path to understanding the truth. I hope you continue to grow your channel and find ways for more people to see your videos.

[toysoldier]

I really appreciate the fact that Perun doesn't oversell the efficacy of VPNs during the sponsorship section.

[fattyMcGee]

The defences around Tokmak is some of the most comprehensive and well defended dug in positions in not just the world, but modern history. The fact Ukraine has been able to push through parts of it is itself truly amazing. I know it’s not what people were hoping for, but it’s worth commending and shows they are very much capable of making use of western aid.

[benlowe]

Perun's sarcasm and black humour is on an upward trajectory.

[williamlloyd]

If anything, the ATACMS threat compels Russian aviation forces to put a couple of hours of use on the aircraft engines during every mission. It also gives more warning time to Ukrainian forces. Additionally, puts pressure maintenance resources.personal resources and spare parts inventory.
PS — There must be a reason Russia is an attempting to buy Russian helicopter engines back from foreign countries.

[VoxApollyon]

Ahh, Perun. How I missed your hour long videos while working at the construction site. This shall be a good listen at work.

[MoonatikYT]

the world's focus was on palestine so russia said "we have a chance to get away with something REALLY stupid"

[Argosh]

A finer point that will only be possible to research post war is the impact of western equipment survival rates. Most of the tank crews that went improvised mine seeker in the south actually survived. I doubt that will be even remotely comparable to what the Russian's tank crews around Avdivka suffered.

[enzoguy]

The Cadia reference nearly made me spit my drink out 😂

[bienemaja]

Hey, there's no reason to weight-shame the Leopard 2. Just because it's gained about 9 tonnes over the last 40 years or so. Could happen to any of us 😉🤣

Great video, as always. Thank you!

[jakegarvin]

I was watching a video about a certain American organization. The presenter told me that this organization had done business with russian pmcs. Thanks to Perun I knew that the presenter was talking about Gazprom's pmc. Thanks, Perun!