Pandemic Science, Reducing death rates

Estimating the infection fatality ratio in England, (21 August, CEBM)

IFR falling over time

ONS, IFR, as of 4 August, 0.49%

(95% Credible interval, 0.36% to 0.67%)

MRC, IFR, as of 28 July, 0.30%

(MRC Credible interval. 0.22% to 0.4%)

23rd June, IFR, 0.69%

Charts

CDC deaths and comorbidities

Data to 22 August

Deaths = 161, 392

For 6% of the deaths

COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned

For deaths with comorbidities, 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death

Respiratory

Influenza and pneumonia 68, 004

Chronic lower respiratory 13, 780

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, 21, 899

Respiratory failure, 54, 803

Respiratory arrest, 3, 282

Cardiovascular

Hypertension, 35, 272

Ischaemic heart disease, 18, 103

Cardiac arrythmia, 9, 821

Heart failure, 10, 562

Cerebrovascular disease, 7, 653

Metabolic

Sepsis, 14, 053

Malignancy 7, 415

Diabetes, 25, 936

Obesity, 5, 614

Alzheimers 5, 608

Other dementia, 18, 487

Renal failure, 13, 693

Others

Injury or poisoning, 5, 133

Others, 77, 990

Care homes in England had greatest increase in excess deaths at height of the COVID-19 pandemic (Stirling, 30 August)

Of all deaths registered as COVID-19 related in the UK

17,127 (31%) occurred within care homes

At least 21,775 (40%) were care home residents

Scotland

Highest proportion of care homes affected

Highest proportion of care home deaths attributed to COVID

Excess deaths in care homes

England, 79%

Wales, 66%

Scotland, 62%

NI, 46%

Professor David Bell

It will never be possible to unequivocally assign care home deaths during the pandemic to COVID-19 or other causes

Excess deaths data is next best thing

Smoking deaths

7, 000, 000 deaths per year

COVID deaths, 2020, 846, 971

England, 2017, 14.4% smokers

COVID deaths, 2020

Deaths, 41, 586 (UK) or 52, 091 (England and Wales, weeks 1 - 33)

Smoking deaths, 77, 800

16% of all deaths

Australia, 2015, 11.6% smokers

COVID deaths 652

Smoking deaths, 21, 000

12.5% of all deaths

US, 2018, 13.7% smokers

COVID deaths, 183, 068
Smoking, 480, 000 deaths per year
41,000 passive
16, 000, 000 living with a disease caused by smoking

[vasilvasilev]

I have to say thank you for your videos! Been watching them for a while! My mom recently contracted CoVid at her work place (office job). She is 62 and has all the standard core morbidities: overweight, diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease... I was petrified. I was dead scared she wouldn't make it. She gave it to her partner who is 10 years older (same core morbidities). Both survived without even being hospitalised, although they literally could not walk for 2 weeks.

[pinkfloydflamingo]

What older folks need is information to assess their risks and make health decisions based on their own situations with politics removed from the equation.

Dr. Campbell presents a longer, more nuanced analysis of the information out there than the sound byte garbage that passes for journalism these days.

Thank you for the comments about ventilation. So many simple common-sense measures give us self-help ways to mitigate the damage.

[justylex]

So blatantly obvious that this disease picks on those with metabolic issues...hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, dementia/Alzheimers (believed by many doctor’s to be type 3 diabetes). Of course, obesity is a common factor for all of the above. It is pretty much a guarantee that if you are obese, you are harbouring one or more of the above conditions regardless of whether you have been diagnosed or not. Best thing people can do right now is get off of refined sugar, refined carbs and all processed food! I did it 3 years ago and completely fixed my metabolic health. And yes, vitamin D plays a role here as well. Metabolic issues makes it more difficult to properly absorb vitamin D.

[samyoubg]

Thank you very much for updating every day Doctor Campbell

[sallytheseeker]

I just came across your channel a few days ago and am happy I did. You are the calm voice of reason I've been searching for. I appreciate your well researched and open minded presentation. Thank you, Dr. Campbell.

[dailydoseofmedicinee]

Healthy ways to strengthen your immune system👍

Don't smoke.

Eat a diet high in fruits and vegetables.

Exercise regularly.

Maintain a healthy weight.

If you drink alcohol, drink only in moderation.

Get adequate sleep.

Take steps to avoid infection, such as washing your hands frequently and cooking meats thoroughly.

[christianbuczko]

If 70% of the victims were in carehomes, how many ACTUALLY died of covid, and how many died due to lack of hospital care for the comorbidities???

[henryfate]

Anyone who's worked in a nursing home understood from the beginning of the pandemic that the death rate would be disproportionally high. I would hope that people would also understand the great psychological damage that the survivors have suffered.

[afreeman]

It just might be that the vulnerable sections are still in lockdown with only the less vulnerable clubing, pubing and partying.
I'm elderly and everyone I know of of a similar age rarely venture out unless essential so we are not catching the virus and are still alive, ie we are not in the death figures like we were in the begining of this pandemic so the figures are not comparing like with like.

[helpingeachother]

Thank you, Doc! Appreciate all you do in keeping us informed. Continue to stay well and safe.

[cargumdeu]

On airplanes, John, the filters used to work just fine when the air had to be turned up high because of smokers. Once they banned the smokers they found they could turn the pressure down which allowed the filters to get clogged with viruses. The worst thing about plane travel these days is you pick up every bug in that tube.

[mimicanada]

I am very concerned about winter as well. I told my whole family to take vitamin D regularly. I tell people about the importance of ventilation often. I wish the modern buildings were designed to have windows open! Great video, thank you 😊

[rosemarieloncaric-spataro]

Shameful how we haven’t protected the elderly.

[antoineduchamp]

John, we see and heartily are grateful for your splendid daily 30 mins+ videos, packed with science-based information.... there is no-one to hold a candle to you doing this work...
Just to say all of us just see your finished product, i.e. the polished broadcast. We do not see all the huge amount of preparatory work and thought that precedes each and every video... it most certainly must be very substantial. This message of mine is to say thank you, and moreover all respect to you for the huge amount of work you do for each and every one of these amazing videos.

[mavis]

Great to see you as always Dr. John, you have been a legend to me since I started watching in February

[brendabrass]

Thank you Dr Campbell. My Dad died from lung cancer after smoking for over 50 years. His WWII rations included cigs. Times change, maybe not fast enough

[natdionne]

Excellent information as always been with you from last March thank you for all you do John! Greatly appreciated and always look forward to your information Canada Muskoka give us a shout out

[silentangel.ie-abe]

Thank you Dr.John great news .. Hopefully keeps heading in the right direction

[lynpearson]

Really important point about ventilation. That still hasn't got through to enough people.

[stephencorsaro]

We won't know what actual consequences are until post pandemic studies are completed. The sequelae from this virus include heart disease, lung damage, kidney failure (15 % of survivors are dialysis candidates), vascular disease, brain damage, auto immune diseases and cancer from viral vectoring. The excess deaths are only the tip of an iceberg. Long term health problems will add hundreds of billions of cost to health care costs and they be reflected in higher costs to everyone. We were ill prepared to deal with this pandemic even as some of us and our governments knew it was a clear and present danger. Will prepared policies change? I doubt it. Even now deniers of science are spurred on by corporate interests.