Pandemic, Global Update

The top 10 causes of death

56.9 million deaths worldwide in 2016

54% were due to the top 10 causes

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Independent global health research organization

University of Washington School of Medicine

Rigorous and comparable measurement, world’s health problems, evaluates strategies

Global Review

Cases are remaining constant

250,000 per day since August

Approximately one infection in 10 has been detected globally to date

31, 483,001 = 314, 830, 010

Assuming 1,000,000 deaths

IFR = 0.32

Daily deaths are decline

Just over 5,000 a day in the last week

Making COVID-19 the sixth-leading cause of global mortality

Progress in Latin America except Argentina

Surging cases in Europe

Continued epidemic expansion in India

Expect

Decreasing vigilance of the public in many countries

Northern Hemisphere seasonality will lead to a major global surge in daily cases

Deaths increasing late November and December.

Projections

30,000 deaths a day in December

January 1, 2021, total deaths, 2,667,497

Fourth leading cause of death

Herd immunity strategy

Up to 70% of individuals can get infected in a situation of near-random mixing

Actual percentage probably less

No further government action when the winter surge begins in the Northern Hemisphere

Deaths by January 1, a total of 3,618,640.

Mask use can save more than 730,000 lives by January 1

43% of the deaths expected between now and the end of 2020

More on herd immunity

Multiple locations in Latin America are now at over 40%

Ecuador and Mexico City

Indicating percentages increase to at least these levels

With herd immunity at 40% cumulative infection

Highly optimistic

Less than one quarter through the epidemic on January 1

10.4 million deaths

With herd immunity at 50% cumulative infection

13.1 million deaths

Only if we end the pandemic everywhere can we end the pandemic anywhere.

Having flu and Covid-19 together

Prof Jonathan Van-Tam

Significantly increases risk of death

Double whammy

n = 58 people

UK, early phase of the pandemic.

Hospitalised

Tested for both viruses

Very ill

Coinfection, deaths, 43%

COVID only, deaths, 26.9%

If you do think you have either flu or Co Vi D stay at home and self-isolate

30, 000, 000 doses of flu vac

50-64 will be offered flu vaccination

Children 2 – 11

Essential workers

[gingin]

Gidday from Australia! Love your work Dr John, I watch all your videos 💕 Here in Queensland we currently have a total of 5 active Covid cases out of a population of just over 5 million. We still have restrictions on the size of gatherings, you can't dance at clubs or drink standing up in a pub, rest homes have restricted access, we follow social distancing, supermarkets have perspex screens to protect the staff, nearly all shops have hand sanitiser at the entry and we have border closures. Our Premier and Chief Medical Officer hold daily press briefings with the latest updates and we have now had a number of days with 0 new cases. I'm grateful to live where I do considering the carnage going on in some parts of the world.

[phillydavison]

Panic buying starting up again but people won't wear face masks I mean I just give up with these people.

[dawnpiper]

I left work today appalled. I was going round wiping doorhandles rails lift buttons trying hard to keep everything safe and I got shoved and jostled out the way. Got told keep your trolley out the way and I have lost all hope now came home and cried

[evansforsyth]

Hey Dr John! I'm in awe of the time & effort you put into instructional design, researching, organizing, and producing your videos. What we see is the "tip of the iceberg". (I taught technology-based distance education for years . . . you are awesome!)

Thanks for the high quality, evidence-based information. So good to watch a master at the top of his game!

Particularly appreciate you citing your sources.

[terencehawkes]

Thank you for repeatedly being a source of good clean unbiased information. It is rare.

[mmmmorphhhh]

What a crazy world we are in. Thank you for making sense of it all, Doctor!

[annab.]

I am an American citizen. I went to school in the 60s and 70s where science was still taught in school. My parents were farmers so we lived a life of nature, natural physics/biology, and industry. During my 30-yr career in high-tech, I have been shocked by the lack of peoples’ basic knowledge of the natural world (food production, the weather, the care/feeding of animals and plants, etc.) so I am not surprised that most Americans would not see the danger in a tiny virus. And why not? Compared to other parts of the world, US citizens and their children have had it so good for the last 50-60 years (no wars, no famines, no pandemics, no civil war, at least enough money for all basic needs) that as a group, they can not image anything bad would happen to them. Add the belief that bad stuff always happens to someone else (usually due to some intellectual or moral failing), and you have a county of people who just don’t want to be bothered with anything that makes life more difficult than it needs to be.

[mikokenqvist_gl]

Been here since the beginning. Thank you for all the informations.

[sweetcountrylivinginmichigan]

Once again, another very informative video. The USA needs to hear more of this. I am grateful for it.

[NS.]

Thank you for explaining everything and being a calming influence Dr Campbell. I can’t believe we will still be here at Christmas! 🎄

[sarahashcroft]

Please can you look at the false positives from the testing in the uk... its concerning to say the least. Thanks John for all you do!

[nataliyakolesnik]

Dr. Campbell, I just wanted to support you in regards of your comments about WHO. You have never called them any names and were treating WHO with respect, that honestly, they did not deserve. In my opinion, some WHO members have been acting corrupted in terms of current pandemic, which is an obvious disaster for all of us. You have all reasons to be upset. Appreciate your knowledge, honesty and multiple talents. Thank you!

[Mrs.TJTaylor]

Here’s another simple way to guard our health; go easy on sugary and highly processed foods. Get exercise and fresh air.

[cindythomas]

You are the person I trust about this .. I am 65 with other ills from since 25
I go with MASK and wipes . In my country USA . About 5 people came up to me and started trying to spit on me and grabbing my mask .
Our President does not care if we die
The worry for me is my grandsons..
I am 65 my husband died 5 years ago so I am ok
But my grandsons William 16, Michael 15, Landon 7

Can I please say we have no person telling the truth here because of TRUMP!!!!

[ithacacomments]

Please pray for my son who works in a automotive parts factory, in the USA, that has not taken the pandemic seriously.
This week, there were 8 cases among the 1, 500 employees.
All workers are still to report to work.

[LeftUnderSounds]

Been following you since January. You are the best source of information by miles. A humble expert educator that everyone should listen to.

[adriancaldwell]

PLEASE Dr Campbell address the false positives otherwise all these figures are way off

[vietnam]

Vietnam

Cases 1, 069
Deaths 35

The last patient in Da Nang has been discharged with no cases left after weeks of extensive testing.

[PeterHanebury]

Thanks for another great update Dr. Campbell!! Please keep them coming. It would take me a full day of searching news outlets to get the same level of understanding that I get from you in 30 minutes.

[scepteredisle]

The reason is because unlike the other big killers, covid-19 causes insane levels of hospitalisation all at once, resulting in even higher deaths amongst those big killers and a break down in generic hospital services. That's why governments are so concerned. If covid-19 spread the deaths out over the year and had low hospitalisation thy would not care.