Pandemic update, Tuesday 29 September

US
90% of population remains susceptible (Dr. Redfield)

NYC

Rising cases

Indoor gatherings

Public schools opening

Private schools and none-essential business may close

Florida lifts all COVID-19 restrictions

Cases, 692,234

+ 16, 540 in past 7 days

Positivity rate, 5.33% to 7.54%

Gov. Ron DeSantis

No longer fines for not wearing face masks

Restrictions on all businesses, restaurants, bars, lifted

Every business has the right to operate

Some of the locals can do reasonable regulations. But you can't just say no

a full Super Bowl (NFL) in Tampa in February

Local governments may implement limited restrictions ……

If they are able to prove the decision can be justified based on both public health and economic factors

Why we have restrictions

Population, 21. 48 million

Probably 2.2 million immune

19 million not immune

13.3 million (70%) potential infections

Potential hospitalizations, 665, 000 (5%)

Potential 40, 000 deaths (0.3%)

Excess deaths

US updates symptoms

CDC data

Growth rate in real time

Hospital admissions data

Washington University data

Europe

Batch of its Sputnik V sent to Belarus for clinical trials, starting 1st October

UK

Cases, 6,874 + 6,042 + 5,693 + 4,044

Cases, 19, 247 + 19, 661 + 19, 523 + 19,373

Active cases, 211, 777

847 swab tests, 7th 20th September

Could be back to May levels within 3 weeks

England R = 1.4

Scotland R = 1.3

Wales R = 1.4

In 7 days

North West, tripled from 12,544 to 36,316

North East and Yorkshire, more than doubled from 12,916 to 27,731

London, doubled, from 9,291 to 18,200

The number of cases in the UK continues to rise at an alarming rate as we are seeing figures doubling weekly across the country (TS)

The government has confirmed that our data from our loyal app users is playing a critical role and currently providing the most up-to-date figures

France
Government, no plan to order a new nationwide lockdown

Russia

Victor Maleev from the Russian Academy of Sciences

Well over 8,000 daily cases

I think that infections are going to rise now and we will approach a plateau, and then a gradual decline will begin, there is unlikely to be a peak

The plateau will probably be at the start of October

Brazil

Death rates high in April and May

? herd immunity

Increasing cases this month

Efficacy of masks and face coverings in controlling outward aerosol particle emission from expiratory activities

(Nature, Scientific Reports 24th September)

Examined micron scale particle emission by mask-wearers into the surrounding air

Surgical and KN95 masks reduce outward particle emissions

Coughing, 74% reduction

Speaking, 90% reduction

Decreased the outward particle emission of a coughing superemitter

Who emitted up to two orders of magnitude more expiratory particles via coughing than average

? virus-contaminated fabrics can generate aerosolized fomites

Importance of regular washing of homemade masks

[JimJWalker]

As a Floridan I will continue to wear a mask, social distance, avoid large gatherings, wash my hands, and disinfect anything I touch in public before I touch it regardless of what the governor says.

[petercamusojr]

As a retired person, I have been in isolation since mid February. I am lonely, but surviving. A 2 dimensional scale represents my life.

As a young person my daughter is in a much more complicated situation. Her job is closed. (Wedding bartender).
She runs around getting supplies for old people.
Schools are closed, so home schooling via public system. This limits time for a job.
She trying to find alternative employment.
She is trying to pay the rent, buy food, pay utilities in another words live a basic life.
She is trying to avoid getting Covid-19 or anything else.

She is juggling multiple balls hoping not to drop any of them.

She needs for the economy to reopen to survive!

I did tell her to up her sun exposure for vit D.

Lockdown is not an option.

My daughter is an unrecognized hero!

[MrMrMr]

Hi from Tasmania, I feel so fortunate as we don’t have any active cases and life is relatively normal. We are a low populated island of Australia and the borders of Tasmania have been shut, only open to essential travellers. Thank you John for your informative information since February.

[williamtheobald]

Hi, once this awful situation is behind us could we ask for more soup videos? Keep up the good work (but give yourself a rest) and congrats on being in the top 1000 UK YouTube channels.

[RachelLovejoy]

The old adage "Better safe than sorry" is all anyone needs to know. It doesn't get any simpler than that.

[geraldjlemoine]

I thought the Covid -19 wasn't serious but after my wife's friend live's in Moscow, fell ill after going through cancer radiation treatments had gone back to work as dentist. She has fallen ill to covid 19, three people from the same family in her apartment building died from covid. 7 doctors in the hospital that she is being treated, died from Covid -19. I take vitamin C with zink and D 3 everyday.

[knightowl]

You’re an unsung hero dr John . I’ve been taking vitamin D daily, since you started recommending it ...touch wood I’ve been fine...keep the good/great work up.

[pikey_greg]

A friend of mine was a non believer of covid.... he's tested positive for covid, day 9 and he's still poorly, I had covid back in March and was sick for 9 weeks, had a rash and covid toe and very bad chest pains, now my toe nails are falling off 🙈 this virus is real....

[cowsmart]

The main point of Wash, Face, distance, or whatever it is called is to stay away from Sars Cov2 for as long as possible..even after 8 months, so much more is known about treating covid19 than at the start when so many died from ignorance and guesswork. The longer we stay clear the better chance we have if and when we do pick it up.

[juliahanson]

God bless you for all your hard work. I am from the USA: I retired from adult ICU a year ago and "hiding" in the countryside.

[MANOFSX]

Just want to notate that it is the opposite in Florida. Summer months you can't go outside for long periods of time. Winter people go outside more often. It may explain why our cases spiked in summer.

[avebauerle]

In Florida, send good thoughts please😓

[MelliaBoomBot]

23.42 "Don't know why I bothered putting that in really..." LOL love his mirth amidst such a grim time sometimes.

[dobishs]

I know this can sound bad. But Would it be better to get infected now before the winter rather than during the winter?

[kevintalbotrc]

only 1400 people have died from it in uk, everyone else already had life threatening illnesses. you can see the data yourself on the nhs website.

[RepentfollowJesus]

Love Dr John. He is so welcoming and kind and knowledgeable.

[tarquinftangftangolebiscui]

Thanks Doc, you're doing a great job.

[pcookify]

If you've been to Florida you'd realize that what the Governor is doing doesn't really matter. People don't care and almost no one wears a mask indoors or outdoors.

[ACL]

Could you please talk about air purifiers for the home? Will they help stop spread within families, and perhaps within apartment buildings too?

[robbiegrant]

Dr. Campbell, is there some sort of of accomadation in the figures of "active cases" for the fact that the testing is not 100% accurate? And what % of cases need hospitalisation?