The Big Picture - Demography: Advantage India

In many ways, India’s demographics are the envy of the world. As populations in countries such as China, US, and Japan is getting older, India’s population is getting younger. Since 2018, India’s working-age population has grown larger than the dependent population — children aged 14 or below as well as people above 65 years of age. This bulge in the working-age population is going to last till 2055, or 37 years from its beginning. India’s working-age population is now increasing because of rapidly declining birth and death rates. India’s age dependency ratio, the ratio of dependents to the working-age population, is expected to only start rising in 2040, as per UN estimates. This presents a golden opportunity for economic growth. It is, however, important to note that this change in population structure alone cannot push growth. There are many other factors. On this edition of the big picture we analyse How to reap India’s demographic dividend.


Guests:
Banuchandar Nagarajan, Former Consultant, World Bank, Washington DC
Abhinav Prakash, Assistant Professor, University of Delhi
Alok Vajpeyi, Joint Director, Population Foundation of India

Anchor: Frank Rausan Pereira

[aditikaushik]

Demography: Advantage India
Introduction
* In many ways India’s demographics are the envy of the world
* Populations in China, US & Japan getting older, India’s population is getting younger
* Since 2018, India’s working population has grown larger than the dependent population children below 14, ppl aged above 65 yrs of age
* Working population lasts till 2055
* Working age population increasing due to rapidly declining birth & death rates
* Age Dependency Ratio(dependent’s to working age population) expected to rise in 2040 as per UN estimates
* Set to take China as the most populous country in the next 8 yrs

Reaping the benefits
* Working population- increased output
* Taxes increasing- goods, services, jobs
* Aggregate demand increases
* Saving increasing- higher investment

Addressing the barriers
* Inequalities-Witnessing demogr dividend-Kerala, TN, Opening up-Andhra, Delhi, yet to open-Bihar, UP
* Migration- poorer to richer states,
* A few states start to age in 2030s
* Employment question- era of robotics & 4th industrial revolution
* Educational imbalance

Stepping stones
* Institutional factor- Framing right policies- Health-(family planning services), education- access expansion, moving from opportunity model to basic model, skilling(4th ID, Robotics)
* Social factor-building human capital, ABS, pensions for unorganised, KSN, scholarships, social security(ageing pop), enhancing age at marriage(to dec fertility rate), women empowerment & education, adolescent population
* Economic factor-increase manufacturing base, infrastructure- proper urban infra, female labour force participation

Conclusion
What we spoke of as ‘Population burden’ in the 1990s became ‘demographic dividend’ in no time.
A Comprehensive approach needs to be adopted with a focus on women education & employment, adolescent children & old age population. Also emphasising on areas such as skilling, education expansion, urban planning & nutrition will lead us to really reap the benefits & sit on the sweet spot for long

[shashiketan]

*63. DEMOGRAPHY: ADVANTAGE INDIA*
Demographic dividend: The economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age share of the population.
- This bulge in the working-age population is going to last till 2055, or 37 years from its beginning, 2018.
- No of working population increases - the output goes up if jobs are provided.
- Taxes increase with govt - more investment.
- Aggregate demand goes up - buying cars, consumer durables.
- Saves money & invest money

Challenges to reap the benefits:
- Should be able to utilise - health, education, skilled, opportunities available.
- role of institutions in framing right polices.
- Regional Disparity: Kerala is already there, AP, Delhi - opening up & Bihar, UP yet to reach demographic peak.
- Inequality: Dependence on social background, pockets of economic growth in the same cities.
- Technical divide: It would be difficult to transition from agriculture to technology rather than mfg.
- Urban infrastructure: not able to handle migration. (Slums in Delhi -> diseases -> lowers productivity)
- Female labour force participation: decreased from 27.5% to 19% while in China its 63%

Government Schemes:
- Health: Ayushman Bharat, goal of eradicating TB, reduction in Communicable & non communicable diseases.
- Pension Scheme for Organised.
- PM KISAN Samman Nidhi
- National population policy.
- Bet Bachao Beti Padhao - Low Sex ratio

Way to go:
- Using Technology: its opening up many new sectors for jobs, to enhance productivity in agri, services & mfg. sector.
- Skill development: reeducation & reskilling - should be public funded.
- Invest in health, education, nutrition, girl's education, family planning services.
- Short term: Policing, teachers, Medium term focus on mfg & long term look into technical aspect & its disruption.
- Increasing the access to education
Economic Survey focuses on Consolidation of schools as we already hit the 0-19 yrs peak on demography.
China focused on basic education & then moved them to production process.
- Population Control through family planning & tackling unmet need of contraception.
Social determinants like - son at preference need to change.
- Services to elderly: Increase the retirement age.

We are looking into an era where educated, healthy will take advantage. An equitable, inclusive social & economic growth is what we must aim for while we plan to reap the benefits of demography.

[rumisarkar]

Introduction: demographic dividend means a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing population in the workforce relative to the number of dependents
Positive side:- 1) India's working age is on the rise, it will rise further in future
2) production is going to rise, government will have more money .it will increase savings
3)we have more younger population than other south east Asian countries
Practical problems:-1)
We have huge younger population but there is huge social, economic and political inequality
2)there is regional differences in demographic dividend for example keral and Tamilnadu are witnessing this Andhra Pradesh and Delhi is opening on this concept but in Bihar, up it is yet to open also there is a huge problem of migration
3)we are on the verge of 4 th industrial development so the population should be technologically advanced but there is a huge lack of skill
Steps taken 1) many projects on increasing human resources
2) more focus should be on eradication of social, economic and political inequality we have to ensure that our girl child should be in the working population and as well as the care for older people
3) more ITI should be opened
Secondary education should be enhanced
Conclusion ; demographic dividend is our human resource it's should not be burden if we can take all masses with ourselves to make it progressive

[alokpandey]

India enters demographic dividend phase which will continue till 2055.
A golden opportunity for economic growth..
How to reap India demographic dividend ?
Benefits-
Raised productivity
Tax increase
Consumption based demand
Saving and investment
Only when-
1.Healthy educated skilled
2.Role of the institution to frame policies.
3. Tackle inequality.
Other factors-
1. State difference Kerala vs Andhra Pradesh vs bihar
Steps taken-
1. Increase productivity through social intervention
2. Technology based economy exploration .
3. Skill India, Ayushman Bharat, scholarship, Kisan Samman yojna.
Barriers -
1. Increasing automation
2. Inequality in access to quality education.
3. Transition bw sectors will be difficult
4. Low skilled workforce
Should we go for China model ?
Basic education + provide skills
..India went for opposite ( focused more on higher education than skill )
What more should be done -
1. Heavily invest employment generation, education, health, opportunities.
2. Govt has to focus on family planning services.
Is any policy action plan needed to control population ?
1. Not punitive
2. Utilise human resource
Availability vs employability of laborforce ?
1. Change manufacturing base..enter industrial revolution.
2. Inequality has to be dealt.
Are we prepared as we overtake china in population?
1. Adopt comprehensive approach. Economics- social- education.
2. Delay age at marriage.
Reforms in Healthcare and eduction ?
1. Urban infrastructure revamping
2. Gender aspect - FLFP, women empowerment.
3. Family planning.
4. Consolidation of schools.
5. Access- Available- Affordable education
Best way forward -
1 Educational reforms
2.Focus on adolescent population.
3 Contraceptives.
4 Take care of elderly
Missed out points-
New educational policy.
Skill India mission .
Economic survey.
Develop entrepreneurial ability.

[Mommy_and_Shaurya]

6:29 how can a barber in bihar give hair cut to somebody in boston ???:O

[prathapreddy]

Middle person highlights very good points
Overall discussion very good tnq

[AshisSahu]

@RajyaSabhaTV there is a constant drum beating noise in the background. Kindly see into the audio issue

[anuratnraghuvanshi]

Abhinav prakash is making most relevant point....otherwise everyone is talking of dem9graphic any amount of commonsense will tell you that eith huge burgeoning populatoon we are headed towards disaster....a perpetual low income in india willl not even allow to reach middle inc9me levels like that of china....

[charnjeevbansal]

All debate is good for theoretical purposes but many points are beyond practical implementation.

[luckySingh-yhkt]

Nothing specific about the debate.. Points are quiet vague

[manjunathanramakrishnan]

On the whole, we can forget our environment for the next 30yrs.

[forefatherofmankind]

Bihar barber giving haircut to Boston men coz lalu's haircut will be getting GI TAG by 2020

[akshit]

Seems like Nagarajan fellow had been taking some serious strong stuff personally recommended by Nagaraj himself.

[sherryj]

Aadha demograhic dividened to UPSC ki bhent Chad jata h ....:)

[abhishekbajpai]

Alok Vakpeyi speaking on the measures to control population, not relevant to the discussion.

[dhanraj]

Nothing substantial were said about the topic .
Clear answers are not given by panelist to the asked questions.

[YashwantSingh]

Nobody mentioned about the new Cabinet committee on skill development and employment, the importance of MSME, importance of data efficiency, the unorganized sector revamping.

[Enlightenwithshubham]

Abhinav prakash talk about ground reality
To reap the benefits of demographic dividend first we must work on inequality that exist in country and inequality is going to increase in near future according to World Bank.
We must heavily invest in education, skill development of our people and infrastructure spacially in rural areas which needs.
We must decentralization of development and wealth so that villege and small towns could also benefit from modern world class facility.
We must take care of our elders while making policy bcoz they are not human capital and capitalism don't like those who are not worthy for it.

[tstanmoysamanta]

Demography Bomb not Demography Advantage, we should be concerned about this population should not glorify it.

[Neetivenam]

Frankly
Industrial revolution based on mass production and employment is over
Now it's age of 4 th Industrial revolution where automation and AI call the shots
This will create employment issue
Rather than any dividend we have a challenge
We have to develop affordable solutions to mprove Education, health etc
Also India must think of how to increase our diaspora footprint
Especially in nations like Western Europe which face greying of population