Russia is running out of soldiers

Russia will have a manpower shortage unless Putin orders another wave of mobilization. In this video I look at some of the numbers and discuss what happened to the soldiers that Russia mobilized in the fall.

0:00 Intro
0:15 Phase 1
1:08 Phase 2
2:34 How long will 300,000 soldiers last?
2:56 Problem with numbers
3:32 Numbers from Ukraine
5:35 Numbers from Mediazona
7:16 Comparison to Afghanistan
8:04 Wounded and prisoners
8:43 Estimating casualties
9:38 Phase 3
10:54 Ukrainian casualties

[spencethegreat]

Did not age well. Just shows you can’t trust these channels that are very Ukraine biased for proper information.

[bingoE]

ukraine mobilize 20k-30k ppl every month and that is why they have enough ppl in units and even form new brigades.

[capitalistdingo]

Someone on another channel mentioned something about Russia’s materiel that I think also applies to it’s personnel: Nations don’t usually lose wars because they suddenly “run out” of something. They become “supply constrained” so they can’t get enough ammo, food or troops to the front at a rate needed to keep advancing or even defend what they have taken. They never run out completely in an absolute sense, but they are still undone by shortages.

It’s all very well to count up tanks and shells that you could potentially repair or restore and people you can mobilize but training people (even by mobik standards) equipping them and getting those tanks ready to go takes a lot of money, manpower and time. Russia has been squandering all those things since this started.

[mxam]

Well this aged well 😂😂😂 it really goes to show how biased and weak YouTubers spouting this type of msm theme are - after a couple years you look back and see just how ridiculous their output is

[you-to-beornot-to-be]

here we have another miliatry analyst 🤣🤣🤣

[DarkestVampire]

Konstantin from Inside Russia (Ironic name since he's now in Usbekistan) has said that among his other russian refugee friends who fled the war, a lot of their relatives and friends are still being mobiilized. The mobilization didn't end, it seems to keep going, but silently so that the men and women aren't too worried about it.

[Synaptic_gap]

Interesting way of analyzing the numbers but from a tactical or strategic standpoint a lot has been left out of the equation. What must be factored in is the types of losses, in other words, what percentage of the officer/NCO corps has been lost? It is very difficult to replace these types of losses, especially in terms of experience. Overall, training of these mobilized troops has been reported to be poor to non-existent so it's like a negative force multiplier. Further mobilizations will only become successively less productive as the pool of those with military experience, or those in the younger age brackets is exhusted. Training aside, there is a significant difference in battlefield performance, physical stamina and endurance between the 18-28 year olds, and those above that group. These factors would apply across the board however, when it comes to the more technical military specialities, it will be near impossible to substitute any of the newly mobilized for any job that requires much more than a few months training, and in the modern military, these technical positions represent a disproportionate percentage of what could be called "lethality" or factors that are considered "force multipliers".

[chrisjon]

Another way to estimate the number of dead/kia would be to use the Oryx numbers of total vechicle losses in ukraine since the beginning of the war, currently Russia have lost 10k pieces of equipment, you dont loose that much without having a big number of dead/wounded soldiers.

[q-tuber]

Sign of manpower shortage: trained artillery personnel being handed rifles and ordered to serve as infantry

[BlacktulipSF]

more important, russia cant resupply ammunition, vehicles heavy arms and weapon systems anymore while Ukraine is being resupplied continuously by Europe and US. Endex for the orcs.

[thrakiamaria]

I have to mention that for long distances Ukrainian don’t count the ru losses. I have been watching the ru casualties list and when hit a big number of ru soldiers deep in line they don’t even add it. They count what they achieve and what they see with their drones in the daily report.

[stephenrickstrew]

Russia has also run out of class .. but that was 100 years ago ..and they are still out and badly need to re-up

[thomashjensen]

Hi Anders. Great video, as always. A question that you may touch upon at some time: How is the morale of the two sides? We have heard much about the Russians having an absolutely dismal morale, but how do you see this? I have read many sources, but I often wonder if those sources are 100% objective. Therefore, I would really value your opinion.

[jack_batterson]

It is not a given that the Russians know the true number of casualties.
Casualty collection and tracking is a complex process.

[Pakicetus_]

I love western propaganda, it's so funny 😂

[justinswanton]

This didn't age well. 420, 000 volunteers in 2023 and the army is now at 1, 5 million, double its prewar strength.

[bevsman]

You can't believe anything Russia says about casualties or anything else for that matter.

[paulodantas]

How many mobilizations have Ukraine did? Does Ukraine have shortage of personnel also?

[brettblyth]

And they've only got shovels, incredible😂

[MattPerdeck]

Could it be that Russia continued to "mobilize" (aka force against their will) men into the army after the initial announced mobilization? As in, they said they'd mobilize 300, 000, but they actually mobilized say 500, 000? This to get more manpower while limiting unrest in Russia itself.