Why Smart People Make Stupid Decisions (And How to Avoid This)

Stay open-minded to the possibility that there is a lot more information that you don’t know yet.

After all, the wisest person in a room listens more than the others because they know there’s still more knowledge to learn.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 - Intro
0:55 - Smart people and Chimpanzees
2:42 - Confirmation Bias: “I’m Right Because I Believe I Am.”
5:00 - Disprove Yourself
6:22 - Overconfidence Kills

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🔗 ADDITIONAL LINKS & RESOURCES

Tetlock, P.E, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know? Princeton University Press. 2005.

H.A. Slagter et al., “Mental training affects distribution of limited brain resources”(2007) PLoS Biology, 5(6): e138.

👨💻 LET'S CONNECT

[TheArtofImprovement]

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Thank you!

- Adam

⏱ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 - Intro
0:55 - Smart people and Chimpanzees
2:42 - Confirmation Bias: “I’m Right Because I Believe I Am.”
5:00 - Disprove Yourself
6:22 - Overconfidence Kills

[ragequitGO]

If you’re reading this, I hope y’all have a good day, stay safe and productive :)

[SY-spuo]

“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”

[kathleensmith]

Intelligence does not make you have common sense.

[TENNSUMITSUMA]

The surgeon example is a bad one! There's no 'bias' that made people not think the surgeon could be a woman! It's the fact that, like most garbage collectors, fire fighters and all (that i've seen) construction workers, most surgeons are male! So to claim any kind of 'bias', on something that's real world fact, not theory, makes no sense! You see 999, 999 of one thing, it's not a bias to expect the 1, 000, 000th thing to be the same!
How many times, in the real world, have you seen male child daycare providers vs female?! Exactly! For all that want to play dumb: i'm sure there's some 7ft, 500lbs, 10 percent body fat dude, with a scar over one eye, sagat style, making him blind, that's also a child daycare provider... >_<

[SimpleLifeSG]

We must always be flexible and open to new thing. Don't turn down the idea before really understanding it.

[waelfaraj]

Intuition, insight that comes after peaceful contemplating, getting counsel from other smart people and constructive discussion help a lot ...

There is mystery and ambiguity until we get some clarity in somethings .This is why, there is searching and finding truths, researching and development, discovering, learning and relearning as our scope of awareness expands infinitely.  The more awareness enlarges, the more humans rediscover in different areas ...
This is why evolution, improvement and development if ensued and realized may be unlimited ...

[pyschologygeek]

When you make a stupid mistake, it's because of specific circumstances, and/or because someone else is fundamentally incompetent. ... You'll recognize some of them—being in a rush, for example—and learning about the others will help you avoid more stupid mistakes.

[therock]

Too Openmindedness can lead to be gullible and believe whatever comes your way. Be balance. Know your value but also make decision on a case by case basis for the difficult and not so clear cut situations.

[randominsights]

Now we can understand how the “experts” have bungled handling Covid

[ScreaminMime]

Spending time watching this bloviated channel - poor decision.

[jackdan]

I love your videos!!!
I think they're underrated and more people should watch them at least for the sake of curiosity.
Some parts of this video say that the more your intelligence, the more your self confidence and sometimes over-confidence (please correct me if I'm wrong). However I think also that the more your intelligence, the more your self-awareness hence (theoretically) the more your self-criticism and, in turn, we might see a decrease in over-confidence.
What about this point? I'd like to know your opinion (also anyone's who reads to this comment), have a good day!!

[shyanncornwall]

Wait I am confused, i got the question right instantly without a second thought what exactly does that mean?

[whiteflowercrownmusic]

This explains how I believed for so long in the religion my parents raised me in

[mikeymah]

I was struggling to understand how it could be viewed any other way . Surgeons can be women, like duh . Do people actually get this question wrong ?

[CaptainRumi]

I remember the surgeon puzzle from earlier, and I remember solving it correctly. But now I couldn't recollect the right answer and I wanted to continue watching the video so I concluded that the surgeon was the biological father who knew about his son and the one who died was a stepfather raising the son as his own...
And now comes the funny part:
I still wasn't convinced this is the real answer and then I was thinking the puzzle would be harder if the mother would have died in the accident and a surgeon would say the same. Then I was thinking there aren't many female surgeons... I don't know why I was assuming in both case that the dead parent and the surgeon are same gender.

[checkmate]

Yay I was able to predict who the surgeon was to the boy! :)

[sponyo]

The example of confirmation bias here seems more like a framing effect: the mentioning of “father” leads to a bias in favor of the surgeon being a father too.

[justinwelch]

Everyone feels called out on that one🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕🤕

[mjg]

Thanks for the riddle from The Cosby Show. 😆