Recession in 3 months, brace for mass layoffs warns economist; Banking crisis explained

Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder of The Macro Compass, explains the root causes of the current banking crisis, and predicts a recession in the U.S. to officially hit in three to four months.

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*This video is not financial advise. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.

0:00 - Intro
0:30 - When are we getting a recession?
2:00 - Banking crisis explained
12:00 - Global credit impulse
13:30 - Bank runs
15:33 - Labor market
21:40 - Consumer sentiment index
28:00 - Stock market crash
31:30 - Gold, Bitcoin
35:00 - Asset allocation
36:40 - Global demographic trends

#recession #economy #investing

[TheDavidLinReport]

This is going to be one wild summer, and not in the good sense. Don't miss a single daily update on the #economy and #markets, subscribe now! Follow Alfonso's excellent newsletter: TheMacroCompass.com/subscribe

[edwinthomas]

Alf is always worth listening to. He makes macro easy to understand.

[Samantha-yspp]

Finally someone that speaks the truth and speaks it clear. No beating around the bushes. Thanks Alfonso!

[rannyorton]

According to certain economists, it's possible that the U.S. and certain parts of Europe might experience a recession at some point in 2023. Although a global recession, which is characterized by a decline in annual global per capita income, is relatively uncommon due to the faster growth rates of emerging markets like China, in comparison to developed economies. I have pulled out more than 340k from my bank. After all, the FDIC covers only up to 250, 000, and the implosion could have bad effect. Looking to invest into the stock market now. Does anyone know how I could go about it?

[deltabravo]

Love how fast the channel is growing! Wish nothing but the best for David!

[elchopera]

I could be listening all day to David and Alf. Great interview, incredibly insightful. Thanks!!!

[syzygysyzygy]

I have too many YouTube subscriptions.
But I can't get enough of this one.
Thanks for all your work!

[BaadMotorFinger]

Being a sub contractor in the residential home sector for 25 years, I have to agree with this guy. Every builder I know in southwestern Ontario is laying off labourers and not selling many houses. This stuff has a lag effect and I think it's just starting to boomerang back around now in the real estate market.

[ardeand]

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was the 16th largest bank in the US, and it wasn't subject to the most strict controls. How many banks actually are subject to those controls, besides the big four? Any bank could suffer a run and fail, and if that happens to a community level or even state level bank it probably won't upset the national economy or ecosystem of banks, but any multi-state bank should be more closely watched.

[johnlennon]

Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over.

[louisairvin]

The negative impact of SVB and SI debacles has been reflected in the regional bank ETF (KRE) which has witnessed a decline of over 20%. This event has triggered contagion effects, dragging the entire market lower. However, historically speaking, a localized and narrow contagion of this nature presents an opportune time to invest in strong, financially stable companies with substantial cash reserves on their balance sheets.

[barneysmom]

Love it when u interview Alfonso. U 2 seem to get along so well!

[tagsoneveryting]

Alf is one of my favorite commenters on macro economics. Glad to see him on.

[johnmorelli]

David, love your new show. Hopefully this will also be available as a podcast for those of us who are very active and want to hear this 'on the go'. Good luck with the new show!

[Kektamusprime]

Loving the new show man, congrats going out on your own

[ppatos]

Awesome to see you have your own show David!

[alanleung]

The construction hiring boom is actually quite normal for late cycle, it shows a scramble to get all the projects completed before the collapse in order to lower the chances of buyers backing out of the contracts and the developers holding the bags.

[HAMBURGER-sl]

Wow...thanks...Great interview....Very informative. Alfonso is fantastic. I have to watch this video again..and analyze lot of information here. Great video...keep rockin!

[ricoroometoo]

Congratulations on the new show David, great guest, just subscribed .

[haydeeaguirre]

DAVID!! Extremely informative segment . ALFONSO is one of the best economists, always providing great content . ❤