The Russian Invasion & The Stock Market

Russia & Ukraine tensions are running high. What is going on in Russia & what does it mean for Oil, your portfolio, and the markets? Let's explain!

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Timestamps:
0:00 - Start Here
0:16 - Russia-Ukraine Summarized
2:10 - Russia & Commodities
4:35 - What does this mean for you?
6:15 - Effects on Investments
7:44 - Oil to $100?

Russia & Ukraine tensions are running hot. Ukraine wants to join NATO and Russia does not want the NATO border to get closer to Russia.

Due do these opposing views, Russia not wanting Ukraine to join NATO and expand NATO’s reach, and Ukraine’s willingness to join NATO - what we have ended up with is the deployment of 130,000 Russian troops all along the Ukraine Russian Border.

According to the Wall Street Journal,

“Russia plays an outsize role in global commodity markets. It exports about 5 million barrels a day of crude, roughly 12% of global trade, and around 2.5 million barrels a day of petroleum products, about 10% of global trade, according to investment bank Cowen. About 60% of Russia’s oil exports go to Europe, and another 30% go to China.”

Fears of a Russian attack have already caused gas prices across the U.S. to climb to its highest level in eight years. If war does indeed happen, we could say many commodities such as oil and gas increase in price, thus also increasing the inflation rate.

If this were to happen, this could have a great impact on our stock market as well.

The Fed may have to alter their timetable of raising interest rates and tapering bond purchases. Some analysts believe that the Fed may slowdown its timeline of raising interest rates if the growing risk of war does indeed make future financial outlooks too cloudy to predict.

IF there was a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia, this would be classified as a geopolitical event. These events are almost never good for the market in the short term, but could present buying opportunities.

CFRA analyzed 24 geopolitical events since World War II and found that the S&P 500 fell on average of 5.5% from peak to trough in the aftermath of those events.

The market took an average of 24 days from the start of the event to reach a bottom, but it recouped those losses in an average of 28 days later. The CFRA strategiest states,”History reminds investors that surprise military and terrorist activities have traditionally been short-lived and represented an attractive buying opportunity”.

75% of the time, 12 months later, the market returns higher. Which is a good sign - now keep in mind I am not trying to downplay the threat of war, but I am just showing you what happens historically.

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PS: I am not a Financial Advisor, any investment commentary are my opinions only. Some of the links in this description are affiliate links that I do receive a commission for.

[hunterthemadman]

A better video than most by geopolitical experts. You very effectively summarize information and create a clear straightforward breakdown.

[jackreign]

My boy Humphreys at 500k. Let get this channel to 1 million. One of my favorite channels of all time . You deserve the best

[keesh]

This was a really good one, thanks Humphrey

[HenrikoMagnifico]

This made me relax at least a little, thank you

[RexFinance]

Best breakdown I've seen! Thanks, Humphrey!

[kylermak]

Thank you humphrey, the market has been getting confusing lately

[ilikegaia]

Fantastic upload today, the editing was super and the images gave good context. I would definitely like more macroeconomics videos from you!

[miguellondono]

Hey Humphrey. Thank you for such a great video. Hope you succeed in this YouTube channel. I always recommend people to watch your channel!

[robinmathew]

I haven’t seen the video, but it’s just sad how many people are suffering or going to be suffering and the rest of the world is worried about their stocks and shares .

[lawrencer]

Fabulous video.
Thank you very much 🥳🥳🥳🥂👍

[bitsandbobs]

This was helpful content! thanks for the video

[jengonzalez]

Sad fact is, its pretty obvious we are headed for hyperinflation. I think stores better have tight security because when people can't afford to feed their families, things might get ugly.

[balusakthi]

I like your way of report and presentation.

[frankkozarich]

This video was very informative, so keep them coming.

[adamcarman]

great video! thank you for the information

[stevenmcdaniel]

So let’s say the market takes a good dip because of this conflict. In your opinion, would it be smarter to buy the growth and dividend stocks on discount (Long Term for retirement) or just buy the VOO, SCHD, VTI’s at a discounted prices?

[EdwinE]

I fkn love this channel for his transparency and honesty. Thanks for that

[garuda]

You should be a news anchor man . Good job

[coding-gemini]

Well explained, thanks. What other commodities might be affected other than oil and wheat because of this conflict ?

[DenisGrigorov]

Good analysis Humphrey. Just curious, what kind of finances background do you have?