Chaos, Costs, and Coercion: Ukraine's Three-Pronged Strategy in Kursk

With more time passing, we now have a better understanding of what Ukraine's strategic goals are for its Kursk offensive. This video examines three different aims, all geared toward weakening Russia's hand in the war: gaining a coercive military advantage, sowing political chaos, and imposing long-run costs. We will examine the effectiveness of each strategy so far and whether Ukraine can continue the pressure.

0:00 Strategy and the Kursk Offensive
1:24 Shifting the Military Balance
8:21 Politically Damaging Russia
14:44 Imposing Costs on Russia

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

By IAEA Imagebank:

By Bundesarchiv:

[Prometheus-Unbound]

Timewise the offensive has also depopulated one of the most significant agricultural areas of Russia just before the harvest and isn't Russia already experiencing food price inflation ....

[douglassun]

It just occurred to me that the medieval tactic of chevauchee may be relevant here. The strategic goal was not to control territory, but to send a message to the inhabitants: "Your King (or in this case, the Tsar) cannot protect you. You owe him no loyalty." You start to work loose the connective tissue of the enemy kingdom, the people's connection to the ruler. The fact that the Ukrainians are digging in suggests to me that things are going better than expected and they see a chance to give a good, hard yank rather than a wiggle.

[pieterfaes]

Not that long ago, there were jokes about Russian claims of creating a buffer zone in Ukraine.
I didn't expect the punchline to actually happen.

[mryan]

Great video. What the Ukrainians are doing reminds me of something I learned a long time ago while in the military. At it's very base, the goal is to create dilemmas, not problems, for your adversary. This is because problems have only one solution, while dilemmas have two or more solutions, which are all equally bad. It's nice to see that the Ukraine military is doing this, and doing it very well.

[jackbarnhill]

When you’re playing the enemies game and losing, stop playing. War is organized chaos. He who organizes the chaos best wins. So, when things aren’t going your way, if I may quote the Joker in The Dark Knight, “…you have to introduce a little chaos.”

[AverageFornaxEnjoyer]

Russia complaining about Ukraine using American weapons, meanwhile Russia is using North Korean weapons.

[Chuck_Hooks]

Putin has the distinction of being the first Russian leader to allow a comedian's forces to cross the Russian border.

[radarspotter]

It's not an "invasion" of Russian, it's a "counter-invasion". Or "Ordinary Military Operation in Kursk" if you prefer.

[zidane]

I watch a handful of videos daily since Ukraine's offensive in Kursk but man, none of them even come close to the amount of significant details put in just one of your videos. New subscriber here

[DukeOfCringe]

I have never been happier to hear someone bring up introductory logic.

[Kratatch]

Not talking about it was not a mistake, the Russians thought the Ukrainians just did a raid and would leave so they where even slower to react.

[larzkruber]

No matter the outcome
If this is all over...
The russian will tell that there was never a war
But will count every war the U.S. was in

[krakhedd]

"Where's Prigozhin?"

Just fondly remembering games from last year

[jimtalbott]

I’d not thought much about the rails in Kursk, but reducing them to 1 main line does make for a constricted supply system, at least for the Russians. They STILL haven’t containerized, and don’t seem able to. So it’s not as if trucks are a really excellent alternative.
One thing to remember about the Kerch bridge and supplies to Crimea: prior to the bridge, all supplies were able to be brought in by a ferry system. It was more expensive and less secure, but it did the job. So effectively, there are two bridges that have to be destroyed.

[nicklaforge]

I was hoping for lines on maps today

Did not disappoint

[jorgeluiscapiello]

The Tsar has no clothes, Slava from Caracas, Venezuela 🇺🇦🇻🇪

[kurtwicklund]

This is a very rare video as I think William missed the true cost increase for Russia.

The war began with Russia attacking everywhere including out of Belarus. They pulled back early. Since then the war has been fought entirely on Ukrainian land. Russia has had to deploy all its combat capable units inside Ukraine. This leaves Russia's immense border covered by contract soldiers, who are almost useless in modern combat.

Ukraine took a brigade or a few call it 10, 000 very good troops. These carved out the salient everyone is discussing. Here is where my thinking diverges. Ukraine does not have to keep pouring troops into this pocket. They can punch a different hole into Russia 100 miles away. They can do this so long as Russia guards the border with conscripts and "police".

Russia must either send their unwilling conscripts to war and stiffen the entire border with their combat ready formations. They have to put 100, 000 of their best troops on defense because 10, 000 Ukrainians might mass at any given point.

Both the material cost goes up. The political cost goes up with every dead conscript. Russia's offensive power inside Ukraine goes down. Russia has a new refugee cost.

Bottom line Ukraine accepts doubling of the active combat line of contact is in their favor.

[TheSubpremeState]

This channel is rising up the ranks of best Ukraine updates channel.

[bat]

From a political standpoint, now would be a very good time to drop the Kerch bridge. Especially the rail portion. Also, the AFU does not need to capture and hold the Kursk nuke plant.... just get it in range of weapons that could seriously threaten it. Force a "hot" shutdown. Thereby removing its power from the grid (a very bad thing for Putin).

[Cowdingle]

William Spaniel AND Perun have both uploaded in the last hour.

Something's got to be up, we aren't allowed to have things this good 🤔