Why Russia's Nuclear Weapons Failed to Deter Ukraine's Invasion

Russia has the world's biggest stockpile of nuclear weapons. Yet Ukraine ignored them and went straight into Russia to begin the Kursk offensive. Where did Russia's nuclear deterrence go wrong? It turns out, this is not a surprise. It is exactly how nuclear deterrence works. Kursk is not Moscow, and that is a problem for the Kremlin right now.

0:00 How Could a Nuclear Power Be Invaded?
1:42 Russia's Nuclear Stockpile
5:44 Russia's Political Problems with Nuclear Weapons
9:37 A History of Deterrence Failure
14:11 Coercion in Kursk
16:42 Nuclear Limits in Russia

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[Gametheory]

For the segment at 9:35: my goal for this is not to make a blanket claim that nuclear weapons have never affected any calculations at the periphery, just that the historical record is not as good as it may seem. I struggled writing that section, trying to weigh completeness versus not going down a history rabbit hole and sidetracking the main point of the video. Hope that is clear. This is not how I would go about addressing the question if this were a true research setting!

[dsdy]

8:34 Ukraine: *invades Russia*
Russia: "Ukraine, there's a 50/50 chance you're gonna kill yourself!"
Ukraine: "Those are the best odds I've had in years."

[pgr]

There's a joke: Putin asks Stalin what he would do about this invasion. Stalin draws on his WW2 experience and says: "Get lots of American equipment aid and ammunition, give it to the Ukrainian soldiers as the vanguard troops and you'll be fine." Putin nods at the sage advice and then says yes that happened, but what do I do about it?

[sebastianfries]

Pretty much every dispute between nuclear powers is just an increasingly high stakes game of “no balls”

[zeromodulus]

It’s probably one of the stupidest military strategies. Saying “I have nukes so I’m gonna invade your country and hope you’ll be too afraid to defend yourself.”

[davidgab]

The thing with nuclear weapons is that you can't win, you can only make sure that everyone loses.

[casbot]

There's also the issue that with bloodthirsty nuclear threats being made every month or so, any future warnings by Russia won't be taken as seriously as would otherwise be expected.

[garciahahn]

I appreciate that you don't add music to your videos, it gives it the seriousness they deserve and make it less sensationalist.

[Spearomen]

“don’t use a nuke when you can solve the problem without it. you cannot un-nuke anything, and you will always have the option. when it comes to nukes, it’s never too late.”

[chrissmart]

you can only rattle that sabre so many times, until people turn around and say, "oh just fuck off!"

[thunderbug]

If someone threatening nukes is enough to make you surrender well you already lost, if the threats are real, you already lost, if the threats aren’t real you have a chance. It’s basically impossible not to call the bluff.

[tom_forsyth]

10:21 - you didn't mention the key point - the invasion of the Falklands by the Argentinians did not prompt a nuclear response, and nor did the threat of a nuclear response deter the Argentinians. Oddly, what DID have an effect was the Brits demonstrating that they could hit Buenos Aires with conventional weapons (launched by the Vulcan bombers), causing the Argentinians to withdraw forces from the Falklands and focus on home defense. But the fact that there was almost certainly a nuclear-armed submarine within trivial range of the city - no effect at all!

[parrotv]

Russia nuking its own territory in name of defense sounds crazy, but when you consider that its Russia we are talking about...

[wardakawababa]

Simple answer: Ukraine is already under an existential threat. There's nothing further Russia can escalate to that can make it worse for Ukraine.

[tunneloflight]

He didn't learn the lesson we all did decades ago about winning a nuclear war. "The only way to win is to never play the game."

[badpiggies]

He’s threatened that so many times, that nuclear threats in general are now meaningless.

[Deus]

Using nuclear weapons is a one way trip. No countries in this world would want to have anything to do Russia after they use it.

[ZearthGJL]

When you make so many red lines and dont enforce them, you end up in a "Cry Wolf" situation where no one will believe you.

[nicklindberg]

What're the odds that at least a few of those nukes have been stripped for vodka money?

[hamletodua]

When talking about Bucha, please remember that there are numerous Ukrainian cities levelled or damaged by russians with their inhabitants murdered or injured. Mariupol, Kharkiv, Severodonetsk, Vuhledar, Avdiivka - all these cities are historically russian speaking and were once loyal to russia.