The Hardliner's Dilemma: The Hidden Threat to Putin's Regime

Putin is in a tight position if Russia's mobilization plan goes poorly. One might think that moderates within his administration are most likely to initiate a coup, as they would prefer to get out of the situation. That may be true, but the hardliners pose a threat for a different reason. This video explains the dilemma that the hardliners may soon find themselves in, and how the tension leads to deeper strategic problems.

0:00 Hardliners vs Moderates: Who's the Threat?
1:22 Issues with the Russian Mobilization
5:59 Putin's Post-Failure Options
8:36 Meta Coup
10:14 Moderate Opportunists

By Ramy Raoof:

By Bundesarchiv:

By Aleksander Kaasik:

By Aleksander Kaasik:

[Trelmayas]

The discussion on the meta coup reminded me of an onion headline from 10 years ago, "Putin Learns Putin Behind Plot To Assassinate Putin". We truly live in the silliest timeline.

[TrojanHell]

I think Putin is the biggest threat to Putin at this point...

[oohhboy-funhouse]

We should all recognise Putin's best defence against a coup is a longer table.

[mikeburkett]

Im glad you posted this video, because I watched the Chinese "Romance of the Three Kindgoms" saga and it explains a lot about political influence of people who have the monarchs ear, but one thing I never understood was how Cao Cao could be prevented from becoming Emperor by people in the court, because the show always framed him an unvetoable force in the court. I remember Sima Yi explaining that there were two types of officials, those that had power, and those that didnt, and it always perplexed me how that was possible being that Cao Cao was the only one who's decision ultimately mattered.... that was until I watched this.

[chrisbresler]

This is an excellent piece of work, very intelligently analysed and worded. I give you 10/10. Keep on with the good work you are doing - it is so needed, compared to most of the other shabby and badly written and translated videos that do the rounds.

[anon]

Wanted to add that the '91 coup is not necessarily the last in Moscow, one could make convincing arguments for the '93 crisis & siege of the parliament also being a coup

[Gametheory]

3:44 What's amazing here is that I did not sync the "cannon fodder" line with the visual! In fact, I wasn't even aware there were cannons in the B-roll until I was in the middle of narrating the section.

[nictamer]

The latest coup was in 1993, not 1991. It's important because that coup, by Yeltsin, resulted in Putin's dictatorship.

[leonardolongolippera]

I'm currently studying racional choice and game theory and it's just awesome to see you put into practice the concept of racional actors

[rayhughes]

Thank you for sharing your comprehensive insight into this topic. I certainly enjoyed this intelligent video against all the clickbait fake rubbish of many other channels.

[michaelwk]

The 300k mobilization isn't a force multiplier but a further burden and a disgrace to mother Russia

[heatrayzvideo]

It's like being in an abusive relationship when you fear the alternative being worse.

[Sigismundism]

Regarding the choice between the hardliners/military and moderates/FSB - it seems this choice has already been made, in favour of the latter. Putin has already put the blame hard on the MoD, replaced top brass, and generally criticized army performance. In addition, his own KGB background should generally make him more inclined to the FSB. This last point might seem trivial, but remember that most of Russias elite consists of Putin's pals and colleagues back from his KGB days. Great video btw!

[bubblesofthecoast]

The fact that some are saying that these recruits are already on the frontline speaks volumes. It wasn’t done properly, and now this mobilization will just worse the already terrible logistical situation

[BinkyTheGoddessDivine]

This is one of the best channels analyzing the war in Ukraine, and Russian politics. The level of research is absolutely outstanding. Well done!

[itsederrengifo]

Thank you for this analysis. I think Putin anticipated this and he fears the hardliners taking action because they have the muscle (the military), but also for that reason he has been diminishing the power of the military for years so I don't think that's gonna happen. What we can see already happening is he moving the strings to blame the military for the failures, so it seems he already chose his scapegoat, but maybe is a bit late for him. Right now he is all-in on this idea of the new soldiers keeping the frontlines long enough to declare them Russian territory and use nuclear weapons as a negotiation card to end the war, so he still can declare victory to his own people as a last attempt to keep his power. That's a risky bet IMO because as people start dying in bigger numbers, the risk of public uprising gets higher and that could be the motivation for moderates to take power... one thing is clear, without a clear and strong oposition (something Putin has been killing for years as well) power would only transfer to people with similar mindset but less capabilities to keep the country together, so this could end in some sort of civil war or at least a war between factions of the moderates to obtain the biggest piece of the cake and the favor of the oligarchs. I see dark times ahead for the Russian people.

[magnvss]

One of the biggest problems that Russia has is that it made public big standings and statements as if it was still the Soviet Union while being, in fact, a decaying country that has to resort to nuclear threats every step of the way due to the very understanding of its own inferiority.

Russia never found its way into an efficient economy because it feared more that the individual wealth of the Russian regions could trigger more separatism (as it once happened with the Soviet Union), so instead resorted to have a firm grasp of the countries’ administered and pre-designed moderate poverty on the regions and republics: like addicts dependent on their dealer, the regions had to need the central government to survive. Like Putin threatening to cut the gas to Europe so does Moscow controls the regions on how much money it gives for their sustenance, regardless of how rich the regions could be for what they actually produce. Plus some regions produce almost nothing, so those are de facto dependent.

But that policy also brought consequences and these are evident to the outside world. Russia is like the old guy on the falling-apart house who brags about his shotgun because he is afraid of his neighbors and the opportunistic thieves. He knows that sooner than later the collapse will come and doesn’t know how to survive so he resorts to taking what he can from someone he believed to be weaker in the hopes that it will prolong his changes and that other people won’t react, fearing his weapon. He feels cornered as it’s his last change and even when he makes a lot of threats, he is terrified in reality, as may be his neighbors may find out how decrepit and unable he is. Yet he still has his finger on the trigger.

Thus, this doesn’t mean that Russia, like the old guy, doesn’t decide to use his ultimate weapon as a last resort.

[antoinelambert]

My opinion is that mutual fear keeps everyone in check.
A coup would be great for the world, but a disaster for all those in power.
As of now all factions fear each other and an uprising, a coup means weakness and could fuel an uprising.

[colinbarnard]

Man, structural historical analysis to elevate Mr Spaniel to Gwynne Dyer status. Well done!

[Petrolhead]

Putin is the only person in the world who thinks that sending elderly alcoholics to the front is going to help him win .😂