The Nightmare Scenario in the Middle East

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important chokepoint. Roughly $2 billion in oil passes through there on a daily basis, plus a fifth of the world's liquified natural gas trade. However, Iran sits just north of it and could shut down shipping along the route at a moment's notice. This video examines why Iran might try such an action, how the world would respond, and whether a military solution is feasible.

0:00 The Strait of Hormuz: The World's Weak Point
2:08 Dangerous Geography
13:33 Faultlines
19:17 Why Not War?
24:06 Why a War May Begin Anyway
36:11 The Shutdown
42:55 The Damage
52:15 A Naval Intervention
58:33 Naval Warfare Is Not an Easy Button
1:06:04 Invasion
1:18:07 Creating a Safe Corridor
1:29:18 The Silver Lining
1:32:07 Outro

[Gametheory]

All the Star Wars easter eggs:

0:00 “Hello there”
5:48 “pathways to locations some consider to be unnatural”
14:19 “I am the Senate.”
20:18 “Who’s the more foolish?”
23:42 “This deal is getting worse all the time.”
24:12 Revenge of the Lines
29:04 “I have a bad feeling about this.”
35:40 “A surprise attack to be sure…”
36:14 May the Fourth
37:04 Mark Hamill cameo
41:48 Legal?
42:10 “It’s a trap!”
51:48 Execute Order 66
53:20 It’s over. Iran has the high ground.
54:05 I am your father.
55:37 “Somehow the Iranian mines returned.”
58:05 Reasons to hate sand
1:14:40 “Spinning is a good trick.”
1:17:28 “There’s always a bigger bomb.”
1:24:00 “The ability to draw lines does not make a theory intelligent.”
1:24:40 It’s treason then.
1:31:15 The tank is nicknamed Baby Yoda
1:32:12 “Now this is podcasting!”

[srcambledclips]

Getting updates on current events from this channel feels much less stressful than general news because of the educational insight that comes along with it.

I at least feel empowered that I’m learning more about the world than I would from simply seeing terrifying headlines, a summary of events, and moving on with my day.

Thank you. It helps to feel like there’s something I can grapple, encapsulate, and walk away with during all this conflict.

And for anyone reading this in the US, I hope you share the vigor that it’s given me to get my vote in, it seems like there’s potential for a lot of war these next few years and this election couldn’t be any more important.

[landotucker]

I love the shorter videos too but these longer ones you're doing now are a real treat because you can go into much more detail. Thanks, Will!

[FoxtrotYouniform]

BIG fan of the longer videos. Fully aware theyre brutal to makes, so not expecting them all that often, but huge fan of then when they show up, so Im algomenting for the comrythm

[louisbeauvy]

Exactly 26 seconds longer than the Taiwan long format, masterful gambit sir !

[StevenStarksjbirdcapitalllc]

Long but a better analysis than I have been getting from the news. Thank you.

[Rrd]

Love these more long format videos. Keep up the good work Mr. Spaniel!

[neoaquadolphin]

how many star wars references can you cram into one video?

[USJTAC]

“Oman has beautiful architecture but really, really hates contiguous land masses.” I find that statement hilarious and oddly - true. 😂😂

[drhxa]

Brilliant, concise, and extrordinarily detailed. These 90 min explorations are going to be watched for decades in the future! Beautitful contributions, thank you

[kentern]

Holy heck, an hour long? Time to get my popcorn

[aleonard]

I don't think anyone is more amused by Spaniel's sense of humor than he himself...

[MikoSciencia]

The insult that these videos convey: "zero actual information" may stem from the fact that no absolute conclusions are drawn about what will and will not happen. In that case it would inadvertently be a compliment that the videos are objective analyses that acknowledge that it is impossible to predict exactly what will happen and understand that the most we can do is speculate based on theories.

[tinap.]

Thanks! I’m many decades older than you and have lived through much of what you referenced but I still enjoy your commentary.

[towrofterra]

What a treat! I'm loving the detail you get into in these longer videos!

[haldosprime]

I was not expecting a video, nor at this length, as I get out of work but I appreciate it none the less. ❤

[bobbyfactor]

I greatly appreciate your work with analyzing these types of major geopolitical events/scenarios and their potential paths forward. I also enjoy long form conflict analysis content in general [may The Perun bless us with our weekly ppt].
But I did find large portions of this particular video to be repetition of what you've covered before. Perhaps necessary for this video to be complete on it's own, but that seem like overkill considering your audience?
Then again I might be misremembering and attributing some other analyst's videos to you... Ah well, beer o' clock!

[Asher.Yodaah]

I'm going to go ahead and say the timing of this video was mostly serendipitous, and not entirely made after the events of last night.

[willowtan]

I was getting sad you hadn't posted in a while, thought maybe the semester was getting to you, but damn did you come through

[endofsamba]

Spectacular video per usual (so far, only on part 3). Commenting and liking to encourage these longform videos despite the algorithm. 😎