The Hidden Reason Ukraine Is Optimistic about Crimea

Retaking Crimea has long been the goal for Ukraine. But why does Ukraine seem optimistic about its chances? The way that Russia has fought the war so far suggests that its position in Crimea is weaker than it might seem.

0:00 The Crimean Crisis
2:28 The Sevastopol Naval Base
5:02 Crimea's Demographic Challenges
9:13 Ukraine's Optimism
10:00 NATO Expansion as a Cause of War?
13:04 Separatist Regions as a Cause of War?
14:50 A Crimean Disaster?
19:21 Ukraine's Upcoming Tactics

From Office of the President of Ukraine:

From Government of Ukraine:

From Bundesarchiv:

From European Space Agency:

From European People's Party:

From Finnish Government:

[lasanar]

As a guy who grew up in a small industrial town in Crimea region and who is currently living in Odesa, Ukraine, I wanted to add some details from the first person perspective.

The annexation wasn't a thing that people of Crimea accepted voluntarily. Before the war we had a political party which was promoting the idea of voluntary joining with russia, and it had only 3% of the voters' support in the years prior to annexation. The whole referendum was a bullshit, where you saw a lot of armed russian troopers on your streets, absolutely no agitation against the referendum (cause all of the Ukrainian tv and radio channels were cut off by russians). You cannot possibly say that it's a thing that the Crimeans were supporting. And not even 50-55% like you said. It was a military takeover and nothing more. And in the interview with Igor Girkin (you may know him as a guy who was declared guilty for the Boeing accident in the separatist regions by the Hague court recently) said himself that he had to force the deputies to sign the petition to transfer the region under russia's jurisdiction.


The same happened with the separatist regions and Girkin is one of the people who was sent to Donetsk region from russia to take over the governmental buildings and form up a guerilla, when the people who were living there had no such thing in mind.

It's totally ok that we have some cultural differences in our country, that is common for almost every country in the world, but it never came to total hostility between Ukrainian Russians and Ukrainians.

Please don't let the russian propaganda make you think that the people of Crimea wanted to be with russia. That's a lie and a casus belli for doing anything they want in the region.

[karlgrimm]

Whether or not the population believes that the more popular choice won in the so called referendum in 2014 is irrelevant. The “referendum” had two options, joining Russia or becoming an independent country. The Russians themselves admit that remaining with Ukraine was not an option on the ballot.

[Sean-snld]

Finland and Sweden being "relatively stable" is like saying a perfect circle is "Relativity Round"

[meinardsl]

From what I have heard is that Crimean's at this point are on the edge. They were indeed supportive of the annexation but Moscow is simply not capable of providing what annexation took away. Businesses are crumbling, food is becoming scarce, economy is faltering, tourism is essentially non-existent compared to what it used to be, Crimean residents can only travel to Russia unless they are looking for a one-way ticket to flee and overall quality of life in the peninsula has essentially gone from a luxurious resort with a lot of things to do and places to see to borderline 3rd world status where everything sucks in just over a decade.

There's also the problem that a lot of promises were made by the Russians, none of which have been kept, obviously. It's not like Moscow didn't try, they did and they did pour A LOT of money into Crimea. It simply isn't anywhere near comparable to what Crimea made by itself as a part of Ukraine and now they are entirely reliant on something that is inherently worse with no potential for improvement - hence the war and land bridge(which by itself was basically going all-in on a bluff).

[matt]

This analysis seems to forget that the first target of the war was Kyiv. They wanted to topple the government of the entire country, not just annex the southeast quarter to connect Crimea.

[irBribe]

Hey William I wanted to thank you for providing a good look into the Ukrainian's situation for us. I've been watching you for a few months and I think you provide great insight into the situation.

[FilmFactry]

This is the best explanation of the cause I have heard all these months. Thank you!

[gunghoadventures]

Great work William . This is probably the best explanation of the history leading up to this war.

[mittfh]

It's likely the "Land bridge" idea for just taking Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in addition to Donetsk and Luhansk was a later revision to their original strategy: given they tried taking Kyiv plus Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, they likely initially thought they could just roll on and take over the entire country.

When that failed, they tried for Novorussiya, with the four "Land bridge" Oblasts plus Kharkiv, while hoping they could also take over Myoklaiv and Odessa Oblasts to completely cut what was left of Ukraine off from the sea and link up with Transnistria, the thin slice of Moldova occupied by pro-Russian Separatists almost since independence. Given they also attempted the "genocide of Russian speakers" excuse on Moldova, it's possible at some point, they thought they could help themselves to Moldova as well.

Putin may have even harboured ambitions of bringing his "Russiky mir" dream to life - especially given his numerous statements to the effect of granting Ukraine independence was a mistake, believing Ukraine is not, has never been, and ever will be a "proper" country and that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are all one people.

[victimized]

Hi, Crimean here. I haven't been living in the peninsula since 2019 so I can't estimate the real mood of crimeans as of today but as far as I can tell, Russia made sure that pro-ukranian crimeans no longer live in Crimea and it also made sure to populate the peninsula with Russians. So, while I fancy the idea for Crimea to return home, It's a bit of an overstatement that todays Cimea population will support it, even if they have shitty life. What I think should happen is Russia should suffer a total loss on the battlefield, reinstall democratic institutions and peacefully return the peninsula back to Ukraine, while also return russians that moved to Crimea since 2014 back to Russia and pay them the expenses they took to relocate to Crimea and back to Russia

[mariadekelver]

I really appreciate the break down of NATO’s role in this. Always understood NATO expansion wasn’t the real reason Putin invaded

[EddieRigo]

In my circles we believed it was always about keeping the naval base in Crimea and later connecting it to Russia. Your video demonstrates this very well, and I would suspect quite accurate.

[normdyer]

You should open a discussion with Denys Davydov, Ukrainian airline pilot born in Crimea and now a you tuber up to date on day-to-day events of the war.

[danjohnson]

Pointing out the damming of the canal restricting fresh water, with the picture made your analytical arc very real and understandable! Shows the military thinking going on all during the Crimea conflict. When I can sense or see the foundations of assertions I find them most illuminating!

[RingDinger]

The extension of the lease on crimean naval facilities beyond 2017, also known under the name "Kharkiv Pact", was a legal controversy in itself concerning the voting process and constitutional issues. I highly recommend to read up on this topic.

[semipalatinsk]

Incredibly interesting analysis! Always a good idea not to automatically accept Russia's explanations at face value, since they lie constantly about everything.

[robertpatrick]

Russian ability to use Sevastopol as a naval base has been reduced by Ukrainian developing and acquiring more advanced weapons. Russia’s transformation of Ukraine into a foe will end up with the remains of the Black Sea fleet acting a a diving attraction at the bottom of Sevastopol harbour.

[tipskulhiso]

I’m Thai and I grew up just across the river from Lao, my first language is Laotian. My last name is Laotian, my ancestors were from Lao but I will support Thailand or die for Thailand if Thai and Lao would go to war, fortunately Thais and Laotians don’t care for each other land no more. We just love each other’s food and money so we do business not war

[earljohnson]

Best show and love how you take your time with the videos and don’t push garbage out everyday . Just a well rounded breakdown love it and look forward to more

[stellifriends]

interesting analysis; i am very surprised that not more commentators have examined the significance of Sevastopol.