The Tech Job Market in 2024

Chapters

00:00 The Shift to a Flat Job Market
04:09 Challenges in Hiring
06:30 Rejections and Opportunities for Improvement
08:46 The Changing Landscape of Referrals
09:44 The Potential of AI in Disrupting the Talent Matching Process

Takeaways

1. The job market for product managers and engineers has become flat with minimal growth in recent years.
2. Hiring has become more challenging as recruiters have to sift through a larger volume of applicants.
3. Applicants should not take rejections personally but use them as opportunities to improve their positioning.
4. Referrals are no longer a guaranteed ticket to interviews.
5. AI has the potential to disrupt the talent matching process and optimize hiring practices.

Sound Bites

"The job market has become flat for product managers and engineers."
"Hiring has become more challenging as recruiters have to sift through a larger volume of applicants."
"Applicants tend to blame themselves for rejections, but it's often an overall assessment of fit."

Summary

The job market for product managers and engineers has become flat, with minimal growth in the past few years. This is despite the layoffs and mass layoffs that occurred in big companies and startups. The market turnover for product managers is about 10% a year, indicating a stable market. Hiring has become more challenging as recruiters have to sift through a larger volume of applicants and find precise fits for roles. Applicants should not take rejections personally but use them as opportunities to improve their positioning and learn from the experience. Referrals are no longer a guaranteed ticket to interviews. AI has the potential to disrupt the talent matching process and optimize hiring practices.

Keywords

job market, product managers, engineers, flat market, turnover, hiring challenges, rejections, referrals, AI disruption

[lain]

I got my first software job in 2022 with no experience after roughly 80 applications. Now in 2024 with 2 years of experience I have sent out over 400 job applications and have received exactly 0 offers.

[jayspeidell]

I graduated in May 2020. Probably 3, 000 applications, two dozen informational interviews. The catch is I was 35, and a ton of people told me they'd love to hire me but I'm not fit for an entry level role and wouldn't be a good match to sit at a desk of 22 year olds. But if I get a year of experience they'd be happy to hire me, or I can interview as a project manager next week.

Couldn't afford to do an internship, needed all the money from my current career to pay the bills and tuition.

Still working in marketing today.

[U]

I work in tech at a fang HQ, and lead a multi level engineering org of about 200 people. We're actually trying to hire somewhat aggressively but are artificially throttled because we had to switch to sourcing instead of web applicants due to the volume of extreme spam auto-apply and mass apply applications. While many positions are opening, and accelerating we literally can't fill them fast enough because the automation and software tools that made up our intake workflow collapsed under the volume and now its very manual because web applicants basically go to un monitored inboxes. It's not an exaggeration to say we see line cooks, and warehouse material handlers applying for embedded development roles through mass application tools.

[dur]

This is a great, no bs analysis. Few in tech really seem to understand that hiring is driven not just by business need but by investment and the financial markets. It's huge. And that disconnect I think is what is fueling a lot of the misery. To many, it seems like the job market just slowed down for no reason.

[KC-cevk]

Hi Nate! So happy I found you 😊
How about the job market abroad? Do you have any insights? Thank you 🤗

[YTgome]

Great advice. Thanks for sharing. Also better start to learn promoting Eng with AI so that you can be ready with your AI being interviewed by the company's AI!! 😂

[boot-strapper]

I used to get job offers without applying or interviewing. Lol. Now finding a job is borderline impossible.

[connorskudlarek]

Job count is flat, but job seekers is well, well above normal in the industry. That's why it doesn't 'feel' flat.

That's why there are thousands of applicants per role instead of dozens or low hundreds.

In 2012 there were 47.4k CS degrees awarded. In 2022 there were over 100k.

This is a 7-8% growth range, annualized. If the growth rate continued at this rate, there needs to be an about equivalent rate of growth to meet demand. But there isn't.

I do agree with the difficulty in exact fit requirements. If hiring managers accept that 70% is enough to train them through the other 30%, it's super easy to find someone. But execs want 115%, which is hard.

[Albertux]

One point that you don't mention is the salaries are flat or lower in new job offers

[rookie]

Often times the company finds me. Companies have also cut down on recruiters. Companies are also preferring local candidates.

[dsinkey]

I find it hard to believe that it’s flat, and hasn’t fallen. ADP the payroll company put out a study, and the number of people on listed as a software developer is down to 83 percent of what it was in 2018

[gourdbox]

Is there a type of person that enjoys this game? Are the most successful people actually just better at this set of hoop jumping or is anyone at the high level actually good at their actual job too? Just interested.

[mhedden]

I can appreciate your optimism about interest rates going back down, but I really don't think anyone can rely on that happening in a significant fashion in the near future (5+ years minimum in my opinion).

Interest rates are the feds main way to combat inflation. By raising the rates and putting a damper on company spending wages will flatten which doesn't allow consumers to pay more for the things they want than their peers.

Unless the fed puts us into another recession causing wages to drop (which they don't want to do because it would raise unemployment), the interests rates won't come down unless there is a significant reduction in government spending, significant drop in raw materials cost, or unexpected change in some of the other smaller levers that pull on inflation.

[plica]

Didn't realise John Malkovich works in tech now.

[nothing]

As long as Indian H1B people are here in The USA and Offshoring Americans jobs to India we will not get into IT field.