What Everyone Gets Wrong about China Invading Taiwan

For a decade, Western countries feared the rise of China and what they would have to do to stop it. In the last few years, though, their concerns have reversed. Now the problem is a declining mainland, and what the leadership in Beijing may do with Taiwan it loses the power to do so forever.

But so much that surrounds the conflict is misunderstood: from what causes wars in the broadest sense, to China’s desire to capture Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, to why the United States would want intervene to protect Taiwan, to whether China has the numbers necessary to pull off the feat, to the destruction of dams, to why exactly demographics are working against China, and to how nuclear weapons will shape the conflict. This is what everyone gets wrong about China invading Taiwan.

0:00 Introduction
1:50 Faultlines
7:23 The War Puzzle
12:19 The Rise of China
16:45 The Decline of China
25:12 Invasion Plans
32:47 Demographic Deficit
40:42 But Would They Really?
55:24 'Murica
1:03:12 How the United States Would Intervene
1:11:12 The Nuclear Dimension
1:16:39 How to Stop a War

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

[Gametheory]

1:24:00 I feel like the woman's shirt in the bottom left corner is a microcosm of everything in this video.

[MissionFreiheit]

1.5 hours? Wow this is a doctoral thesis and not a YouTube video. I'm impressed 😮

[thepax]

"An aging autocratic leader of a large country..."

"Do you have any idea, how little that narrows it down?" (Batman Beyond)
😅

[AmskepticalTravelers-secr]

Honestly, your previous videos didn't cut it for me. This one, however, hit the nail on the head. Very well put together. Your bullet point on the major issues confronting a would be aggressor helped spell out Beijing's problems in recouping Taiwan's golden goose. Very much enjoyed this. I'll subscribe.

[redvirusexe]

I’m Chinese and I always believed that CCP will never forcefully take Taiwan unless its rule was threatened either by external or internal factors. There’s too much to lose for all parties if war breaks out now and believe me when I say most Chinese and even Taiwanese prefer the current status quo in the cross strait relationship. We all rather prefer to have a war on words rather than an actual war.

[elisfan]

the fact that this content is available for free is wild. you're the best man

[pitzahoot]

"When the balance of power favours you on the long run, then everyday that passes by is a victory. "
Gave me Ther Art of War vibes.

[chromasus]

The funny thing is, I have thought some of your videos as too short, maybe too jokey. This one, by comparison, is an excellent analysis into the full depth of the Taiwan situation. Thank you for making it!

[andyrosa]

EXCELLENT analysis. Top 5 piece on this topic I’ve seen, and I’m still not giving you enough credit. Truly so thorough and well done. Thank you.

[ThisMoth]

I use YouTube as a replacement for tv and streaming services and have been doing so for 15 years, and your videos are the ones I look forward to the most because they have a lot of substance and I actually learn from them instead of just consume here and now information. Cheers William

[borovik]

Greetings, Political Will ;-). I send my regards from Poland. Such extensive content must have required a great deal of effort on your part. I wish you continued growth for your channel! ;-)

[sorrynothing]

Great analysis but one thing I hope to address.
Yes, Republic of China still claiming sovereignty over mainland. It's written in constitution and we have no way to change it.
But No, no one in Taiwan actually has the intention to reclaim it.
Declare war, take over mainland, that's never gonna happen.

It's another thing "Everyone Gets Wrong". Most of the analysis video when talk about this, always sounds like feel both sides has the reason to invade each other.

[Nope-wc]

Fun fact. D-Day ONLY had between 4, 000 - 9, 000 casualties. That is incredibly, unbelievably low for such an invasion. It's absolutely mind-boggling how they managed that so successfully.

[officernealy]

Conducting a successful amphibious landing is one of the hardest things you could militarily attempt. Fighting offensively on a mountainous terrain is the stuff of nightmares. Conducting an amphibious invasion of a mountainous island would be hell on earth.

[louai]

who needs movies when William Spaniel drops a 1.5 hour video?

[abuanwp]

I live in Taiwan, this analysis is actually very accurate! 😅😅
That is why people in Taiwan is never alarmed by these china threat. China's purpose is unification not wipeout the population so a bargaining deal is always in the air.

[Weissenschenkel]

Man, that was intensive. I had a small pause for a coffee and came back to watch until the end.

Many thanks, Mr. Spaniel!

[footofblut]

BABE WAKE UP, WILLIAM SPANIAL JUST DROPPED A 90 MIN VIDEO🗣️🗣️🗣️

[Johnny-Space]

a long one, he's spoiling us today

[GThu]

TSMC is the single most important factory in the world. There are so much interest to defend it which alone would save the whole country. Planners in China are very stupid if they think customers of TSMC (which is you as well for sure) will let that factory stop. Oh, by the way China is also one of the biggest buyer of TSMC. Almost all journalist underestimates this grossly.