Polish military modernisation & why are they buying Korean tanks? - Featuring @TheChieftainsHatch

In the video I'm pretty sure I say you get the Matilda Black Prince - it's actually the Excelsior, which is a decent tank capable of moving faster than walking speed (unlike my TOG II). You also get a bunch of in game currency, seven days of premium, and rental access to three solid vehicles - Tiger, Cromwell, and T-34/85. Only for new players though!

Importantly though - I want to stress the Chieftain is appearing in a personal capacity for his video segment, not as a rep of Wargaming or WoT.

Description:
Military modernisation is a complex task for any state. Individual system selection is usually based on competitive trials and an extensive review and evaluation process.

Usually.

Poland's plans are a little different - ordering what is basically an entire new army's worth of equipment (with more tanks than many other major European states combined) from the Republic of Korea without any sort of extended trials process.

In this episode, I ask the question of why a country in Europe would suddenly buy 1,000 tanks and hundreds of artillery pieces from a country half way around the world without so much as a trials program for the tank.

To comment on why Poland may have selected the K2 - I've invited back the Chieftain to give a tanker's expert view on the question.

Thank you as always for engaging with this study of defence economics in action, and we'll return to topics examining the Ukraine war next week.

Caveats:
There are two big caveats over this one.

The first is that announcements (as used as a key source here) doesn't always mean a program will deliver on time or as announced. 1,000 tanks ordered could become 500, delivery times might change etc. In fact, I'd go so far as to say they PROBABLY WILL change in many respects. This is a massive block of procurement that will challenge the heck out of any procurement office, let alone one that has not had to deal with this volume in recent years.

The second is that some statements are based on what you might call industry rumour, scuttlebutt, 'common knowledge' or what have you. I have tried to flag these where they come up.

Patreon:

Sources & Further Reading:
2021 platform figures are MB2021 as usual for the sake of consistency between episodes.

NATO expenditure figures are per NATO as normal:

For PPP calculations - see detailed sourcing in my video on European Defence

Polish announcement on domestic production:

RE: Technical modernisation plans

Polish MoD publications:

Polish Abrams Procurement announcement example:

"USAF plan to Divest to Invest is too risky" - Gen. John Michael Loh (ret.) (presented without either endorsement or critique)

K9 production for Poland:

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — OPENING WORDS
00:02:06 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT
00:03:04 — SPONSOR: WORLD OF TANKS
00:04:32 — *THE POLISH MILITARY*
00:04:44 — A Cold War Force
00:06:23 — Between East and West
00:07:42 — The Military of 2021
00:08:20 — Designed with Purpose
00:10:32 — Poland's Competing Requirements
00:12:03 — The Polish DIB
00:13:13 — Borsuk & Krab
00:14:12 — *THE BUYING SPREE*
00:15:34 — K2
00:16:10 — K9
00:16:56 — K239
00:19:34 — FA-50
00:19:57 — A "Diverse" Fleet
00:20:54 — *HOW ARE THEY AFFORDING IT*
00:20:58 — Divest to Invest
00:22:34 — Budgets and Margins
00:24:03 — But it is Expensive
00:25:15 — *WHY KOREAN*
00:25:25 — An Extensive Order Book
00:26:12 — *ASSESSING K2*
00:26:22 — Guest: The Chieftain
00:36:55 — *THE INDUSTRIAL DIMENSION*
00:37:27 — More Than Just Speculations
00:38:32 — *KOREAN EXPORT STRATEGY*
00:38:49 — A Growing Player
00:39:29 — RoK Arms Exports (SIPRI TIV 2001-21)
00:39:53 — Competitive Advantages
00:41:21 — Playing to Their Strengths
00:42:20 — The Strategy
00:43:31 — *TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER & MARKET PENETRATION*
00:43:42 — S1: Imported Hardware
00:45:52 — S2: Domestic Production
00:48:05 — S3: Joint Development & Marketing
00:49:36 — *TARGET EUROPE*
00:49:54 — The European Market
00:50:57 — Entrenched Actors
00:51:43 — Evolving Tank Fleets
00:53:09 — A Third Competitor
00:55:20 — The Korean Offer
00:56:48 — CONCLUSIONS
00:57:50 — CHANNEL UPDATE

[PerunAU]

If you are new, the promo code TANKMANIA should get you the following:
-7 Days Premium Account
-250k credits
-Premium Tank Excelsior (Tier 5)
-3 rental tanks for 10 battles each: Tiger 131 (Tier 6), Cromwell B (Tier 6), and T34-85M (Tier 6)

Also many thanks to the Chieftain for appearing to give his evaluation of K2 in the Polish context - it's always good to have YT's resident tanker onboard.

Finally thanks to all viewers as usual - I'm feeling better this week but needed more time to work on the next Ukraine topic, so it was great as always to take a break and look into the world of defence economics. After doing the Germany video - I warn this might be a bit of a jarring change...

[imperialisticvonhabsburg]

Poland: So you are saying 8 HIMARS are enough to stop an entire Russian army?
The West: Yes.
Poland: *I'D LIKE 500*

[niknitro]

It makes perfect sense that Poland got a new tank that can deal with mountainous terrain. They just think 2 steps ahead and are ready to defend the Polish border in the Ural mountains.

[stylefactory]

I'm Korean.
Along with this contract, Poland and Korea decided to create brilliant works with engineers in the development of next-generation K3, AS-22, KF-21 block3 and K9A3. Polish and Korean like brothers who share the same fate. fight fire with fire!! all for one one for all!! 🤩

[twinsiesyt]

As a South Korean, I would like to add one important aspect to this partnership. That is, Poland can become a supply hub for South Korea in the case of war in Korea. Building our own weapons instead of using the US made systems came with potential supply issues. So Poland can solve this issue of steady supply of replacement parts and equipment.

[Herbaling]

Hey Perun,
I'm by no means any analyst or any military specialist, however, as a trusty ol' Pole, I can chip in with one thing that I think was worth to talk about in your presentation, which is history of deliveries of western EU equipment to Poland as well as political relationships with countries such as Germany or US

In Poland it's always looked down upon when it comes to being dependent on Germans as they haven't proved a reliable partner in terms of military orders or deliveries. In the past it was always a lot of issues with German contracts and their deliveries, and I believe Polish government has a bad tase in the collective mouth. I believe the same would apply for France.

While US is great in terms of equipment quality, we don't have much negotiating power with them and are reliant on them in most of cases as we consider them our biggest partner. While that is great for them, it also results in higher price for their equipment and gives political leverage over Poland which is not something I believe, any country would want.

Then comes in South Korea who actually seems to treat Poland as a partner rather than someone to take advantage of, who seems to be a reliable weapons exporter on a global market, and we don't have history with them like we do with Germans or French. They see us as an opportunity to gain European market and therefore we have much bigger leverage in negotiations and future relations (joint projects like you mentioned).

[zephyrback]

I’m glad that Perun is becoming the Forrest Gump of military logistics and economics; somehow meeting everyone with military knowledge and having them feature in his videos.

[tziganeofwales]

"I don't want to go down a rabbit hole" - That glorious ship has already sailed 🙂 👍👍

[ed]

As Polish American who trained in Tae Kwon Do under Master Kwon Sung Choi (and developed a deep respect and admiration for Korean culture), this is a win-win-win for me. Both Korea and Poland are countries that have suffered invasions and betrayals by other countries, including "allies." They have learned that being self-sufficient is the key to survival, making them natural partners.

[Ezasur]

I'm a simple Hungarian, I see Poland buying 1k MBTs and hundreds of HIMARS-like systems and I hit like.

[Talon]

75 IQ: If Russia invades, NATO will not react fast enough to save Poland from Russia.
100 IQ: If Russia invades, NATO *will* react fast enough to save Poland from Russia.
130 IQ: If Russia invades, NATO will not react fast enough to save Russia from *Poland.*

[MarcLucksch]

You are right, I don’t want a 15 Minute presentation on ways to budget defence funding, it’s gotta be at least 4 times as long. 1 hour minimum on this channel.

[VirtuousDog]

I am Korean and have experience working with a few Polish colleagues. Observing our interactions, there were evident parallels in our work ethic. Both sides not only make commitments but also follow through on them with actions and prioritize punctuality. We love working with people like that~ Such experiences suggest a promising foundation for more future collaborations between South Korea and Poland.

파이팅~

[pioni]

It's easy to understand what Poland is doing when you note how nice of a neighbour Russia has been to everyone for 1000 years.

[mmeade]

There is one thing that wasnt discussed. From the South Korean side of things, its very advantageous for them to export the ability to ~PRODUCE~ SK military equipment. The Koreans are actually in a neighborhood where they may have to use there military. If things ever go hot on the Korean peninsula, those tank factories are going to be high on the list of targets for the North...

If you've got a friendly country that is producing "nearly" the same thing on another continent, that means a potential supply of spares or maybe even whole new units when needed.

Whereas the Germans and the Americans are quite a ways away from any potential adversaries, to them technology transfer and industrial production sharing isnt as important. Distance provides room for them to try to protect there own production facilities...

[DerpsWithWolves]

"...I'm also not sure how many of my viewers actually want to hear me spend fifteen minutes talking about the variety of funding mechanisms or budgetary structures you can use in order to support military capital spending."

And, just like Poland walking into an arms expo: "YES."

[cochacopen]

Go Poland GO! As an American I'm all for this partnership.

[camustein]

Thank you for an awesome video :) - as a South Korean I would like to provide some perspectives about those weapon systems and parallel between South Korea and Poland(which I found interesting)!

1. Doctrine of South Korea is heavily focused on firepower. Korea has the second largest SPG fleet (approx. 3000) in the world. This is due to the experience from the Korean War. Often RoK army had to defend massive coordinated assaults of NK army and PLA. Whilst american Army could rely on air supports(on top of their artillery capability), RoK army didn't have luxury of rich air support. Therefore there are a number of crucial battles where the amount of firepower determined the result. Also, hilly nature of Korean favours indirect fire.

2. In recent days, RoK army/airforce/navy is focusing on firepower even heavier. We are acquiring new fleets of ballistic missiles, ALCM, and even korean version of arsenal ship to launch ballistic missile. The reason for it is rather strategical. Since RoK is so much capable than its foe, NK, the task of RoK military is not to win the war but to win the war without losing too much. We are confident that in the case of war, we can definitely erase NK out of the map but it would likely to damage RoK economy significantly, since Seoul, where most of Korean economic capability is concentrated, is only 100km away from the frontline. NK often boast that they can "put Seoul into firestorm" with their massive fleet unguided rocket/howitzers aiming towards Seoul. Therefore we are OBSESSED with how fast we can strike NK before they even start firing the ammunitions. Poland shares the fate of relatively short strategic depth since it borders Russia and Belarus directly.

3. RoK weapons have DNA of Eastern weaponries interestingly. Throughout 1990s and 2000s, Russia payed some of its loan back with their weapon systems such as T-80U, BMP-3, Hovercrafts, Ka-32, Metis-M, Igla. They are studied by Korean engineers and many of Korean weapon system inherits some features from them. For an example, radiation shielding liner of K2 is based on that of T-80U. We have Hypersonic ASBM and BRBM heavily influenced by Russian technologies. I suspect that Poland might have found attractive that RoK has rich experience of integrating soviet technologies into western systems and perhaps hoping for learning some know hows from technological cooperations.

[DeamonIT]

South Korea: "What do you want and how much?"
Poland: "Yes, and yes"

[Haamre]

Hi Perun, just a small personal observation from a Pole:
I remember that the original modernization plans were much more modest, and there was some talks ("leaks", if you want), after one of the annual "defensive annual war games" that apparently the US (I think it might've been somewhere around 2018-2020, or so) said bluntly to some of our Generals, that we (and the Baltics) should prepare & train for "guerilla warfare" (Javelin-style), because NATO would be incapable to defend us if Russia went all in (and US would be occupied with "something" in the Pacific...) - and that we'd be only rescued after few months. At that time, the scenarios mostly ended with us loosing and Warsaw falling/being cut off after 5 days or so.

I remember a quite visible change in the stance of the narrative both from the government & the military after Bucha & Irpien massacres were brought to light though - and it seems that now the consensus is that "you cannot let the Russians into our territory more than it would be necessary to activate article 5". Also the "need" for so many HIMARS/MLRS systems is due to the wish to "neutralize" the enemy (assembly points, logistics, etc.) "beyond our border" (if - and after - the war breaks out), to avoid the devastation of ones own territory, which is associated with staying on pure defensive.