'Be Bloody Careful' As Recession Hits Europe and China | Paul Hodges

Jack welcomes back to Forward Guidance Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH Report. Hodges argues that lockdowns in China have already plunged the country into a forced recession, and that the European energy crisis has made a recession on the continent a virtual certainty.

Hodges notes that central bankers’ priority is now curbing inflation rather than stimulating asset prices, and he argues that this U-Turn will likely spell further trouble for the beleaguered stock market. Hodges also shares his latest insights on electric vehicles and the global chemicals market. Filmed on May 23, 2022.
--
--

--
00:00 Introduction
13:45 Why Is Inflation Bad For Stocks?
21:24 Fate of Hyper-Growth Tech Stocks
23:15 Tesla
27:23 Ben Graham's Valuation Rules
30:34 Recession In Europe
42:39 Recession Risk in the U.S.
46:10 Housing
49:05 The Federal Reserve
52:14 Chemicals Market Flashing Warning Signals
56:00 Recession in China
1:07:07 Electronic Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)

[johntakacs]

Wow, Paul is first class, very knowledgeable. Always listen to an old head, experience and history can be everything!

[angelmarauder]

Can you imagine 10% interest rate with 130% debt to GDP and a shrinking economy!? Omg

[connieho]

You guys are wearing similar checkered shirt; quite a team. 😀

[tcpwiz]

Epic discussion! Worth watching 2x. Firehose of reasoned analysis.

[tvogel]

Sorry - very good conversation, Paul is obv very smart.
Thank you.

[Sunny]

Very refreshing. Great interview. Real deep

[fastpistonx]

Far more logical than Buy The Dippers!

[nikkisav]

I love how you have similar shirts! Very classy guys, ok going to pay attention to your great minds now!

[koltoncrane]

Another thing is as long as it’s legal diesel pickups will always be bought cause millions of Americans hunt, farm, pull haul trailers, use it to haul for work etc. Maybe they’ll have a heavy duty EV truck but i doubt it’ll be economical or cheaper. And

Like take electric chainsaws for example. I’ve tried one. I’ve tried battery powered disc grinders. They’re expensive. It’s super nice not needing a cord for some projects. But if you actually have a lot of grinding to do it’s a joke to use an electric grinder. Cause you’ll run out of battery pretty quick. If you’re grinding or using a flapper wheel remove paint it’ll be better to just use a big 9 inch grinder that uses a cord cause it’s literally got more power. You can push on it and it’ll handle whereas a battery powered one will sort of slow down or not perform as well. I’m sure batteries will advance but for the cost I just think a lot of devices are uneconomical or not smart industrial wise.

[IBUCme]

Euro has been getting stronger since May 13. Why this change from getting weaker to getting stronger?

[c.j.ricottone]

Electric vehicle = 20 moving parts. ICE vehicle = 2000
🤔

[jeffb.]

We have been in a depression since the financial crises of 07/08 here in Europe and have never recovered

[donpcmartin]

54:20 knocked for six is an awesome colloquial!

[kevinsingh]

"but Paul what i'm trying to ask is why are you wearing the same shirt as me?"

[angelmarauder]

"it's not difficult"
as someone who worked at Tesla, you are very wrong. There were a lot of startups working in-house providing excellent cutting edge products. The challenge of supply lines and vertical logistics went far beyond the brand.

[johnjohn-kdfl]

so, if everything is overvalued, then cash is the only thing that is undervalued....

[alanmrsic]

TESLA is more than just a car company, right :-)

[rof]

Jack, there is a pristine asset that's undervalued. It's Ethereum. DCF calc estimates fair value at about $10k per ETH

[carefulmovers]

He had me until he said gm and ford would give tesla competition. They dont need to raise money any more either geez

[ticker]

Ya'll coordinate the wardrobe today? Ha.