Allan Lichtman: October surprise 'huge myth,' predicts Harris victory | Cuomo

The "October surprise" is a "huge myth" in American politics, according to the historian who devised the “Keys to the White House” formula. Allan Lichtman, a historian and American University professor, has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984 using a formula of 13 true-or-false questions.

"My system is based upon the fundamental forces that drive elections. ... It's governing, not campaigning, that counts," Lichtman said on NewsNation's "CUOMO." "I've always always made my predictions before then (October) and I never change them." Frank Luntz, a renowned pollster and communications consultant, also weighs in on "CUOMO."
#Harris #Election2024 #Cuomo

Chris Cuomo hosts "CUOMO," a no-nonsense show featuring the day's most important news from all perspectives. "CUOMO" airs weeknights at 8 p.m. ET/ 7 p.m. CT on NewsNation. #CUOMO

NewsNation is your source for fact-based, unbiased news for all America.

[P..]

I don't know who will win, but I like that Allan sticks to facts. The polls are just surveys.

[CarolynFoster-sfoz]

Man!! Allan is a genius!! He’s the man!! 💙💙💙💙🧢🧢🧢🧢

[MI-ztwv]

he didn't account for the dementia and incompetence keys

[JeffreyOsborne-ofsq]

why are we even voting? shouldn't we just take his word for it! My 1 vote counts more than all of their opinions. GO VOTE!! Good Luck!!!

[doomaphotos]

The back to back devastating hurricanes are the October surprise

[hw]

Lichtman talks about polling being wrong for both sides. He's coping here, because mid terms and main election years are completely different. And when it comes to Trump, even more so. Trump has historically outperformed the polls by a wide margin, and there's no reason to expect any difference here. He might win the popular vote.

[melchorasoy]

He is correct! Historian!He is bright too!

[andrewkeshan]

Allan Litman is making a lot of money out of this because of his historic accuracy. It's paid off now to lead him to this moment so he doesn't care if he gets it wrong this time.

he's made a fortune. Good on you Allan

[barbarabrownhenry]

I’m going with Lichtman 👍🏽 save America 🇺🇸 and vote 🗳️ 💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙

[rickmartin]

Time to get out in the sun Allan! Looking forward to laughing and trolling you hard once the FAKE black woman loses!

[christhompson-sl]

all he is saying is polls don't account for most of the voters which he is right. all they can do is give you a general direction and trend that things could be going. don't even know if the people polled will even vote or just having fun with the pollster or just like the attention of being polled. its voter turnout that matters which party can get their people out to vote. in 2020 trump supporters boycotted the GA election and look what happened.

[jones]

Polls are campaigning not governing.

How the party in power governs decides who wins the election.

I remember in 2012 Obama was down in October a week or two before the election, and he won.

[TenTenJ]

How do you claim to have a scientific method and browbeat everyone to oblivion to believe your own opinion. What a hack.

[I_have_Aquestion]

2:15 Trump seems unhinged? What?….when?

[jorgemaldonado]

I agree with them, Pollos don’t mean nothing is five of us in my house and we all vote for Kamala Harris and none of us answered a pollsters phone call email or text.

[knockshinnoch]

It's the Battle of the bad Toupees

[harleenquinzel]

The keys don't factor in misogyny and that's why I'm nervous

[kevwiz]

LOL. 😂 I hope this guy comes on after the elections.
And wow, he predicted Obama's victory. Amazing. 😂😂😂😂

[Enfieldl]

Well HW Bush won in 88 despite this “17 points behind.” He did however lose to Clinton in 1992. A misquote I can’t say

[mrmikecebu]

The flashed map at 3 minutes or so in does not match the polls. Nevada is harris currently, as is michigan and Wisconsin.