Ukraine's Kursk Offensive: The lessons and risks of Ukraine's push into Russia

For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions.

On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price.

Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next.

Patreon:

Caveats, Comments and Corrections:

At one point I refer to us being "more than two and a half years in" to the Russian full-scale invasion. I meant to say "almost two and a half years in"

All normal caveats and disclaimers apply

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes

Sources & Reading (in process of revision - to be revised 04/09):

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:45 — The War In August 2024
00:05:49 — Preparation & Forewarning?
00:12:41 — Force Composition: Russia
00:14:03 — Force Composition: Ukraine
00:17:17 — Defence Lines
00:28:21 — A Statement Of Potential Intent
00:31:48 — (Tentative) Observations
00:42:03 — Politics & Perceptions
00:44:30 — The Russian Response
00:51:21 — The Military Dynamic?
00:56:28 — Assessing Objectives
01:00:12 — What Comes Next?
01:03:29 — Conclusions
01:04:42 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

I'm very glad we decided to hold this video back a week as I believe it's allowed some observations and lessons, particularly about the earliest stages of the offensive to crystalise. I have no doubt we'll be coming back to this soon once the lines start to stabilise and it becomes clearer what Ukraine's intention is, but for the moment, I hope you enjoy this relatively early assessment.

My reflective take at this point is that Ukraine's performance at a tactical and operational level so far in the region has been a step change from what we're used to seeing this year. The part that is up in the air for me is what the picture going forward, particularly at a strategic level will be. Ukraine took a risk on this offensive. Only time will tell on where that decision sits on the spectrum from folly to genius.

As noted in the description, as this one is releasing after midnight and I am very jet-lagged, the list of sources and further reading will be updated tomorrow. Apologies for the delay.

[itnefer]

"The German officers analyzing the _ongoing_ battle of Kursk" is a gem I didn't expect.

[kullervo]

Born too late for a german general's opinion on the kursk offensive, Born just in time for a german general's opinion on the kursk offensive,

[RG]

I hadn't considered it: a hostile army is performing combat operations with heavy NATO equipment in Russia, and Russia still isn't in a state of war.

[seangannon]

Between Ukraine not collapsing in general, the complete overestimation of Russian military capabilities, the Wagner Group “coup” and now the Ukrainian invasion of Russia this war is just full of surprises

[sokobian]

My interpretation is that Ukraine wanted to get out of the frozen stalemate. If it stays frozen too long, the idea of making peace with existing frontlines could grow in the West.

[michaelramon]

I still can't get over a picture I saw of some Ukrainian troops in a gas station buying hot dogs before hopping back in their vehicle to resume the invasion of Russia.

This has been a weird war, man.

[AndrewBlucher]

Two little gems I enjoyed from other sources:
- A babushka welcoming Ukrainian troops and speaking Ukrainian.
- The Ukrainian post office announcing that it was planning to provide postal services in Kursk.

[priyan]

My favourite part was when Perun said it's PowerPoint time and PowerPointed all over the video

[drakusk]

Ukraine playing 5d chess.

You cant fire NATO weapons across the russian border, if the NATO weapons are already in russia.

[tjdjultima]

Saw a great joke online, Putin is stressing about the invasion so he summons the ghost of Stalin. He says to Stalin, the not-sees are invading Kursk and our armies are crumbling what should I do?

And Stalin replies, send your best Ukrainian forces to the front lines and ask the Americans for weapons

[skeewiffenator]

“Ukraine’s allies proving they ain’t snitches”.

That one got me

[hereigoagain]

"The ancient Russian tradition of hiding behind conscripts." :)

[Ludvigvanamadeus]

the mighty Russian military managed to advance all the way from Kiev to Kursk in just 900 days of a 3-day special operation, truly one of the military achievements of all time.

[blaiseutube]

As expected, the sarcasm in this episode is off the charts.

[First-Last_name]

I saw a nice column of Canadian senator APCs rolling into russia. Nice to see Canadian equipment having a role in this historic moment. This is devastating to the russkiye mir.

[willbadura]

"Not that far removed from the Death Corp of Kreig playbook" bro im dying😂😂😂😂

[TheBozodclown]

500 views per minute? People were positively salivating for this.

[r.a.acosta]

0:28 😂 "Preferrably commanded by General Lapin" Less than 1 minute into the video, and he's already roasting someone! I love this channel.

[gabrielmarquez]

"less combat experience than your average paramedic" probably true 😂