Can America's Missile Defense Intercept a Nuclear ICBM?

What if an intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile was launched at the continental United States homeland? Would the US defense system be about to shoot it down? How much warning would we have to choose how to respond?

The US homeland ballistic missile defense architecture centers on the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system, or GMD for short. It is designed to protect all 50 states from a limited long-range ballistic missile attack. Remember when I was talking about how, broadly speaking, these defense systems work by tracking, then destroying before impact? Well, broadly speaking, the GMD works like that: after detecting a missile launch, GMD’s sensors feed the data into a central control system, which then launches one or more interceptor missiles, which in turn, fly into the path of the incoming missile, release a kill vehicle and destroy the attacker’s missile on impact. But as I said, this is broadly speaking, very broadly. In truth, the GMD is a global system with 11 elements that span 15 time zones, and each element has to be precisely coordinated. And if something fails, everything can go wrong. Mock up of missile defense annual performance review 'Shows great potential, but tends to space out at critical moments.”

According to Annie Jacobsen’s book Nuclear War a scenario in which she interviewed the actual military and civilian experts who built these weapons; and developed all the response plans; she outlined how modern day satellite missile tracking can detect a ICBM launch in just seconds. Technology for detecting threats has vastly improved. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the technology has solved the age old problem of hitting a bullet with another bullet so to speak. Detecting and tracking is very different from shooting down. A new developments in submarine and air launched missiles means instead of 30 minute window it could be as little as 15 minutes to reach their targets. But first,

Let’s talk about the elements that make the GMD what it is, starting with how it tracks missiles, and then we’ll dive into how it destroys them. The GMD tracking depends on seven types of sensors: land, sea, and space.

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[thefreem]

If you live in a city that was targeted by an ICBM with a nuke and that payload was destroyed by one of these systems... you would consider it money well spent.

[mharley]

Being an American is constantly finding out that your country has some crazy technology with stations in multiple other countries and has spent billions of dollars on it and you never even knew about it.

[tjpatton]

Am I crazy or just American for thinking 100 billion dollars for missile defense isnt enough?

[toddr]

In the 80’s I was stationed on Shemya. I got a tour of the Cobra Dane radar. It was pretty cool. I went on in my military career to work with other highly classified systems. What I learned was, the general public doesn’t find out what we really have until about 20 years after we put it into service, in most cases.

[speedy]

So long as nukes are pointed at us we should never take our defenses as acceptable, keep improving cause one failure can literally mean millions dead.

[chartreux]

As a former Soldier of the 23rd Gebirgsjägerbrigade (231st Battalion) of the Bundeswehr i prefer this Channel over most others because it focuses on pretty much all the Conflicts going on in the World. Even the ones most of us Westerners don't even hear much about.
Also of course as a German and therefor European i also appreciate the continueous Coverage of Ukraine which for a lot of us Europeans is especially important because it is so close.
For example. if i'd take my Car and drive to Ukraine right now, it would be about 16 hours, which for Americans i believe is like a casual Drive to another US State.
So having a lot of Coverage on Ukraine by an American Youtuber despite what US Media focuses on at the Moment is really appreciated!
Keep up the great work!
Prost & Cheers from Berchtesgaden in the Bavarian Alps

[justinwilliams]

We've had 44 years of Missile Command to prepare us.

[CMB]

You were fairly correct on most of the GMD facts. The 40 interceptors are in Alaska and four are in California. The success rate is now about 50%. That always happens due to many failures at first and fewer as a system matures. You didn't address, at all, that U.S. missile defense is a three tiered system. GMD is the mid-course phase with an assist from the Aegis BMD system. Mid-tier is handled by Aegis and THAAD, and Patriot is the lower tier system.

Israel has the Iron Dome, David's Sling and Arrow 2 systems. They were made in conjunction with the Missile Defense Agency using U.S. tech and joint contractors. I like the fact that you noted the new NGI contract win by LM. These are all very complex systems. State of the art. If we will ever achieve anywhere near complete success, it will be an iterative process. Meaning, you start with little or no capability and advance to an end state that works. Kyiv has also seen success with Patriot shooting down Kinzhals and Iskanders.

[SteveMHN]

I don't get the critics that say these missile defense systems are flawed because they can be overwhelmed. Isn't 10% getting through much better than 100% getting through?

[sportingsystems]

small correction; Alaska has 40 GBI, Vandenberg is 4. I worked on the Fort Greely Missile field for 12 years.

[greenfire]

Outstanding historical brief on the complicated and difficult task of missile defense.
I grew up in the 1950s-60s within just a few miles of four active Nike, later Hercules, missile bases located high up in the Angeles National Forest north of Los Angeles.
Even visited a silo on a school field trip. Will never forget the empty coffee cans under the missiles catching drips of unknown liquids. (These missiles were stowed horizontally in their silos and erected to near vertical just prior to launch).
My recollection is the Nike/Hercules systems where primarily designed to splash enemy bombers. A kill on a missile would be an unlikely plus.
Kinda' reminds me of the first gen Patriot system. Only designed and intended to defeat manned enemy aircraft- yet Patriot managed to ding a number of Scud missiles in Gulf War I.

[alextasarov]

Limiting the number of defenses instead of warheads is insane. Screw the treaty, we should have as many interceptors as we want.

[dogsbecute]

bros really put a whole ass radar station on a boat and said "i got an idea! lets PUSH IT to north korea! we can track the launch that way, yea?"

[lippertwe]

One reason that each side had so many warheads during the Cold War was that each silo/base had to be targeted with at least one warhead. So it isn't as simple as saying "you only need 5000 warheads to destroy the world several times over". That would be the case if they were airburst fairly evenly over as many population centers as possible. But most nukes targeted other nukes, which means silos, airbases, and naval bases - the first two of which were often in remote areas.

[jdmills]

Great video! This is what I do for a living and you reported pretty darn fairly and accurately about almost everything involving the current state of US BMD!

[dochudson]

I work contracts for these satellites. The whole purpose for them being built is to protect us in the event of a nuclear war. They can track hypersonic missiles so well that any land-to-air missile can shoot them out of the sky. I’m no engineer but being in these meetings and listening to them talk about it is fascinating. No other country but the U.S. has been able to build a network like this.

[craigkdillon]

I remember when Ronald Reagan started America's Star Wars anti-missile missile defense system.
At the time, i thought how stupid. No way to hit a missile with a missile.
They go faster than bullets.
Absurd idea.
Boy, was I wrong.
We can do it.
It is done.
Amazing.

[jeffmcallister]

I have never understood those who say even a limited nuclear defense is useless. Thanks for a great look at a very misunderstood topic.

[luizlamacchia]

Great content as allways! congrats! keep up with the good work!

[dshook]

Working for the agency responsible for the subject you were talking about, I can’t tell you what you got right and wrong in the video. You don’t know the half of what technology and current interceptors we use and have. But you are correct on about 2 generation ago technology and strategy.