Is Russia's Nuclear Weapons Arsenal Broken?

One of the underlying themes of the War in Ukraine is U.S. reticence to fully commit to the fight due to Russian nuclear weapons. However, is it possible that this a phantom menace? Could Russia’s arsenal be beyond a state of repair? This video explores the arguments for why the threat may be empty, and whether they hold any weight under scrutiny.

0:00 Skepticism about Russia’s Nuclear Arsenal
1:07 Basic Nuclear Weapons Maintenance
5:55 Is Russia Incapable of Maintaining Nuclear Weapons?
8:50 Why Russia Is Probably Capable
11:36 Corruption
13:02 Why the West Should Not Bank on Corruption
16:40 Strategic Decay

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

By IAEA Imagebank:

[seannaesseannaes]

It costs 10million every 5 years per nuke to replace the tritium. I am sure there is no corruption here.

[lagautmd]

It's important to add in this fact: Even the US with its dedication of time, scientific expertise, and funding to support its aging arsenal had difficulties. There was a period of time in the mid-2000s when the US realized it didn't have records on how to make a substance named 'Fogbank' that was critical to certain nuclear warheads. It took a couple of years to relearn how to make it so they could do refurbishment of a series of warheads used in submarine launched missiles. Apparently, the stuff was so highly classified that how to make it was never written down (or, more likely, the documentation was lost/destroyed in some kind of routine 'clearing out old files'). If that can happen to the US, imagine how much information in the Soviet Union and Russia is dying as the scientists and engineers, whose brains were the only repositories, are dying.

[yellowcarpet]

came to watch William rant about Russian economics, stayed to watch William rant about nuclear physics

[neonvalkyrie]

10:24 This reminds of that story on how the US department of energy classified the manufacturing proccess of an aerogel-like substance that's used in nuclear bombs. They classified it so hard that they forgot how to make it, so they had to search for the original scientists who worked on it and relearn it. The material is called Fogbank

[lostindixie]

As someone who worked in this area, this is an excellent summary of nuclear weapon maintenance. There are also many mundane items like batteries that need attention.

[TheFinalChapters]

That last minute is by far the most important part of the calculus.

We can make guesses all we want about Russia's nuclear capabilities, but it's a fact that the US is not willing to challenge Russia directly. This tells us pretty firmly that US intelligence believes Russia's nuclear arsenal is at least partially operational.

And thanks to the issue of corruption, the US may have a better idea of Russia's nuclear capabilities than Russia itself.

[vladherasymenko]

I mean, we can't really know if all of the maintenance cycles were respected on all of their nuclear devices. But then again, these guys had sand instead of active protection on their T-90s...

[smb-zfbd]

This is one subject where, oddly, I have information. A good friend, now passed, headed one of the teams sent to Russia to verify reduction of weapons for SORT (and other) agreements. They were stunned at the degradation and this was 2002-2003. "Leaking" nuclear material due to shoddy cladding was common. Electricity problems were rampant. Three were wooden fakes with remarkable details and manned by troops who maintained the pretense. Rust was widespread - doors, openings, machinery. Some had run out of heat and had makeshift fires inside. The winner was a building, door wide open, abandoned. They started inspecting and later three guys in T-shirts came in. After a bit of confusion (communications with authority had broken down ) they explained they were out hunting because they hadn't been paid in a year!!! Talk about a terrorist's wet dream.

This is why Russia has such an affection for the bomber contingent. Even if the submarine nukes and silo nukes were somehow put out of commission there was always the bomber backup. Considering they've virtually ceased maintenance on infrastructure, the idea of not taking care of nukes sounds quite logical.

[GTIdasOriginal]

I once learned a valuable lesson in life. Don't jinx it by openly questioning certain things which may influence the outcome.

[helenrushful]

Putin: "Hey Shogu, heres 10 million dollars (per warhead) to get our nukes sorted, good luck old Shogu: "Cheers mien Fuhrer, I wont let you down". (logs onto Zoopla to find another house to buy in London).

[zimti]

Margarita Simonyan, head of Russia Today, during this war publicly called for Russia to conduct Nuclear weapons tests once

She walked that back fast. VERY fast.

Shortly after she publicly made a statement apologizing, saying she does not know about strategic planning, and that she is just a "Dumb Broad"

Thats right, she had to publicly humiliate herself by calling herself "Dumb Broad"

Someone in the Kremlin must have told her off harshly, which raises the obvious question:

Are they afraid that the test would... fail?

If they publicly fail to test a nuclear weapon, Russian deterrence towards the West AND CHINA is gone

[vankraken]

Unreliable nukes aren't really an issue for deterrence as nobody wants to roll the dice to see if those strategic nukes are a dud. It's a huge liability for tactical nuclear application as you risk your limited nuclear strike (trying to destroy a troop concentration for example) being a dud and the world reacting as if you detonated a nuke but without the military benefit of the nuclear strike.

[jeskcjg]

Russia's pre l war military annual budget was 60 billions US Dollars. That's total budget, which includes personnel, R&D, bureocracy, manufacturing and maintenance. And maintenance of their nukes and ballistic missiles. Not counting the massive corruption.

Now, due to nuclear decay, the fissile material of nukes have to be recycled at least every 15 years, otherwise it becomes useless.

The US spends 50 billion dollars on the maintenance of their nukes ALONE.

Now, Russia has, in theory, MORE nukes than the US.

I'll let you all draw your own conclusions.

[scotth]

don’t need all of their weapons to work, just a handful of the 5600.

[petesalomone]

AT LAST!!! When Russia invaded I noted many trucks lost their tires because they aged and were not replaced. It made me think the readiness stats were grossly overstated. I asked myself what about the readiness of everything going up to missiles & warheads. Excellent video.

[casbot]

If Putin wanted to actually use a nuclear weapon, the generals would ask him to show them on a map where he wants to hit.
And the map would just so happen to be on the fifth floor, next to a open window....

[Thetarget]

As a physicist I can tell you that, while the Russian education system might generally be in bad shape, Russian physicists are still considered world class and their physics education is considered really good, although often lacking funding for experiments, which leads them to have a higher proportion of theorists. So I would not think that Russia is incapable of producing enough nuclear experts, although I cannot say anything about the skilled technical labourers required.

My own guess is that the Russian nuclear arsenal is 95% non-functional or such, but that they maintain a small quantity of actually working missiles and warheads with strict oversight, probably on their subs or something similar.

[mjly]

AI putting Tsar Bomba in 1990? Really? That is a major mis-statement. So, in addition to regressive degeneration, AI can't cross-check itself. I see... trouble.

[thelukkman]

watch the netflix documentary "Turning Point" .. ep 7 talks about "Project Sapphire"..after Khazikstan separated from USSR in 1991, they had a massive arsenol of uranium for nukes..US Ambassador, Andy Weber arrived there for a mtg and a random taxi driver picked him up at the airport, then said to him "would you like to buy some enriched uranium"?!! .. As you do .. Weber, of course, says "yes" .. a few days later, a KGB Colonel passes him a note saying "600 kg, 90% highly enriched uranium bombfuel - available if you want it" ..(enough for 25 nukes) .. it was sitting in a random old warehouse somewhere, with just a cheap antique padlock on the door..all the town wanted was enough $$ to support their people with the sale $$..the US paid $30 million, they said Iran would've paid BILLIONS .. .. they say there is still A LOT of missing uranium in random places

[Klooch]

Would not want to be the one "rollin' the dice" on how many of the damn things are going to parody a second sun versus how many are going to cook off on the launchers.