Are Programmers Obsolete?

Transcript:

Naval: The democratization of apps will continue. But remember, the web made it a lot easier to build web pages, too. So the bar went up. So then you need interactive web pages. So a lot more people learn how to build interactive web pages. So the bar went up. So people built apps. And a lot of people learn how to build basic apps. So the bar went up. So now people build very sophisticated apps. So yes, there will be much more long tail capability to build simple software. And this will have a huge impact, especially in the enterprise, where they just have a hard time hiring programmers. But that said, at least on the consumer side, on the mass consumption side, all this will do is raise the bar. It just means that the apps a year from now, two years from now, are going to look absolutely freaking amazing compared to the apps today.

Naval: Put another way, programmers are not these magical elves who have learned this secret esoteric ritual which nobody else can learn and understand. Programmers are simply the people who are so dedicated to building software that they're willing to stay at the edge of the craft and learn and use every tool no matter how sophisticated or complex it is. Today's programmers use a different set of tools and languages as will tomorrow's. So tomorrow's programmers will be doing natural language programming but they will be every bit as dedicated, skilled, intense, and applying effort as in the past. So I still don't think that high-end computing gets democratized. Here is the key difference. The key difference is that when you program something, software can go to a billion users and it's the same software. So people always just demand the best. As opposed to where if we're digging ditches and now we all get bulldozers, it is truly democratized because one ditch is not better than the others and building more ditches still takes more effort. So because programming is winner-take-all within a given domain, the specialist programmer will continue to dominate over the journalist who's just telling the computer to write the code.

John: It's like moving up the hierarchy of needs. Once you trivialize one layer, you actually free yourself up to focus on the next layer.

Zbynek Drab: So the ideal large language model is sort of like the reverse of the genie from the classic fairy tales where you typically get exactly what you asked for but something else than you meant and a well-designed language model will give you exactly what you mean no matter how clumsily and crudely you phrase it.

[brandopp]

so basically: become a niche programmer or a programmer entrepreneur, the all day job programmer will get automated, without doubt, Saas is the primarily source for programming jobs. Programming as we know it will change, will be based on NLP-first, will be more accesible, as more accesibility means you have to provide a better product than before, distribution will be the only true thing that matters

[rosszeiger]

The bar for software just keeps getting higher and we’re here for it.

[snarkyboojum]

Only if you want software that is derivative and not written very well - which is probably a large part of existing software :) If you want well written code, well optimised, and creative solutions/implementations, existing LLM approaches won't cut it - but again, that's probably a every diminishing amount of software these days.

[fuzzy-]

Us Programmers are pursuers of ascension to higher dimensions through abstractions.

Every time we have enough foundations built, we abstract them to not worry about it and ascend higher.

Now. Some still want to tweak and customize their foundations and they can do so by simply climbing back down.

I only hope a spaceship some 300 years later won't break down because of an error code and when they open up the code to fix it... its not NLP but Cobol lol

[asdakuhih]

"Software can go to a billion users and its the same software"

but, scalabity is something that needs to thought with way before any code is written. Making complex systems is not something ive seen genAi do well yet

[saishashi]

One day AI will write entire code checks bugs, makes changes as per requirement and gives software as output.

[fuzzy-]

We are digitals cultivators. Ascending through abstraction.

[erikberg]

But what if I want to be a magical elf?

[L____IIII]

Looking at your other content, what authority and experience do you have to soeak of SWE?

[ishitvyas]

"Today's programmers use a different set of tools and languages as will tomorrow's." This guy doesn't know a shit about programming world.